tpratch
Moderator
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Posts: 339
Loc: Maryland
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In Melbourne/Palm Bay - it really comes down to drainage in your area.
We're high enough over sea-level that no surge could ever do anything to us directly (poor barrier islands though). However, if your house is at the bottom of a hill, or doesn't have much in the way of drainage, you could have serious issues.
My new house in Palm Bay is about 10 feet above street-level and the front yard slopes. It'll take a LOT of undrained water before I'd need to worry about flood insurance, and I am canal-front.
As mentioned above, just ask your neighbors and they can tell you what to expect if they were here for and Jeanne.
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yecatsjg
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 26
Loc: Bradenton, FL
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Hi, Lisa. I'm over on the other side of FL, but I just added flood insurance last week. I, too, am in zone X, but ya just never know.... I found it cheapest through AAA. We have $150,000 building and $60,000 contents for $264 a year.
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Katie
Weather Guru
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Posts: 167
Loc: Winter Haven, FL
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Lonny - here is what I found for the Orlando area for the weekend:
This Afternoon: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high near 89. East wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Tonight: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 8pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 72. East northeast wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Friday: Occasional showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2pm. High around 88. Northeast wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Friday Night: Occasional showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 8pm. Low near 74. East northeast wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Saturday: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 8am. Mostly cloudy, with a high around 88. East southeast wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Saturday Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 8pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 74. East southeast wind between 5 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Sunday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms after 8am. Partly cloudy, with a high near 91. East southeast wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Sunday Night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 8pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 74. Southeast wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
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Katie
Weather Guru
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Posts: 167
Loc: Winter Haven, FL
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Hey, Polk Countians....
You guys gettin' any of this storm??? HOLY COW. I swear, I think I just saw a dog fly by.... Seriously, it is an awesome storm right now. I know Highlands County is getting a good rain as we speak too.
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Wrkn in Orl
Unregistered
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I'm in metrowest area of Orlando and watching the Radar - - it seems as though the cells are all moving in a rotational mode. The entire system appears to be a disorganized Low pressure area. Any mets assistance???
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Just a low pressure off to the south of central Florida, associated with the same upper low that has been nearby the past few days. Nothing to be concerned with tropicall, just rain for the peninsula.
Tropics-wise, 94L's on or near its last hurrah, while activity associated with a new complex south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is on the increase. Some slow development of that is likely over the next few days.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Benjamin
Unregistered
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Clark I was wondering what you thought of the disturbance just off to the coast where Nicaragua Honduras and the Caribbean Sea come together. Visible images show the hint of some sort of circulation, at least in the past 2-3 hours and ir images show ample convection. Shear directly over the system looks relatively light at 10kts but the system is generally heading north and west into a higher shear enviroment. The system just caught my eye and it looks far more impressive than the deteriorating 94L. Your thoughts?
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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Yes that in the West carribean is very intriguing, as 94L's moisture gets pulled down into it, BUT that is a vigorous trough to the North, and the ULL over Florida seems not to be in a hurry to move out, which it would have to do in order to help create the ridge necessary for this to develop. It may have ample evacuation in the North and NorthEast sectors but would seem to be impeded in the NW and west. If develpoment occurs it will be slow.
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doug
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AMK
Unregistered
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Looking at the satellite imagery (both visible and infared), it apperas that something may be starting to happen just east of Nicaragua. Does anyone think this system has much of a disturbances which blows up quickly, looks impressive, and dies off. Any thoughts?
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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
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Very nice Spin-up off of Honduras, think we'll have a new invest soon.
TG
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SteveinLA
Unregistered
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>>Tropics-wise, 94L's on or near its last hurrah, while activity associated with a new complex south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is on the increase. Some slow development of that is likely over the next few days.
Only in as much as it's "94L." The wave that spawned it is still in full effect and continues moving WNW while some of the energy got entrained into the east side of the MLL/ULL moving across Southern FL. Like last night, look for a burst late and another pulse down. If anything's happening with this entity, it won't be until Saturday or Sunday at the earliest. The ECWMF which has had the best handle on the future of the system from the get-go (or at least the southern side prior to the partial splitting of the wave energy) is down right now. I haven't seen the 12Z runs to see if it still wants to do that low off the upper Texas Coast come Monday or Tuesday. The convective feedback issues associated with the & have many people along the Carolina coast a bit edgy. I think something could get going there, but it's more likely to be a rogue type NEer storm or possibly a weak system at the surface. The ECWMF completely ignores that energy so it's not all that correct either. But as a trackable entity, the southern part of that wave was the real deal. Once the upper low is out the way and the surface trof weakens in the wake of high pressure building over the SE Gulf aloft, something could get going.
So even if you're writing off 94l as the did, I don't think the wave itself should be written off yet. Best shot is a deep surge of tropical moisture with a very outside chance for up to a mid-grade Tropical Storm come Monday or so.
Steve
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Jekyhe904
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 22
Loc: Jacksonville, Florida
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Looks like the is becoming a 'little' more optomistic towards development of the two systems.
Quote:
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER A BROAD AREA FROM THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE BAHAMAS TO HISPANIOLA.
THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH WEATHER SYSTEMS...AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND A TROPICAL WAVE THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN
CUBA. WHILE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA...THEY COULD BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE
FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR .
A SMALL AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS DEVELOPED IN THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA VERY NEAR THE COAST OF HONDURAS. SHOULD THIS SYSTEM
REMAIN OVER WATER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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The disturbed area to the east of the Honduras / Nicargua border certainly seems to be getting well organised. Wouldnt be surprised to see this develop further, especially as shear is light at the moment. However, it does look small and fragile, so if it moves much closer to land it could easily fall apart. Visible loops would seem to suggest a very slow motion to the west-northwest, with the forecast motion being more to the northwest. This takes the system very near to the Honduras / Nicaragua border before moving back over open water. Certainly one to keep watching.
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Storm Cooper
User
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Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
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Things are somewhat quiet but also somewhat interesting at the same time.
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
Loc:
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SteveinLA -- moisture's a pretty good shot, as mentioned before. This really isn't 94L, I don't believe; the old 94L is the feature to the east. A series of mid-level convective complexes have been forming in this region on-and-off for much of the past month, usually without any fanfare; thus far, this is just one of them.
A mid-grade tropical storm? Too much going on against it, I think. The upper low to the north is still there, with a shortwave trough rotating around it now (a short-term negative), currently between Cuba and the Yucutan. Any northward movement is going to quickly take it into a region of much stronger shear. If the disturbance in the East Pacific gets going, it might be close enough to draw away the energy from the system; despite that, there is the old 94L to the east of this one. I don't see a surface circulation present yet -- there is a pretty impressive mid-level circulation, though. Anything that gets going at the surface is going to take time, and I don't believe this thing has time on its side. There's too much land in the way of where it is headed and nothing really to keep it from moving ashore.
So, in essence, I'm writing off 94L...this (probably 95L in time) has a better shot, but I still wouldn't put it in the "likely" category.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Big Tk
Unregistered
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All models are picking up on something down there. I think this will be are next tropical storm. seems to be a little more concerned about the 2 disturbance as well.
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HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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you guys have already touched on the stuff i'm thinking.. mine isn't all that different. energy from the wave currently near 72w is entraining northwestward ahead of the upper low over florida, while the return flow around the surface ridge building near the east coast is banking moisture into the region from the atlantic. the result on a number of models is a quasi-tropical low that drifts up to the carolinas over the weekend. the exact character remains to be seen--it has clear mid-latitude and tropical triggers and will probably acquire at least a somewhat tropical look. dependent on when/how it changes in vertical structure the steering mechanisms will vary.. also the trough may be slower to retreat than models are calling for.
further south the rest of the wave is moving into an improving environment, depending again on how that upper low/trough weakens and lifts/splits. the newer runs are finally starting to show the feature euro has been harping on, though not with the continuity of existance. there is already a convective flare ahead of the advancing wave near cape gracias a Dios (that's thanks to God, not thank you goodbye) at the nic/hon border.. with that look to it that makes us drool. a meso low there at the mid levels might actually be a legit trigger, as the low level easterlies are racing to the north but the flow is plodding out of the south as the westerly backing in the tropical pacific hooks around near central america. slim on the thing anyhow, but as the wave energy moves in and continues nw to the yucatan and gulf, it will be in a potentially improving environment and over some solid warm SSTs.
so anyway, thats just a twist on the ideas clark and steve are juggling. the response clock that works out sometimes has a system ready 6-10 after beatriz got going.. that would be june 27-29... in time for the wave energy taking the southerly route. the atlantic low will have a mediocre environment and little time to get kicking, so more emphasis on the gulf going into early next week.
HF 0030z24june
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Good post H/F.
Clark,
We're going to have to see because whatever resolves from the pattern won't be anything but speculation until Saturday or Sunday at the earliest. There are several elements that stand between now and possible development that need to be worked out.
If the was right with it's low pressure off the Upper Texas Coast Tuesday or Wednesday, it's still not going to really do anything for another 48-72 hours - that is if anything besides a deep tropical surge pops. It had the impulse up near the Yucatan on Monday. If it has that look [tm - Lois Cane], we'll know it's going to at least take a shot at development. As far as the origins, I think the energy from the wave in the area interacting with the remnants of the surface trof, the upper/mid low moving across S. FL and the flow in the extreme western Caribbean is more the defined entity than what was depicted as 94L to begin with. I agree about the various mid-level features going off down there (most of it has been diurnal), but it's the wave (which is now intersecting) that's supplying the real kick.
At least we've got something to watch for a while.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
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Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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I just looked at 94L on the sight and it is looking somewhat defined with the squall lines starting to show up to the right of what appears to be a center. I am amazed that it is still an invest, but not surprised that the officials do not want to rush to identify, name or otherwise suggest that this could be a possible storm unless there is good evidence it will become a storm. This is wayyyy too close to Florida and the weather has been tracking pretty well over South Florida this week. I am very happy with the conservative weather reporting that has been going on due to last year's real problems.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Hey, all! I think that every time I come to check out the page, a new system "may or may not" be developing...maybe I should just stay away! 
If something DOES form and effect Florida, it'll probably be over the 4th of July weekend because a) we're going to the races; b) it's a holiday weekend and the state will be packed for the above mentioned races & for the SunNFun and c) it's my husband's birthday.
Katie...we got some really horrendous storms yesterday; I, too, saw a dog and maybe a cow fly through my backyard. Today wasn't nearly as bad, I think maybe just a squirrel flew by the kitchen window.
Re the flood insurance for an "X" flood zone: I, too, live in a FEMA "X" zone and thought I better get insurance. I think it's also called the "100 Year Flood". Last year, I decided that it would be smart to get this insurance just because *you never know* and after talking to my insurance agent, I decided to go ahead and purchase it. My husband remarked that the likelihood of us ever getting flooded out was very remote. That was before , and Jeanne. 
You just never know, and if you can squeeze it into your budget (it's pretty cheap) you might just be counting your blessings down the road.
With that, I'll go see what other trouble I can stir up in the tropics. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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