MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Noon 16.June Update
The Recon flight for today has been cancelled, as the system is moving over land.
Right now there is nothing imminent for tropical development, and probably won't be much to watch until perhaps the weekend or next week.
Rain over the disturbance areas will likely still be heavy.
11:30AM 15.June Update
USAFR Hurricane Hunter aircraft have been tasked for recon flights in the Bay of Campeche on Thursday for a suspect area that has been showing up lately. Modelling has been vacillating on developing this system, but obviously thinks it is important enough to monitor closely with recon. Will have further updates in the blogs later this afternoon...JK
6PM 13.June Update
The area in the western Caribbean seems to be dropping in pressure, and it's enough to consider it investigation area 92L by the weather services. Which means models will start to be ran on it. The Current thinking is that it will drift west northwestward, and perhaps north, more toward a cuban/bahama event than toward the US.
It is too early to tell if it will become Bret, but if it persists into tomorrow we may have a better idea. Aircraft recon is scheduled to check it out tomorrow. Still I think the overall chances for this to develop are quite low.
Is it really June?
Original Update
Early season Tropical Storm has come and gone, and we'd hope for a quiet rest of the month. But we've got a few more areas to watch, one is more likely than the other to develop, but still the June climatology goes against both of them.
The first area, North of the Leeward Islands, is fairly large, and extends quite a ways, it's a bit far north for this time of year, plus the associated upper level low is moving through rather hostile conditions for development.
The chance for development graph for this system:
Code:
forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[-*-------------------]
In the Western Caribbean, not too far from where came from, is another area of disturbed weather. This is between Jamaica and South America. It's a little more possible because of how relaxed winds may become north of it as time progresses. Right now the winds are a bit more hostile for development to the north than where it sits now, but this will change. It would take a few days of persistence for me to really go for it.
Code:
forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[-----*----------------]
After the warm up, I'd rather not watch these. But it's a good idea to watch, even if the chances aren't all that great for these systems. Again, if this were August, the scale would probably be much further to the right. Time will tell this week.
Event Related links:
Animated Model plot for western Caribbean area (92L)
Animated Model plot for Bay of Campeche area (93L)
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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the one in the sw caribbean... from what i can read on the ir2 tonight, i'll be interested what visibles look like in the morning. there's at least a broad trough in the area.
HF 0604z13june
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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i know IR isnt always the best to 'see' what's going on, but it does seem to show organization and a possible circulation with the disturbance midway between Jamaica and South America.
i'm talking swir. you can follow the faint gray low cloud movements in the trades fairly easily with it. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Mon Jun 13 2005 03:01 PM)
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SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
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Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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We are working on another automated animation product and would like your feedback. This product is called "Channel Surfer".
For the Tech guys: This web based product automatically grabs real time satellite JPG images, converts to GIF, resizes, splits to frames, applies filters, animates and then propagates to file. While any user with the appropriate access permissions could generate these images on the fly, it is likely we will serve pre-made images to John Q.
This is an animation of 3 GOES channels. Visible, water vapor and IR4.
1. Do you find value in this product?
2. Would you mind if a larger version resulted in a slower download time?
3. Would you want to see additional channels included?
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Shalafi
Weather Guru
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Posts: 123
Loc: Altamonte Springs
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I don't really understand what I'm looking at (extreme weather newbie) but it is nice to see different views in one pic. Makes seeing what I DO understand easier. I like it!
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Bryan
What doesn't kill us only makes us stronger.
God bless
I know very litte about weather. I'm here to learn mostly but will post friendly replies now and then. So if you don't want to see non-weather comments ignore me now. Thanx!
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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Great idea, love the various aspects, there is always something that can be picked from varying images, thanks for adding value!!!!
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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Liz
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Daytona Beach, Florida
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Yes, I find these very interesting, it is what I look at at the site. I like the animation.
Liz
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AgentB
Weather Guru
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Posts: 188
Loc: Winter Park, FL
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1.Yes
2.No
3.Sure
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Check the Surf
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
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Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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Hi -
1) Yes
2) No
3) Yes
Thank you for making this truly an exciting site.
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________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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FlaMommy
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 225
Loc: Tampa(Riverview), Florida
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1. Yes
2. No
3. Yes
You guys are truly amazing at what you do. Thank you for my experience being very educational.
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"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"
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Beaujolais
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 20
Loc: Kenner, LA but displaced in VA...
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Quote:
We are working on another automated animation product and would like your feedback. This product is called "Channel Surfer".
For the Tech guys: This web based product automatically grabs real time satellite JPG images, converts to GIF, resizes, splits to frames, applies filters, animates and then propagates to file. While any user with the appropriate access permissions could generate these images on the fly, it is likely we will serve pre-made images to John Q.
This is an animation of 3 GOES channels. Visible, water vapor and IR4.
Image removed to save space.
1. Do you find value in this product?
2. Would you mind if a larger version resulted in a slower download time?
3. Would you want to see additional channels included?
Absolutely!!
Definitley Not!!
Most Assuredly!!
Edited by SkeetoBite (Mon Jun 13 2005 03:22 PM)
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Ricreig
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Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
1. Do you find value in this product?
2. Would you mind if a larger version resulted in a slower download time?
3. Would you want to see additional channels included?
Hi Skeeter, Don't we keep you busy enough with your map making? 
To answer your questions as best I can:
1) Yes, but overlaying them sequentially is a bit confusing even if you get the overlay exact. Possibly better would be 2 or 4 related animations in a 'picture window' framed 2 or 4 with the ability to select a frame, click on it and have it expand to fill the screen. This way, we could examine all of the channels at once, Vis, WV, IR and IR colorized or even a floater instead of the IR colorized. THis would allow one to see the available animations, compare them and select the one that seems to convey the most information.
2) The initial 2x or 4x frame needent be larger necessarily, As a thumbnail, it would load rapidly and be very easy to expand as desire. This would keep overall bandwidth and screen space utilization at a minimum until the greater size/bandwidth is desired.
3) Three channels and maybe a floater thumbnail would be fine...you can expand by a 2nd set of thumbnails (such as the maps you make, and the HNC forecast animated similar to the one currently displayed here on the board. While the thumbnails *could* be animated, they wouldn't have to be on the thumbnail view, but the full size expansion should be. In fact, you could have a thumbnail 'teaser' to show what is available, a full screen 'thumbnail' expansion and a full screen single selection from the thumbnail.
Keep up the good work my friend.....
Richard
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javlin
Weather Master
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Loc: Biloxi,MS
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I could see a little mid-level circulation(15N75W) on VIS this morning.Looks like some more shear is moving in NW of the system.So I am thinking maybe 24-48 hrs if it is still there something might show maybe.
Edited by javlin (Mon Jun 13 2005 04:18 PM)
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Artsy Fartsy
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Fernandina Beach, Florida
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Quote:
I could see a little mid-level circulation(15N75W) on VIS this morning.Looks like some more shear is moving in NW of the system.So I am thinking maybe 24-48 hrs if it is still there something might show maybe.
I see the same, and it seems as though there is a small area of convection right over it if you view the IR. The circulation seems to be fairly apparent as of 12:30pm today, but, I am still a noobie and not sure if this is what I need to be looking for in a potential system.
I also checked out the WV loop and the Bermuda High is forcing a lot of dry air into the western carribean, not sure how this can effect storm development.
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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The local media here are now talking about this area.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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What you are seeing is cloudiness and showers associated with a weak surface trough of low pressure. It really has not become any better organized this morning. It is still possible however for slow developement over the next day or two as the surface trough is forecasted to move northwestward.
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
****************
Ed
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Katie
Weather Guru
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Loc: Winter Haven, FL
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Skeetobite
1. Yes
2. No
3. Yes
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Bloodstar
Moderator
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Posts: 462
Loc: Tucson, AZ
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1) yes
2) not at all
3) yes, if there is a toggle to turn the additional channels on/off
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
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Bloodstar
Moderator
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Posts: 462
Loc: Tucson, AZ
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Of course, i think the item around 16N 75W looks more impressive than it is, but it's a mid-level feature... I know upper level lows only rarely develop into tropical features, but for a midlevel item... is it more common for the low pressure to 'drill down' to the surface?' I would imagine so, if for no other reason than it is closer to the surface than an ULL.
Maybe I'm crazy but it looks interesting...
-Mark
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
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Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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That's exactly how I see it, Mark. The mid level low will generate into something interesting in 2 days. Watch the models.
8-)
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________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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