HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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Recon indicates that 's weaker convective pattern is generating lesser winds than late yesterday, now at 60 MPH. The central pressure is at 991 Mb, not far removed from it's lowest point yesterday at 989.
Much of the weather from is already onshore, with the weak partial feature ringing the eye coming onshore in the next two hours. Landfall will occur around 20Z, or 2PM Central Daylight time right near the AL/FL line between Orange Beach and Pensacola Beach.
On the immediate coastline sustained winds 50-60 MPH with gusts to near hurricane force may occur in the stronger bands. Once that's done, there is still scattered convection from outer bands from the Central Panhandle, east over the Peninsula and much of Georgia. Steadier rains along the northwestern side of the storm are occuring near the AL/MS line and over Northern Alabama.. this should be where the highest precip totals occur and spread north through the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys over the next day or two. There may be some peripheral severe weather as it moves north, but there has been little so far. Modeling maintains 's low and tracks it off the Northeast coast next week as an system.
There are model rumblings in the Caribbean, with a disturbance persistently appearing near Jamaica going into early next week. The pattern will have changed by then and probably keep such a feature away from the U.S., but it will be an interesting feature to watch. The other former disturbance, 91L, is a fading low level swirl in a sheared, strong subsidence environment southwest of Bermuda.
Arlene may have bucked the trend, but since it's June these things have to work extra hard to get going.
HF 1900z11june
Event Related Links
Mark Sudduth at Gulf Shores
Northwest Florida Long Range Radar Loop
Key West long range radar loop
Tallahassee, FL long range radar loop
Tampa Long Range Radar loop
Color Sat of
Animated model plots for
Electronic Map Wall (PSU)
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Edited by MikeC (Sat Jun 11 2005 06:18 PM)
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Storm Cooper
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
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This will work also. Thanks for the help HF.
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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KN4LF
Unregistered
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#33 Published Saturday June 11, 2005 at 2:00 pm EDT
A weakening T.S. is now moving north at 15 mph with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph. Extrapolating using Mobile NWS NEXRAD imagery 's center will come ashore at Pensacola within a couple of hours as a tropical storm.
Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
kn4lf@arrl.net
NWS Tampa Bay, FL SKYWARN Observer #HIL-249
Plant City, FL NWS CWOP Weather Station #AR692 Live Data: http://www.kn4lf.com/index1.html
Plant City, FL NWS CWOP Weather Station #AR692 3 Minute Data: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.html
Plant City, FL Daily Climatological Weather Data Archive Blog: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf22.htm
Florida Daily Weather Discussion Blog: http://www.kn4lf.com/flwx1.htm
Florida Raw Weather Forecasting Product Links: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf13.htm
Global Warming Refuted: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf42.htm
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damian
Unregistered
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What do you guys/gals think of the area of disturbed weather near Puerto Rico? NOAA says they dont think it will be much because upper level winds are not favorable at this time. They expect the disturbed area to work its way westward over the next few days. Whats your take???
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damejune2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
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What do you guys/gals think of the area of disturbed weather near Puerto Rico? NOAA says they dont think it will be much because upper level winds are not favorable at this time. They expect the disturbed area to work its way westward over the next few days. Whats your take???
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Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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Based on all data available one can't dispute the ' take on that area of disturbed weather. However, that status can change if it enters a less hostile environment.
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________2024 Forecast: 28/14/8________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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Storm Cooper
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
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There are a few models hinting at some activity. Have to give it a few days and see.
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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damejune2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
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Thanks! You know....in all my years (almost 20) that i have lived in florida, i have never seen a season like last year. I always sat here and watched these cat 4's and 5's (and others) come up close and then take that usual right turn towards open sea/bermuda/NC or SC. I live on the west coast of florida and i think the worst for me was Jeanne. She came within 50 miles of our house, although weakened pretty good by then, she still packed a greater punch on us here than or . came close as well, but all the bad stuff was on the eastern and southern side when it came by - hence all the damage in inland counties like Hardee and Desoto. Anyway, sorry to go on, but i am new here and just wanted to tell my story. One more note and the guy from LI may remember this - Until last year, my only exp with an actual Hurricane was in Connecticut in September 1985 - I believe it was Gloria. The eye of the cane went right over our house....over 50 miles inland. The only thing damaged was an apple tree. No power loss, no property damage.
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Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Quote:
One more note and the guy from LI may remember this - Until last year, my only exp with an actual Hurricane was in Connecticut in September 1985 - I believe it was Gloria. The eye of the cane went right over our house....over 50 miles inland. The only thing damaged was an apple tree. No power loss, no property damage.
I assume "I" am that "guy from LI...
oh yeh...i remember gloria...gloria sucked...my family of course had no cable in 85 (though the whole block did) so there was no coverage...we had our local NY stations, and while they did play her up, coverage was nowhere near where it is today...we didn't have any damage to the house or yard (lost many small limbs, but no trees uprooted or anything major)...but we did lose power....and to make a very long story as short as possible, didn't get it back for a week...now this is nothing compared to what florida faced last year, but it is sort of amazing considering the damage from Gloria was rather minimal...at the time, we were serviced by a private power company (LILCO = Long Island Lighting COmpany) and the company president was on vacation...in one of the worst PR moves of all time, he didn't rush back but instead was like, "f--- you"...which started the down fall of the second largest private power supplier in the country and the reason why we now have government regulated power...
gloria (whose name WAS retired) wasn't one of the most memorable LI canes, but she was really the most recent...Bob '91 passed to our east, and Floyd '99 (where I met Jim Cantore, btw) was a TS by the time he reached us are our closest since then...
anyone interested in Gloria can find some interesting stuff in the link. 
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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damejune2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
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Thanks for the info! Yes, you are that LI guy! I didn't know your name, sorry for the "that guy" reference. I have family all through New England, some of which used to live here and i have a joke with them now - as soon as they leave, BAM! All these storms start coming through. The last two to leave left last April and i remember them emailing (what no phone call, what kind of family is that!!!) me to see if we were ok. They just assumed we had power i guess....idiots! The only thing on my mind the weekend Gloria came through was Riverside Park in Mass. We went there every year labor day weekend, usually on Saturday and i was worried we wouldn't get to go because of the storm. Selfish? Maybe, but i was only 12!!!
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Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
Edited by damejune2 (Sat Jun 11 2005 07:00 PM)
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ljmax
Registered User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 4
Loc: Ocala
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Hello all! My name is Jim and I'm new to this forum and look forward to chatting with all of you. It looks as if most of the people in 's path will escape with very little damage from winds but I wonder if they suffered any serious water damage? Anyone know?
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Never argue with an idiot as they will only drag you down to their level and beat you with experience!
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Back form ...thankfully not as bad as it could've been, but the damage from along the coast still remains to a large degree. It's going to be years before that area recovers from that storm. There's more on the blog; now, a rest before we start watching the low some of the models try to spin up in a few days' time.
Edit: I'll reiterate what I noted on the blog here, and thanks to Terra and Danny, both here and in PM, for expressing their concerns about the matter and kicking some sense into me to remember to add this. I, my employer, and the do not condone storm chasing. It is a dangerous exercise with great potential for danger, particularly with regards to amateur and media participation in such activities. If a storm threatens you, don't go out and chase it....get away from it.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
Edited by Clark (Sun Jun 12 2005 01:30 AM)
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Looks like you dodged most of the bullets. I'm sorry that you missed the landfall, but you ended up in the correct quadrant of a ' landfalling tropical storm'.
Should the storm make a last minute jog to the left you could still maintain some separation from the NE Quadrant.
I noticed that some of the media were shooting from the center or NE quadrant. Worst place to be with a landfalling system. Yes, you can watch the wind and waves on the beachfront. It's the tornadoes in the NE Quad that seem to sneak up on people. Today was an example. Media on the beach as center is crossing the same beach. Tornado warnings go up!
I saw another well known stormcaster get a double eyefull of sand while doing a live shot on the beach. I hope he had lots of eyewash handy.
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Terra
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
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Quote:
I saw another well known stormcaster get a double eyefull of sand while doing a live shot on the beach. I hope he had lots of eyewash handy.
Yea, how stupid can people be... I know it's imporant to 'get the story' but, please, having people stand in harms way to do it is not the brightest idea.... It may have just been a little sand, but personally, I think 's priorities are a little off...
Please note, that this comment is not a personal attack on anyone who may do this as part of their job. I am sure safety is incredibly important to those who do this, I just worry about the unpredicted behaviors of Mother Nature!
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Terra Dassau Cahill
Edited by Terra (Sun Jun 12 2005 01:23 AM)
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Thanks Terra. I thought I was off in left field on that one.
Is the media exempt from OSHA Guidelines?
Or is FL an OSHA exempt state?
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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This post is inspired by a request from HanKFranK about the future evolution of . Bear in mind that it may be slightly technical; please do feel free to ask questions if there is anything that isn't clear!
So, has made landfall along the Florida coastline near Pensacola and is moving across central Alabama as we speak. What lies ahead for the storm? A lot of rain is likely along its path -- 3-5" locally possible -- but what about the structure of the storm itself? Most of the available model guidance is in agreement on gradually recurving the remnants of the storm to the northeast and east, gradually merging with another area of low pressure and moving offshore into the Atlantic in 3-4 days...but as an cyclone. We can get a feel for this by considering the structure of a tropical versus a mid-latitude cyclone.
A tropical cyclone has a warm core, where the temperatures in the center of the storm are warmer than those outside of the storm. It has a profile of winds which, excluding areas close to the surface (where frictional effects play a role), decreases in strength with height, e.g. the winds are stronger closer to the surface. It is driven by energy from its underlying surface, or the warm waters of the oceans, and weakens in response to a loss of that energy as well as other factors such as wind shear & dry air. Its strongest effects are felt very near the center and such systems are generally rather symmetric (convection patterns, wind field, and so on).
An cyclone -- generally speaking -- has a cold core, with temperatures in the center colder than those away form the center. Winds in such a storm increase with increasing height, meaning they are weakest near the surface. A developing cyclone has its upper level center located to the west of the surface center. It is driven by a series of complicated energy conversions in the atmosphere related to strong wind shear -- for those familiar with processes of kinetic and potential energy, it draws kinetic energy for development from potential energy through shearing processes; for those not, just keep the first part in mind. Its greatest impacts are felt far away from the center and such storms are generally asymmetric (convection, wind fields, and so on).
Fundamentally, these are two different situations. So, how can the former -- a tropical cyclone -- become an (mid-latitude) cyclone? This is where the process of transition comes into play. Unfortunately, much remains to be determined with regards to the process lifecycle, but generally transition occurs when the upper-level patterns are favorable for midlatitude surface cyclone development. The tropical cyclone provides an helping hand at triggering this development (assuming it stays strong enough to do so, whether over land or cold water), while the environment itself brings about structural changes upon the cyclone, resulting in the differences between the two types of storms noted above. It is in the step-by-step process as well as a complete physical understanding of how and why all of what occurs actually occurs that there remains work to be done.
Over the next few days, we'll likely see gradually undergo such a process. It is not one limited to storms that recurve offshore in the Atlantic, nor is it limited to hurricanes alone. fits neither of those categories, yet is likely to undergo transition. It may even reintensify after transition, perhaps to a stronger storm than it was during its tropical lifecycle; that remains to be seen. The factors that influence that development are related to the orientation of the trough & ridge pattern in the upper-levels and the position of the storm in relation to those features; a paper will be coming out late this year on this very topic, of which I am a co-author.
Watch satellite imagery over the next few days -- water vapor and infrared -- of the remnants of . Particularly, watch for how the convective elements change between now and 3 or 4 days from now. They will likely become separated well away from the center in curved bands, perhaps even with frontal structures extending east and south of the storm. This is one of the ways to determine an ongoing transition; another is to use model data to analyze the storm, but that is beyond the topic of this post. I'll be happy to provide the link to the page & a personal tutorial on what it all means if anyone is interested, just send me a private message.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Droop31
Weather Watcher
Reged: Wed
Posts: 32
Loc: Pensacola
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Hey guys, Had a fun day today watching from Gulf Breeze, near Navarre. I wasnt expecting much and got much more then I was expecting. We had very strong winds and heavy rain in the band (or eyewall if you wanna call it that) of convection that developed on the eastern edge of s center. Lost power in the neighborhood briefly too. The winds were howling through the trees and we had a fairly large branch end up on our roof but other then that just a bunch of leafs and other foilage to clean up. The winds today though werent very sustained at all, maybe close to 35mph at the most, but some of those gust were ferocious. I'd estimate some gust were around 55-65mph. Didnt last long though, about a good hour of fun and then it was off to work at 3pm. Anyways, looking forward to the rest of the season. This was a good test for all. I'll tell you though, there isnt one complacent person here in Gulf Breeze/Pensacola. I had to work Friday afternoon and night until 9pm and I had never seen the grocery store(Bruno's) so crowded. People almost seemed panicked. I guess thats a good thing because they atleast were preparing theirselves. We nearly ran out of all the essentials. Luckily I got off at 9 and didnt have to worry about re-stocking everything lol. Anways, sorry for the long post. Its been a rather exciting last few days with very little sleep and I will say Im gonna sleep like a baby tonight. Have a good one ya'll and happy tracking.
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Orlando, FL
Unregistered
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Looks like that low pressure center that was previously predicted in the models to become something is gone for the time being.
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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TWO mentioning a couple of areas of disturbed weather this morning, will wait for the next invest i guess, and see if the models start picking something up.
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Storm Cooper
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
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NRL had an invest up yesterday morning but dropped it. I'm going to run some models and see what happens.
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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