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Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued for area in the East-Central Atlantic, only with 10% chance for development, not expected to do much.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 239 (Idalia) , Major: 239 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 239 (Idalia) Major: 239 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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MikeG
Unregistered




Re: July, August, September? [Re: Ed in Va]
      #37368 - Tue Jun 21 2005 06:04 PM

interesting the MM5fsu 2005062100 is trying to pick up something strong over the yucatan and move it north in 6-8 days into GOM....from 72 to 120hrs....looks like it comes from the east pacific and merges with something where Arlene formed....long summer ahead...... clark how has the MM5 done this year?

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doug
Weather Analyst


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Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: look ahead [Re: HanKFranK]
      #37369 - Tue Jun 21 2005 06:13 PM

HF has hit on something...look ahead...the ingredients seem to be in place for some West Carribean vulnerability 3 days or so out. If the pattern continues to change, and the trough moves out, and high pressure aloft follows in behind, as it does, lower pressures will develop there both indigenously and from the wave entering from the east. The high prssure aloft may be the oven necessary to "bake" those ingredients into something tangible.

Will watch this daily into the weekend to see what goes.

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doug


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Clark
Meteorologist


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Re: July, August, September? [Re: MikeG]
      #37370 - Tue Jun 21 2005 06:32 PM

MikeG -- MM5 has been a bit hyperactive this year, but it didn't missed either Arlene or Adrian. I'd not really count on that MM5 solution coming true...tropical cyclones don't develop over land like that.

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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


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Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
Re: look ahead [Re: doug]
      #37372 - Tue Jun 21 2005 11:05 PM

My thoughts exactly. I'll be heading to Tampa tomorrow and will be back before the weekend in time to see a disturbance develop (?)

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________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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lysis-in-TX
Unregistered




Re: look ahead [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #37378 - Wed Jun 22 2005 01:47 PM

Newer runs stick the system into a slightly more plausible location just east of the Yucatan peninsula (as opposed to developing directly over it).

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