Storm Cooper
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
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http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/atcfwb/docs/database/new/database.html
to add to what Jason gave you here are some more models and their defs.
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Still looking at TD#1 folks, I fixed some of the automated position stuff on the site, and added back the chat link on the left.
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Rabbit
Weather Master
Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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it seems to be developing like Gordon in 2000
that was in September, but we havent had a June TD in the Caribbean in a decade
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cyclone_head
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 74
Loc: Florida
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Looks like most of the gang is all here. First post of the new season for me. Usually it is in July but here we are in early June with the first TD.
Looking at the model runs...funny to see not being the outlier. I see a couple of new ones too.
I don't like the fact that Florida is on the wet side of TD1. We are already saturated here in Central Florida.
Nice seeing all of ya's.
Ed, Mike, LI Phil, Colleen, wxman.
Rick
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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator
Reged: Tue
Posts: 342
Loc: St. Cloud, FL
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am I reading the outflow right that it is already all the way to central Florida? That is quite a distance for outflow, isn't it?
Seems, if nothing else, we could see quite a rain even across central florida thru the panhandle.
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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The Flhurricane IRC chat room is open to anyone who wants to chat...just hit the chat link to the left and join us!
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Jason Kelley
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JohnM
Unregistered
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is this a very small island?
ESTIMATE LOW CENTER OVER ISLAS DEL CISNE AT POSITION 17.4N 083.9W
Per OB 20
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StormHound
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 187
Loc: Orlando, FL
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I guess I had it wrong. It's the Scary-Meter. They must have spent four or five minutes on TD1, even showing Colleen's Cone of Death already. LOL.
The Scary-Meter has moved up to a 2 today, apparently it was a 1 yesterday. I'd give it a minus 2 for Orlando, but that's just me.
Jason, do you have a Scary-Meter?
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Storm Hound
Computer Geek
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Domino
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 191
Loc: Makati City, Philippines
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I went to a speech over the weekend given by Jim Lushine with the NWS who seemed quite convinced that the wet spring we've had in Florida would mean no storms for Florida this year. This being due to the position of the Bermuda high. I am kinda thinking this would be the case in a "normal" year - but I believe the weather pattern we've experienced for the past couple weeks was actually due to enhanced activity tropics (including our current TD) - not due to the Bermuda high being further North/West. Any thoughts on this?
BTW - I am in Fort Lauderdale on business till further notice. Nice of my employer to send me here from Indiana right in time for the season. I have noticed since I have been here that the TV stations seem to be the most hyped-up people on earth. This week its "Trouble in the tropics" but every day they are trying to scare people with something new...
Edited by Domino (Wed Jun 08 2005 10:48 PM)
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Quote:
Jason, do you have a Scary-Meter?
it's called a mirror... 
seriously folks, lets try to keep the posts of a "serious" nature...there'll be plenty of time for humor and giddiness when the heart of the season taxes us all and we need a break...
scare-o-meter...my god, what will they think of next
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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MikeG
Unregistered
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looks like landfall around 8pm sat near or just west of mobile?
sat landfall as a TS
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javlin
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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I saw those storms over Honduras if only they could get pulled in would I believe of some benefit fo renergy.I think lastest advisory takes into your consideration some still loose but now @30kts.I believe it was 25kts earlier.The SW quad seems to be the inhibiting factor now
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Southern4sure
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 121
Loc: Land O Lakes, FL
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Looks like I moved away from Mobile, AL just in the nick of time.....lol...but now I live just north of Tampa...Does that make me a hurricane chaser?
Teresa I think it makes you a Hurricane fleer...LOL...JK
Edited by wxman007 (Wed Jun 08 2005 10:59 PM)
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Southern4sure
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 121
Loc: Land O Lakes, FL
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I say chaser because Im told to expect more of last year here....
Teresa
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Jeffmidtown
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 132
Loc: Atlanta, Ga
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First off a hearty hawyalldurrin from Atlanta. It seems just yesterday or the day before we were talking about , but on to this year. Yes the local mets here at 2 and 5 have been discussing this storm albeit briefly, but the only time to worry I think is when Jim Cantore is in your backyard....literally.
Ironic though, that the first TD of the season fires up right during hurricane week on and today's show was on ...
Now for the dumb question of the night.....I thought that there were two highs, one in GOM and one off Bermuda, and I thought that a high would retard any development of storms in the nearby area?
TTFN
Jeff
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You know it's a bad day.....when you wake up and see Jim Cantore and Geraldo Rivera broadcasting from your backyard....literally!
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Droop31
Weather Watcher
Reged: Wed
Posts: 32
Loc: Pensacola
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Theres a high or ridge to the east of our depression, the bermuda high and a trough in the gulf. Thats what all the dry air over the gulf is from. the models continue to show this trough backing west and the ridge sliding into eastern gulf this weekend. A ridge over a storm is a good thing(if you want to call it that) it helps in ventilating the storm, so intensification can take place. So to answer your questions, high pressure over a storm is a plus for development. Remember no dumb questions. Were all learning. Im sure a pro could correct me if Im wrong though, it can be pretty complicated. Have a good night.
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Rabbit
Weather Master
Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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shortwave IR
URL repaired
this is the best satellite for night time viewing
if you look near 18N/84W convection, the center appears to be tightening just a tad; i dont see the multiple vorticies i saw earlier either
Edited by SkeetoBite (Thu Jun 09 2005 12:44 AM)
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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Evening everyone, well here everyone is again. Nice to see everyone back educating me. Colleen, you cracked me up last year and your off to a good start already. Excellent site changes by the way!!!! The site keeps getting better. Anyway, talk about persistent, is this basically the same low that has been down there for about 2 weeks now. Getting everyone at the job perked up again  )) No spellcheck, how did I do )
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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mysticalmooons
Weather Watcher
Reged: Tue
Posts: 30
Loc: rockledge, fl
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I may just be a moron however, This is from the 12:30 image ( as java will not install on my machine for some odd reason) So I dont have the option of loop images.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/IR4/20.jpg
I was just thinking of all the convection the the eastern side and a more closed pattern as far as water vapor goes, What are the chances of the center pushes more eastern a few degress then hitting T.S status?
Just a question. Im sure it wont happen just had to bring it up .
Edited by mysticalmooons (Thu Jun 09 2005 12:43 AM)
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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That thought has been tossed about previously. Regarding your JAVA issue, did it work before? Go to Control Panel, click on JAVA icon, advanced tab. Try 2 things, in Java parameters, type in the words only (as shown), or try hitting reset, you can also go to update tab and click update now.
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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