Big TK
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Looks like the AVN model is starting to pick up something in the GOMEX
http://weather.unisys.com/aviation/6panel/avn_pres_6panel.html
Edited by danielw (Mon Jun 20 2005 10:41 AM)
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danielw
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That appears to be the same model that we were discussing.
I believe they renamed the AVN to .
Sept-Oct 2002: Name changes: The AVN will be referred to as the Global Forecast System model (GFS).
http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/model_changes.html
SUBJECTIVE LIST OF MODEL PERFORMANCE CHARACTERISTICS
GFS
When specific thresholds in the mass fields are met, convective scheme is triggered and then dumps a large amount of over a grid point - releasing so much latent heat over the grid point that the model is forced to adjust the mass fields by producing a local vertical motion max in the mid troposphere (~ 500mb), a corresponding upper level jet max over the vertical motion max - an intense and small scale vort max in the mid levels (MCV).
The model scales up the mesoscale circulation at mid levels and holds onto it as a real feature for as long as 3 days.
The model can produce precipitation in association with the feature as it tracks along in the flow.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/mdlbias/biastext.shtml#GFS
Location in the GOM still bears watching. In case the model might prove correct.
But as I stated earlier, and I have rechecked most of the Centers, No One Is Calling For Development Of This Area in the GOM.
posted @ 0608Z-02:08 EDT- 0108CDT
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danielw
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For those that have been following the forecast. Please read the link below for this morning's Area Forecast Discussion from NWS Slidell.
It's educational and informative. Seems the ETA and are giving the forecasters quiet a stir, too! There is Still no mention of any development in the GOM.
Here are the first two sentences from the KLIX AFD~Slidell, LA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION ( edited to shorten post~danielw)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
300 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2005
.DISCUSSION...
"WOW...WHAT A DIVERGENT SOLUTION IN THE MAJOR MODEL SUITES. BEGINNING AT 48 HOURS THE AND ETA DIVERGE STRONGLY UNTIL THEY ARE 180 DEGEES OUT OF PHASE. BY 78 HRS THE ETA HAS A SFC HIGH IN THE SAME LOCATION THAT THE HAS A TROPICAL SFC LOW...HMMMMMM..."
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/LIX/AFDLIX.0506200726
Last two sentences of this discussion follow.
..."WILL SIMPLY NOT TOUCH ANY OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST ATTM SINCE SOLUTIONS FROM ALL MODELS HAVE BEEN SHAKY AT BEST THE LAST 3 DAYS.
AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES...WE WILL BEGIN TO PLACE A SFC LOW WHERE IT NEEDS TO BE IN THE MID TO EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST."
Please check local NWS Forecasts in your area for the extended forecasts.
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GuppieGrouper
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This is starting to sound ominous in terms of being able to predict where and when a storm is going to appear, and if it is likely to appear at all. I am sure these prophets are pulling out the short hairs this week, praying that they don't have anything to pop up on them during the July 4th weekend. We know how the blame likes to travel up hill and down hill. I know also that this is what the fuss is all about,. Otherwise they would just say that the conditions do not appear favorable for development and let it go at that.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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FlaMommy
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Quote:
Another veer off topic, wanted to wish you guys a Happy Father's Day, too. Hope you all had a great day! Dad's are the best!!
Hey guys sorry i wasnt on yesterday but wanted to wish everyone a "late" Happy Fathers Day....tc and be safe....
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"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"
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Benjamin
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In regards to development in the BOC, within the past 2-3 hours a circulation has developed in the central BOC this time well off land. Convection appears limited and shear is very strong just north of the system, but not terrible directly over the system itself. It appears that the (AVN) may have been correct after all.
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Steve hirschb.
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Yes the high will break down as the trough pulls through Florida and high pressure will rebuild in the western Atlantic later in the week. Interesting area of cloudiness and thunderstorms east of the Windwards. I'll bet better than even odds we'll have our second storm before June is gone. shows some development near the Bahamas and a surface low getting nudged westward under a strengthening ridge. The and show some potential development across the Caribbean toward week's end as well. Cheers!!
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Rabbit
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anyone notice on vis loop whats going on east of Antilles?
looks like a bit of a spin, nothing closed off, but still decent bit or rotation and sharp trough, and upper winds look a bit favorable
any chance that could develop in a few days?
update: just noticed something else spinning in the Bay of Campeche
Edited by Rabbit (Mon Jun 20 2005 04:34 PM)
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MikeG
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is that a surface low in BOC this morning heading west?
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Clark
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Benjamin -- that's not where the was/ie showing development; it shows it elsewhere, in the NW Caribbean, moving across the eastern Gulf.
The still hints at that system developing, which is more likely than not convective feedback. It apparently wants to spin something up later this week too -- something that shows up in the as well because it uses the for it's external grid and the northern Carib. is right along the extent of the NAM's grid -- but I'm not going to put much stock in anything down there right now. My earlier suspiscions were confirmed today by others -- they have changed something in the with regards to the tropics this year -- and until we get a better handle on what it means, I'm willing to write most everything off for now.
There is a bare vortex in the Bay of Campeche now, but moving west against the upper flow and caught in the vicinity of a trough. Waters are warm, yeah, and this is sometimes how you get development...but there's nothing to suggest it is either likely or imminent right now. Too much shear, for one, and a fair amount of dry air to the north, for another. Chalk it up, for now, to something interesting to look at but of no real concern. It might well just be a convectively-induced vortex that was left behind by the convection to the east.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Storm Cooper
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After all it does seem that things may be slow, for now, at least on the AL side of the coin. Several have put up some good stuff as far as models go and their opinions. Clark posted a little while back about the models... the and it's track record. Very true and he also metioned the as being the best as of now. I agree on that as I was behind the last season and I have a few posts to support that. I just wonder... what happened to the great 
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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javlin
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I think Clark that is the fourth one of those little vortex's spit out that mess in the last week.Everyone of them go W then S into Mekico.It's just each time a little further N when it spits them out.Just to much shear With the ULL coming NE to SW over the and one in the Carib heading W.I think it's going to a little while before things look productive for development.Fine by me vac.starts this Sunday.
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Domino
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It may be a quiet week...but we are working on collecting two of every animal here in south Florida. If you'd like directions to the arc or have animals to donate please write back.
Yes, we've had that much rain - very tropical atmosphere but certainly nothing stirring here...
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HanKFranK
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that wave entering the caribbean right now may be more interesting later in the week. bastardi is pointing out that it will be in the nw caribbean as the trough strung down into the gulf splits and ridging builds in.. several of the globals are showing a pressure fall in the area indicative of an environmental response. the man may be onto something. watch the globals to see if they get more enthusiastic about this area for late in the week/weekend.
HF 0550z21june
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ftlaudbob
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It is so soagy here.Rain rain rain.Welcome to the sunshine state.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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GuppieGrouper
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We will take any rain that you don't want. Our other choice is hot and humid. At least with the rain the temps stay down in the upper 80's.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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Ryan
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what month do you think is more active out of July, August, and September?
I'm just curious
my guess, being fairly new at this is Late August.
thanks for the help, see you soon.
-Ryan
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AgentB
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Quote:
what month do you think is more active out of July, August, and September?
I'm just curious
my guess, being fairly new at this is Late August.
thanks for the help, see you soon.
-Ryan
Mid-September. It's been said that Sept. 10 is the peak of the season.
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Check the Surf
Edited by AgentB (Tue Jun 21 2005 05:01 PM)
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Cycloneye11
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September is the most active month of hurricane season followed by August.
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Ed in Va
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I've always been intrigued that the hurrican season has two peaks. Is there anything else comparable to that in meteorology? In other areas, for example temperatures, there are peak cold days in late Jan and peak hot in late July, but there is no second period like hurricanes.
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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