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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4542
Loc: Orlando, FL
Nothing to See Here
      #37376 - Wed Jun 22 2005 06:51 AM

Updated 7:46PM
This week continues to be, thankfully, relatively slow in the tropics. There are a few cloud masses out there, but nothing really even close to development.


For those who insist, here are the development guesses for both:

For the clouds in the Southeastern Gulf.. This is too spread out, and nothing really is at the surface.
Code:

forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[*---------------------]



Now the other current area is the area in the eastern Caribbean (aka 94L). This is a stretch too. Even though it looks fairly well on Satellite now. It's approaching upper level winds that would suppress development.

Code:

forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[---*------------------]



At least for the rest of the regular week there won't be much I'd consider worth watching. Although we here in Florida will have to deal with the rain generated by the Gulf system.

Clark has more reasoning below in his weather blog.

Event Related Links:

Static Model Plot of Caribbean Disurbance (94L) from South Florida Water management District
Animated Model Plot of Caribbean Disurbance (94L)



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adogg76
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 53
Re: Nothing to See Here [Re: MikeC]
      #37379 - Wed Jun 22 2005 10:30 AM

Is there anything to this rotation and "band" off to the West of Tampa......early in the day and maybe a possibilty for trouble??

Also.....last night in South Brevard there was an odd occurrence......
A storm"band" moved thru the are ESE and "joined" with a cell moving W ever-so-slightly.....re-intensified somewhat and delivered quite a punch before fizziling out...looked odd on radar....thoughts??


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John3
Unregistered




Re: Nothing to See Here [Re: adogg76]
      #37380 - Wed Jun 22 2005 11:28 AM

A WEAK...AND NON-TROPICAL...AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED IN
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ALONG A BROAD ZONE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXTREMELY UNFAVORABLE FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.


nice to know some of the models did try to form a few areas off the subtropical jet..


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: Nothing to See Here [Re: adogg76]
      #37382 - Wed Jun 22 2005 12:04 PM

adogg76 -- that's actually a common occurence in general, especially so with a seabreeze in play. With the predominant upper-level flow from the west across Florida, a low-level seabreeze-initiated shower can move with the low-level flow, which near the east coast is generally out of the east during the day. The storms can collide, merge, even briefly pulse up before dying out...or they could just die out. Not an uncommon event, really.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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MikeG
Unregistered




Re: Nothing to See Here [Re: John3]
      #37383 - Wed Jun 22 2005 12:04 PM

i am looking north of Panama and wondering with all that mess (wave)....which is being sheared and appears to be moving to the north north west....could this be the feature that MM5 is picking up on.... looks to be a big wave moving into more favorable area later on.... latest image

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FlaRebel
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 59
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
Re: Nothing to See Here [Re: MikeG]
      #37385 - Wed Jun 22 2005 12:39 PM

Quote:

i am looking north of Panama and wondering with all that mess (wave)....which is being sheared and appears to be moving to the north north west....could this be the feature that MM5 is picking up on.... looks to be a big wave moving into more favorable area later on.... latest image




Pretty impressive looking anyway!

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html


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Steve hirschb.
Unregistered




Re: Nothing to See Here [Re: FlaRebel]
      #37386 - Wed Jun 22 2005 01:09 PM

That UL in the NW Caribbean may drive that into the Pacific. What I believe we may have an Invest on soon is the circulation developing to the south of the Dominican Republic. 12Z CMC (though not too reliable) has this developing as it moves NW through the Bahamas and up the east coast of FL. We'll have to see how this whole thing evolves; it may develop further west, but if the ULL doesn't move WSW as fast it could be where the CMC puts it as the ridge builds in from the western Atlantic. A bear watch. Cheers!!

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Katie
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 167
Loc: Winter Haven, FL
Re: Nothing to See Here [Re: FlaRebel]
      #37387 - Wed Jun 22 2005 01:36 PM

FLARebel
I really like that link you posted. But, it just made me realize that we look like (here in Central Florida) like we are about to get it! Looks like I need to be paying more attention to local forecasts than what "maybe" developing!!!! Is that a link anyone can look at, at any time?


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Maybe, maybenot
Unregistered




Re: Nothing to See Here [Re: Steve hirschb.]
      #37388 - Wed Jun 22 2005 01:37 PM

The 1200 CMC run has lost the low you mention which was showed in the 0000 run of 06/22/2005

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MikeG
Unregistered




Re: Nothing to See Here [Re: Maybe, maybenot]
      #37389 - Wed Jun 22 2005 02:01 PM

the 12 CMC run to me appears to show a stronger low moving up east side of florida now than in the 00Z run... what link did you use to view run? it looks like something for east florida/north florida.....in this model...but there's nothin yet...and could be nuthin. will have to see is the others pick up on the feature....many days away

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Steve hirschb.
Unregistered




Re: Nothing to See Here [Re: MikeG]
      #37390 - Wed Jun 22 2005 03:36 PM

I think he was looking at yesterday's 12Z. 94L now up south of DR!!!!!

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Cycloneye11
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Mon
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Loc: San Juan,Puerto Rico
94L invest [Re: Steve hirschb.]
      #37391 - Wed Jun 22 2005 03:37 PM



Interesting that the wave looks better today.Let's see what happens.

Just a heads-up -- like the next post, it'd be better to post a link to the site instead of the image. This one doesn't change all the time though, so I've left it for now. --Clark

Edited by Clark (Wed Jun 22 2005 07:14 PM)


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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
Re: 94L invest [Re: Cycloneye11]
      #37392 - Wed Jun 22 2005 04:10 PM

Interesting also that MM5 is still showing something to shoot up through the Yuc 120 hrs out as it did yesterday.

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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D3m3NT3DVoRT3X
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 48
Loc: The Burg < FL
Re: 94L invest [Re: Tazmanian93]
      #37393 - Wed Jun 22 2005 04:35 PM

wow thats lookin pretty impressive blow up of showers south of DR!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg

Edited to remove image and replace with link to image -- it changes constantly, making a link better, plus doesn't tax the NOAA servers as much. --Clark

Edited by Clark (Wed Jun 22 2005 07:10 PM)


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Rich B
British Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: 94L invest [Re: D3m3NT3DVoRT3X]
      #37395 - Wed Jun 22 2005 07:00 PM

Well took my first look at the imagery just now when i got in... must say that the last few visible images of the wave south of the DR look really quite suspicious. The wave is definitely well organised and presented on satellite - both vis and ir. The landmass of Hispaniola will be having some negative impact on any attempts to organise further at the moment though. Nevertheless, this thing looks like it has good potential, at least in the short term.

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: 94L invest [Re: Rich B]
      #37396 - Wed Jun 22 2005 07:20 PM

94L has a narrow window to do anything -- and looks more impressive on the microwave imagery from the NRL webpage than I figured it would -- but even as the upper-low just to its west dies out (lowering the shear but weakening the upper-level support for the convection), the trough and associated upper low near Florida is on its way to do its best with this feature.

QuikSCAT missed the storm for the most part on the morning pass; we'll see if the evening pass captures it or not. What did come through, though, didn't suggest a surface feature at that time, though there are hints that one may be present now. The aforementioned microwave imagery suggested a weak banded structure to the south of where a developing circulation might be, but that could also be an artifact of the convective pattern at the time. Last visible images of the night are inconclusive; there appears to be some turning, but moreso at the midlevels than anything else.

I still don't give this thing much of a chance to develop -- if it doesn't do it rapidly, it likely won't at all -- and most of the convective energy should get caught up in the Florida trough as it moves offshore over the next day or two. Another wet few days for Hispaniola, unfortunately, but not a strong candidate for tropical development.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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LONNY307
Unregistered




Re: 94L invest [Re: Clark]
      #37403 - Thu Jun 23 2005 08:12 AM

I keep looking at the water vapor loop and I'm hoping for a nice weekend here in South Fl and up in Orlando. I'm heading up there this weekend. 94L to me looks likes it will be deflected north leaving most of Florida finally dry. The ULL seems to be the player that will dry me out. At least the way I see it. The local mets and of course the useless weather channel local forecast seems to believe it will be mostly wet. I also believe the wave could split leaving something in the carribean. Will see who gets the ribbon.

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LisaA
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 9
Loc: Melbourne FL
Re: 94L invest [Re: LONNY307]
      #37404 - Thu Jun 23 2005 08:34 AM

Hi. First post. I can't decide whether to add flood insur. I'm in a non flood zone "preferred X" area?? First time homeowner, $ tight... we did get a little water in during Frances and Jeanne and they didn't dump as much rain as they could have, right?

--------------------
Moved to FL 7/04, unpacked and honkered down. Worth it to be in paradise!


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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 330
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida
Re: 94L invest [Re: LisaA]
      #37405 - Thu Jun 23 2005 08:52 AM

Howdy neighbor. I know one thing for sure, we over on the island have to have flood insurance. If we get a major hurricane( I pray not) it always concerns me about storm surge, especially if the storm hits at high tide. That scares me worse than the wind. Over in Melbourne I`d be concerned if I lived on a canal or close to the Indian River. Low lying areas are sometimes prone to run off water when a storm dumps several inches of rain in a short amount of time. Ask your neighbors about past rain events in your area, maybe they can shed some insight into any flooding problems that have occurred in the past.......Be prepared, its going to be a long interesting summer for us in Brevard.........Weatherchef

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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: 94L invest [Re: LONNY307]
      #37406 - Thu Jun 23 2005 10:01 AM

LONNY -- you all will still get the afternoon and evening thunderstorms for some time to come; with all of the moisture at the surface still around, despite the upper-low and trough passing to the south a bit (as it's done this morning), rain and thunderstorms are still possible -- just more isolated than before. Disturbances in the subtropical jet that is still nearby will help aid in the rain chances as well...so it's not all clear and dry.

For those watching Beatriz -- she's quickly crossing into cooler waters and has likely peaked in intensity. It should be a slow decline from here on out as the convection associated with the storm dies out. I'd be willing to guess that it's intensity was a bit higher than NHC estimated at its peak, but that's nitpicking.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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