Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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Loc: Tampa
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Hey there, based on the way the weekend weather went, I assume you were able to have some bouncing fun outdoors for the little one?
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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Katie
Weather Guru
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Loc: Winter Haven, FL
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Taz - actually, we didn't.
Just before the party started we had some really nasty weather roll through so I just decided to set it up on the porch. It wasn't all that big and was a big help in that it wasn't wet to put it in her bedroom. The party was great - too bad her dad was there - I thought I was going to hang him. Seriously, why do some people feel the need to put down others in front of their friends and family? It doesn't make you look macho. Just like a clown. Anyway, thanks for asking though. She had a great time, if I ever knew how to post pictures on here, I would do it but, I can't even figure out how to resize my avitar correctly so, I am lost!
EDIT: Katie, PM Mike about posting attachments (do not do it in this forum) and i'm sorry but i had to edit a bit of your language regarding your ex...
Edited by LI Phil (Mon Jun 13 2005 08:39 PM)
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Orlando, Florida
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Recon is going out to the Central Caribbean tomorrow, if needed, according to at 5:30pm. Do not see an invest yet.
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CENTRAL CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE.........ADDED
A. 14/2000Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 14/1500Z
D. 16.0N 76.5W
E. 14/1330Z TO 15/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN FIXES AT 15/12Z IF SYSTEM
DEVELOPS.
From MLB Discussion
"LONG RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES PERSISTENCE OF THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST AND EXTENDING INTO THE EASTERN
GULF. MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THAT DEEP TROPICAL AIRMASS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WILL EVENTUALLY WORK NORTHWARD TOWARD THE REGION...WITH
SOME SUGGESTION THAT A DISTINCT TROPICAL LOW COULD TAKE SHAPE
FROM WITHIN THE GENERAL LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE/GYRE THAT HAS
BEEN PRESENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN FOR SEVERAL WEEKS. "
Edited to add MLB AFD
Edited by Jamiewx (Mon Jun 13 2005 09:40 PM)
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Storm Cooper
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Loc: Panama City , FL
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A part of the AFD from Tally...
ALTHOUGH THE
JURY IS STILL OUT ON WHETHER THE UPPER LOW WILL RETROGRADE AS FAR SW
AS THE LAST COUPLE RUNS HAVE INDICATED. THE 00Z VERSION OF THE
MODEL ACTUALLY SHOWS ANOTHER TROPICAL SYSTEM BEING PULLED NWD BY
THIS LOW ACROSS THE ERN GULF ON MON. LET'S HOPE THIS DOESN'T COME TO
PASS.
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Loc: Central Florida
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looks like a low is forming in caribbean just west of the conveciton
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Clark
Meteorologist
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I hate to disagree with the guys down the hall at the TLH NWS, but the 00Z from today doesn't show the Carib feature moving into the Gulf...it doesn't really develop it at all. Instead, along the end of the frontal foundary that is expected to stall out over the area, the & other models develop a weak area of low pressure and bring it across the region. What they may have it mixed up with as well is a weak 850mb vorticity signature heading through the Yucutan channel on Monday in that 00Z run, but it too would likely move around the periphery of the Caribbean "low"...and has no real surface signature.
If anything forms in the W. Carib, it'll likely be a threat to Cuba, the Bahamas, and Bermuda...and not one to Florida. It's gotta develop, first, and while shear tendencies are towards less shear, there's not a surface circulation...yet. Indications are that one may be forming on the western edge of the convection and there is support at 850mb, but all that is there right now is a mid-level circulation. No models have a lot of support for this feature, at least not until it begins to move northeast in the western Atlantic.
At least the isn't so bullish on a Cape Verde storm any longer...
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Storm Cooper
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Loc: Panama City , FL
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Walk on down there and set Wool right 
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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>>> At least the isn't so bullish on a Cape Verde storm any longer...
right now too lazy to check, but have there been any CV longtrackers at this time of the season? anything out there, if it even develops, spins fishes, correct? i just can't seem to recall ANYTHING forming that far east having any affect on even the islands, much less the
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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KN4LF
Unregistered
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If it makes it westward to a point east of Central America where began then it has a chance to become TD #2.
BTW my three day rainfall total from was 7.45".
Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
kn4lf@arrl.net
NWS Tampa Bay, FL SKYWARN Observer #HIL-249
Plant City, FL NWS CWOP Weather Station #AR692 Live Data: http://www.kn4lf.com/index1.html
Plant City, FL NWS CWOP Weather Station #AR692 3 Minute Data: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.html
Plant City, FL Daily Climatological Weather Data Archive Blog: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf22.htm
Florida Daily Weather Discussion Blog: http://www.kn4lf.com/flwx1.htm
Florida Raw Weather Forecasting Product Links: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf13.htm
Global Warming Refuted: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf42.htm
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....
National Hurricane Center NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL922005) ON 20050613 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050613 1800 050614 0600 050614 1800 050615 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.0N 75.5W 16.7N 75.9W 18.8N 76.2W 21.1N 76.2W
BAMM 15.0N 75.5W 16.4N 76.4W 18.1N 77.2W 19.8N 77.7W
A98E 15.0N 75.5W 15.7N 75.9W 16.7N 76.3W 18.4N 76.1W
LBAR 15.0N 75.5W 16.4N 75.9W 18.5N 76.1W 20.6N 75.7W
SHIP 20KTS 23KTS 27KTS 31KTS
DSHP 20KTS 23KTS 23KTS 30KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050615 1800 050616 1800 050617 1800 050618 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 23.3N 76.0W 27.4N 73.5W 32.9N 67.8W 39.9N 60.1W
BAMM 21.6N 77.8W 24.7N 75.1W 28.0N 69.2W 31.1N 65.1W
A98E 19.5N 76.1W 20.5N 74.6W 21.9N 72.8W 24.0N 70.8W
LBAR 22.2N 74.6W 24.1N 70.2W 25.9N 65.9W 28.1N 64.5W
SHIP 36KTS 41KTS 41KTS 35KTS
DSHP 28KTS 36KTS 36KTS 30KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.0N LONCUR = 75.5W DIRCUR = 325DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 14.4N LONM12 = 75.0W DIRM12 = 327DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 13.8N LONM24 = 74.6W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 15KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....
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danielw
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Quote:
I hate to disagree with the guys down the hall at the TLH NWS, but the 00Z from today doesn't show the Carib feature moving into the Gulf...it doesn't really develop it at all. Instead, along the end of the frontal foundary that is expected to stall out over the area, the & other models develop a weak area of low pressure and bring it across the region. What they may have it mixed up with as well is a weak 850mb vorticity signature heading through the Yucutan channel on Monday in that 00Z run, but it too would likely move around the periphery of the Caribbean "low"...and has no real surface signature.
I saw the features in question last night. Thanks to some teachings that I picked up here, I was able to put the "possible" label on the Caribbean 850mb vortice as it died out just west of Ft Myers.
The Cape Verde vortice was performing a unusal 'right hand turn' prior to reaching 60.0 W. Probably skirting the Azores High, or the trough just west of the 60 W longitude line.
Waiting on tonights models, but not getting too enthused about the whole scenario.
I checked the Western Atlantic models from 1800Z today. Still don't see any significant surface or upper air features.
http:www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/index_carib.shtml
edited @ 2355Z 7:55 PM EDT
Edited by danielw (Mon Jun 13 2005 11:57 PM)
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dem05
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Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
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Statement...Input from "MET Blog" folks appreciated.
When a system looks like this in the Carribean, it just usually seems to develop. Seems to be a lot af varying conjecture on this developing system in the meteorology world. A lot of models are trying to grab on to this and move it out to sea (but i also notice the latest publically available shows the Carrib low phasing out for a new one that develops in the Bahamas) , the TPC Tropical Weather Discussion notes northward motion yet the surface analysis shows low level ridging to the north, and the NWS Tally and Tampa talk of a potential tropical system in eastern gulf. There are different schools of thought here.
Anyhow, my thought and question. I notice on water vapor that the Upper level low in the Atlantic seems to be getting streatched by a building high in the eastern and central Carib. (Part digging SW, part digging east). My thought has been that this might fall in between, with the core of the upper low moving east and the SW portion eventually evolving into a cut-off in the SW carribean. Disturbance path somewhare in the middle. Do you concur on this observation?
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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Did see the TLH AFD, and the TBW one. Didn't see anything about the eastern Gulf in Tampa AFD. But did see this
"SINCE WAS THE FIRST AND BEST MODEL IN DETECTING AND DEVELOPING ...IT IS WISE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON TONIGHTS SOLUTION."
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
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Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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I can not tell you anything about the model, but I can tell you that a frog tried to get into my house last night and even when I was nudging him out he was insistent upon entering and did so. Then this morning I saw a large beetle which are not seen around here except when the weather is changing drastically. The only thing I can say about it is that last week a slug appeared on my patio window and we got some of . The more anomalous creatures to my area of the city, the more liklihood of a US impact. My Lab eventually treed the frog so to speak on the patio curtain. The signs are there....
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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I think we need a Met here. As I'm not a Met.
I think you have a firm grasp of the situation. More than I have at the present. If the ridging you speak of extends/ amplifies SW and E then the Greater Antilles, Cuba through Puerto Rico would return to a setup akin to the one a few weeks ago.
An elongated High pressure ridge from East to West.
I'm sure the NWS personnel have much better data than I have here. And much better computers to view it with. I checked the 850mb vorticity products and then checked the 1000mb surface products. I haven't benne able to look past those 2 products yet.
At the surface...yes, there seems to be an area of precip that moves around the western end of Cuba and into the SE GOM. At the same time the 850mb vorticity loop is indicating a vortice (small scale) in teh same area. But the vortice spins down/ dies/ decays before reaching the western coastline of the FL peninsula. That said. The precip continued to move across Southern FL and into the Atlantic.
WIll wait on the 00Z due out around 04:30Z, or 3 hours from now.
The 00 UTC 84hr products are due to be out around 03:03Z. WIth the rest of the models updated after that.
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Heather
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 91
Loc: Sebring, FL
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Everyone in our county seems to be having a problem with snakes and tree frogs trying to get in. At first I thought it was from all the rain we've had, but now that you mention it...makes me think. Kind of like the animals during the tsunami. Guess I'll stay tuned.
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When it rains, it pours...
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Quote:
Kind of like the animals during the tsunami. Guess I'll stay tuned.
They may be remembering last years weather...if they were around then. Premonition among animals. Now there's a topic for study.
It works to some degree here-60 miles inland. The cows are normally lying down well before the rain starts. I guess they don't like to lie on wet grass either.
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Domino
Weather Guru
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Posts: 191
Loc: Makati City, Philippines
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I have noticed similar actions by animals in Indiana an hour or two before we get a nice severe storm. I notice it the most with birds that seem to almost be panicky and "running for cover". I believe most of this activity can be blamed on the birds enhanced sensitivity of atmospheric pressure. Pressure drops...they feel it and know its time to hide. Kinda like a someone with arthritis "feeling" the weather change - animals are just more "in tune" because they don't have or . Any thoughts?
(edited for grammar correction)
Edited by Domino (Tue Jun 14 2005 02:01 AM)
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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Here is one better, you can go to this site www.kodakgallery.com and upload all your digitals, they do not charge. I have about 700 pictures on there. You can also invite folks via sharing to view. Just be sure when you invite someone you do not require them to register. Some people don't want to bother with all that. Let me know if you need assistance, (tazmanian93@aol.com) Dad sounds insecure, which is why it makes him feel better to put someone else down.
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
****************
Ed
Edited by Tazmanian93 (Tue Jun 14 2005 02:51 AM)
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HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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in the west caribbean we have a synoptically forced invest tonight. diffluence south of the split from from the upper trough immediately to the north, and a persistent logjam in the trades in the western caribbean is feeding this puppy for now. like last year, the seems to consist not of a broad, table-sweeping trough, but an endless series of cut off lows that alternately aid and squelch develpment. as far as june is concerned, anyway.
92L has been showing consistently for about a week as a system originating near jamaica and moving either over the area from haiti to eastern cuba, and northeast into the westerlies. the big ridge near the east coast that jammed up to the great lakes (hpc just issued their final advisory on the depression over the 'thumb' of lower michigan) is flattening out, while in it's earlier surge it had dug a weakness on its southeastern flank that extends down into the deep tropics.. acting with the , contributing to the 'logjam' by synoptically forcing the rising of air in the region, and the lowering of surface pressure. if anything is to materialize, it will likely resemble that unclassified system from may of 2004.. perhaps as a clear cut tropical cyclone, but sheared and 'side-heavy' in profile. it should move slowly enough in a support environment to get a good shot at a surface low over the next couple of days, but be sheared and turned northeast beyond that point.. over the bahamas and out into the open atlantic.
there isn't another system the models are approaching enthusiastically beyond this one.. occasional blips in the gulf (that tend to move NE and don't appear on consecutive runs), and that suspicious looking cape verde system which has emerged as a strong but not evidently cyclonic wave. neither has much support.. one lacks a strong, clear pattern forcing element... the other would have to be a world-class early bird to form east of the islands this time of year.
if the caribbean feature develops into a named storm, it will be the first time since 1986 that two storms formed in june. 1982 (and nearly 1997) had a couplet of june systems, but one was subtropical in nature. it doesn't happen very often, and is more typical of either a strong el nino year or a hyperactive season. the latter is more feasible... we all know that may be what we're looking at this year.
first light visibles and some solid recon should give us something to check tomorrow.
HF 0306z14june
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