rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
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Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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Thank you. I see the firing-up of the circulation now off the Honduran coast. I just wondered if it too would move east before north. I guess time will tell.
Edited by rmbjoe1954 (Wed Jun 08 2005 04:48 PM)
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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I think we may have by Friday.Maybe even Thursday evening.There is a spin starting. 
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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Beaujolais
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 20
Loc: Kenner, LA but displaced in VA...
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Anyone along the Alabama Coast and points Eastward be on special guard.
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Displaced Cajun
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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There is no reason to be alarmed yet.It is simple something to watch.Maybe a kick in the butt for people that have not gotten there supples. 
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
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Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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I understand that the water temperature is awfully warm; I do I believe we will get a storm out of this mix, See how it's starting to band around the circulation, and so close to the Honduran coastline?
Wow.
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________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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Orlando, FL
Unregistered
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No matter what this system does, Florida is going to get a lot more rain, and we certainly don't need it.
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Cocoa Beach
Unregistered
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Pressure dropping and the winds are picking up:
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MWCR.html
Link to Kingston Jamacia:
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MKJP.html
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Bloodstar
Moderator
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Loc: Tucson, AZ
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Looks like it's coming from Louisiana, and it looks like it's got a little while before it arrives. So, we got a little bit of time to speculate before we get more information. It looks like the center is around 17N 84.5W and moving due north. Using good ole Mark I eyeball on the sat loops, if the circulation is closed... it is just barely closed. It's a real coin toss to say if recon will generate a vortex data message, But I'll go ahead and say yes they will. The storm is generating T numbers of 1.0/1.0 and there seems to be enough organization to give it the benefit of the doubt (particularly with the increasing convection near the center).
any other thoughts?
-Mark
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
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Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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Thanks, Mark-
Your acute analysis fits in with what is certainly looking to be our first named storm of the season.
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________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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Wingman51
Weather Guru
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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I'm curious about the impact of variable SST's on develpoment. I know that current area is in the area of 86 degrees but it will have to move over some cooler water (82 to 84) Can that create problems for development?
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AMK
Unregistered
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82-84 degree water as opposed to 86 may retard development a little, but it is certainly warm enough for any depression or tropical storm to strengthan
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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I am not covinced that this going to end up in the gulf.Looks like it maybe moving enough east,so that when it does turn north, the keys and south Fl maybe under the gun.I hope I am wrong,we have had 10 straight days of rain,with very little sun. 
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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[RECCO | INVEST (90L) OB #5] Time: 1848Z; Lat: 21.6°N; Long: 86.1°W; Turbulence: None; Flt Condition: Clear; Flt Level: 22999ft; Flt Winds: SW (210°) @ 15 mph; Temp: 3°F; Dewpoint: 3°F; Weather: Overcast Skies; SFC Winds: N/A; Remarks: None
Recon in Yucatan Channel
Edited by Jamiewx (Wed Jun 08 2005 06:58 PM)
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HF at work
Unregistered
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the circulation still looks very broad on visible, so I've got a hunch that even though recon will find a closed low, there's a chance there won't be an upgrade. surface winds in the area are probably 25-30kt though. it's a depression in my book, but the makes those sorts of calls, not i. we'll have us an tomorrow one way or another.
watching that low level swirl over near 24/55. it was blowing some decent convection overnight, but that decoupled this morning. it's near the center of an upper trough right now, and starting to deal with some significant subsidence. whether anything can develop over there is just a matter of matching the upstream diffluent region of the upper trough with some decent convergence along the surface trough... getting that to happen is always the trick. small potatoes right now compared to 90L/formative .
HF 2003z08june
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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru
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Posts: 161
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after spending the fall and winter cleaning up , I am not terribly interested in another hurricane...however, it is what it is...
this will be a ho hummer...nuthing much happens till August, does it?...
what are the potentials with the SST's where they're at?...probably not much above a storm or weak cat 1...
hope to learn a lot..this site gets better every year...I still consider myself a NOVICE...and that's stretching it a bit...
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
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Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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I also believe that the circulation is moving ENE. It spells for a wet weekend in Florida.
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________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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as time goes on, it is looking more and more that whatever develops will be similar to Gordon in 2000 (which it seems to be developing similarly to) in the sense that it will probably be lopsided with most of the weather to the east
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Loc:
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ftlaudbob -- it's really drifting right now, moreso than any definitive movement. A northward path is likely early on in its life, give or take a little either side of north. Once it gets into the Gulf & the ridge builds in (assuming it does), it should move more to the west. Depending on how close it gets to Florida & how strong it is, it could either enhance rainfall or create a very warm, dry day over land (due to subsidence outside the storm's envelope).
Another asked a question about variable SSTs: the lower SSTs reduces the amount of heat content for a storm and generally tends to limit the maximum end of the intensity, but it's moreso the depth of the warm water that is important as opposed to just warm SSTs. The SSTs are warm in the east Gulf, for instance, but the depth of that warmth is very shallow; the storm will churn the waters there and, coupled with rainfall cooling the atmosphere/waters as well, result in a very small amount of heat content available to even maintain intensity. In the central Gulf, however, SSTs are warmer, as are the sub-surface SSTs. A storm wouldn't have too much trouble there. The important depth is about 60m...a normal storm won't churn up a lot below there.
Satellite representation of the storm continues to get better with time; numbers from SSD are 1.0, probably trending higher now, and recon will be there shortly to (hopefully) provide more data. Next QuikSCAT should be in the next 6hrs; not sure about the microwave satellite imagers. If current trends continue, we should have a depression sometime today or early tomorrow. Only time will tell from there.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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[RECCO | INVEST (90L) OB #6] Time: 1908Z; Lat: 20°N; Long: 85.3°W; Turbulence: None; Flt Condition: In/Out of clouds; Flt Level: 22999ft; Flt Winds: VRB @ 6 mph; Temp: 5°F; Dewpoint: 5°F; Weather: Overcast Skies; SFC Winds: N/A; Remarks: None
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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FNMOC now list this as '01L.One' - first depression of the season. expect advisories at 2100z.
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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