SirCane
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
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Hey everyone. I like the new look of the site! Anyway, this isn't a very good situation for those of us up here that were hit by . A lot of people are still living in FEMA trailers and there are still many blue roofs. Not something you expect to happen in early June, but it does happen. Just seems strange to be in the path of a storm so early--especially after being hit by a storm of the magnitude of less than a year ago.
Any chance this hits minimal hurricane strength in the gulf like Allison of 1995?
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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I just looked at the visibles, and it appears to me that seems to be getting her act together. It almost appears that it's trying wrap around the center, although all the convection appears to still be on the eastern side. Will be interesting to see what the 11:00am advisory gives us.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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From the 330am MLB Discussion
"TRACK OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH TO THE PENINSULA PROJECTED ON SAT MAY BRING OUTER RAINBAND CONVECTION."
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LI Phil
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Quote:
Phil -- not being off-topic or flippant, just curious as to why I would be in the Cone of Death. 
hey...i didn't make those maps...you got a beef, you take it up with the map master...
but...wouldn't you rather be in the "cone of death" for a TS than a CAT IV?
glad everyone's on top of things, but me thinks this is gonna be a nice rainmaker and a good "safe" kickoff to 2005
"fasten your seatbelts-2005" (new slogan??? beats TSFH thats fer sher)
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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tpratch
Moderator
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Posts: 339
Loc: Maryland
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11am is up.
raw stuff:
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.1 WEST
OR ABOUT 190 MILES... 305 KM...WEST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 165
MILES... 270 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.
ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH ...13 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BRINGING THE CENTER NEAR
OR OVER WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN
AIR FORCE PLANE WILL CHECK THIS AFTERNOON.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM
TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.
HEAVY RAINFALL...ACCOMPANIED BY SQUALLS...IS SPREADING ACROSS THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS...AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN FLORIDA KEYS. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH ....MAINLY TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...19.4 N... 84.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
EDT.
FORECASTER AVILA/KNABB
Edited by tpratch (Thu Jun 09 2005 02:48 PM)
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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru
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Posts: 161
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indicates a lot of dry air west, and it will be interesting to see if that situation changes. If the tropical storm stays lopsided, anyone on the west side will pretty much have a non-event. actually, even if it hits dead on.....but for those, say, 50 miles east and more..on the east side....that is where the rainmaker event of at least 15 inches in the worst cases will occur.
the only thing that can't be completely guaranteed...is if the storm begins to wrap around...and it doesn't appear likely, with all the dry air. Look for a beautiful day as the storm approaches you, since all the heat and humidity will be rushing toward it....
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Phil...I didn't mean the maps on HERE, I meant the maps that Orlando's Fox News gave out. That's why I am so curious! 
And yes, I would rather be in the "Cone of Death" for a TS than a Cat IV. That's a given! 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Katie
Weather Guru
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Posts: 167
Loc: Winter Haven, FL
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Okay, advise please.
News Channel 8 (John Winter) out of Tampa Bay said this morning that there was a very good chance that our weather was going to be affected over the weekend by . Giving us a 60% chance of rain and said that it could go up.
What is the real possibility of that happening?
I am trying to plan my daughter's second birthday party for Saturday at 4 and one of the things I got her is for outside. I would really like to be able to set it up for the other kids to enjoy to but, if the weather is going to be nasty - I won't so that she doesn't get bummed by not being able to play on it.
Any ideas out there? I am just East of Tampa in Polk County. I am just curious if I should just leave it boxed up for another week and plan the BBQ for indoors.
Thanks!
Katie
P.S. or Mike C, I need your help, I may be contacting you in a little bit. Phil suggested I talk to you. Thanks!
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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Want to make sure I am looking in the right place, you are referring to west of east of you?
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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Was it just me or did anyone and everyone get kicked off or have blank pages?
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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site crashed for a min I think
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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We will (are) be getting the outer bands from , so John Winter is correct. A lot of the mets are saying that they may have to "up" those rain chances before all is said and done. The thunderstorms are already beginning to pop and they are from , believe it or not. Sheesh.
As for your daughter's birthday party, I would watch the weather over the next day and see what they are telling you. If you have an 80-90% chance of rain, you may want to hold it indoors or you may want to put it off. But, as you know, living in Florida means we can get rain at any time. I'm in Polk county, too.
Don't know if that helped or not (probably not) but my best advice is to go with whatever your gut tells you. No matter what happens, things usually turn out fine.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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andy1tom
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
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it took me forever to get the pages to come up and i have no maps just the x factor???
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MikeC
Admin
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Posts: 4544
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Quote:
Was it just me or did anyone and everyone get kicked off or have blank pages?
That was me modifying some things and forgetting to change a setting. It's fixed now.
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FlaMommy
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 225
Loc: Tampa(Riverview), Florida
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i couldnt get in for a good 10 minutes.....on another note....the chances for tampa bay keeps going up ...first it was 5 now its 7 in less than a 24 hr period,,,any thoughts on that?....
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"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Quote:
Quote:
Was it just me or did anyone and everyone get kicked off or have blank pages?
That was me modifying some things and forgetting to change a setting. It's fixed now.
ok...when i got to work the maps were there...now i get the dreaded red x again 
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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Let me try this again, my response was basically the same as Colleen's. We are and have been feeling this already and unless an amazing shift happens, we will continue. Happy B-day to the little one, my son's is actually the 11th
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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ok...when i got to work the maps were there...now i get the dreaded red x again
Maps are back up, good job!
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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HCW
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
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Does anyone think that we may be seeing center trying to get under the convection and more east shift in the forecast track ?
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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Actually we are not getting rainbands from yet. Closest bands are near the keys. Currently the thunderstorms getting developing over central florida are from a deep Se flow off the Atlantic interacting with a trough of lower pressure over florida and the eastern gulf. So the flow may look like its from all the way up to the panhandle/
With regards to the Fox guy in Ft Myers saying landfall might brush Ft Myers, I think he ment the steady heavy rainfall with amounts up to 5 inches. Most of the weather is to the E of the center. should slowly become better organized. If she does get under a large TS complex then she could intensify rapidly up to 65-70mph with a pressure down to 995mb during a 6-12 hour time frame. Currently she looks pretty much as I said yesterday. Alot of dry air to her W with deep tropical mositure to her east moving up thru florida. Landfall looks like the Panhandle of Florida from just east of Pensecola to Panama City if she gets stronger, but if she stays around 1000mb or higher then landfall could be more w near the Al-Miss border. Nevertheless most of the heavy rain and small spawned tornados will be near or east of the center up to 200 miles.
scottsvb
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