SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
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Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Quote:
Audrey, 1954, Cat 4...
MM
First named storm of 1954 was "Alice". Landfall in Northern Mexico as a Cat1.
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Katie
Weather Guru
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Posts: 167
Loc: Winter Haven, FL
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Audrey 1957?
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MapMaster
Unregistered
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Oops--yep, 1957. My bad...nevermind!!:)
MM
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SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
Reged:
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Quote:
Audrey 1957?
Indeed neighbor. Came ashore in Northeast Texas, nearly on the border with Louisiana... as a Cat4
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MapMaster
Unregistered
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I DO remember Audrey killed hundreds in Cameron, La.
MM
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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June 27 in a matter of hours, wiped out every movable object in her path. Audrey killed 425 people, 154 of whom were under the age of 9
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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looks like the strongest support for a surface center is well east of the bahamas, so if it has a successful formation, whatever would be out there would come in a bit further north than the earlier model progs.. say myrtle beach to cape lookout. that'd give it more time over water. better chances for a bret if it develops further out.
weak low near nic/hon coast is still just sitting around. not much upper support there yet (it's coming in from the east), but there's decent low level convergence.
beatriz has faded away in the eastpac, but it looks like calvin is revving up south of acupulco. the pac-atl response from beatriz to 94L worked out ok.. maybe the trend will continue and the new one will have an atlantic correspondence in a few days (perhaps that w carib feature).
on the other hand, it's june.. getting one storm alone is iffy.. two is a stretch.
HF 2236z24june
Edited by HanKFranK (Fri Jun 24 2005 09:41 PM)
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Jekyhe904
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 22
Loc: Jacksonville, Florida
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FWIW, both the Unisys and the wunderground sites now have a weak surface low of 1011mb plotted in the bahamas Unisys surface map
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JohnB
Unregistered
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at looking at sat and local obs from florida, i am having a hard time think that the weak 1011mb low is still there in the bahamas. does anyone think that a low will form off the sw of florida coast (in GOM)? looking at vis and radar and obs. could there be a low forming near punta gorda? moving wsw?
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Steve hirschb.
Unregistered
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Early season stuff can be quite odd. Looks to be a spin just south of eastern Cuba as well. Anyhow, the one interesting thing about the entire basin is that it is very moist. Moreso than I've seen in years all the way to the eastern Atlantic.
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nc cane
Unregistered
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Hi to all from eastern nc. Looks as if we may be in line for this one. Remember 1999 when we got pounded with twice , then Floyd, then Irene. What many do not see is the pattern in the Atlantic may be shaping up like 1999 & !996 when it seemed everything got turned up the eastern seaboard. What are any of your early thoughts.
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Domino
Weather Guru
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Posts: 191
Loc: Makati City, Philippines
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Looking at Miami/Key West radar almost looks like there is a low due south of Marco Island, FL. Poorly defined but you can certainly see circulation...any thoughts?
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Storm Cooper
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Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
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Have not looked myself but just wondering what radar provider are you using...NWS, IC etc. Things are getting messy down there but I don't think time will allow anything to develop.
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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Domino
Weather Guru
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Posts: 191
Loc: Makati City, Philippines
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I'm actually looking at Nexrad3 - a program I am running locally. The same feature is also visable on Accuweather.com's radar.
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Storm Cooper
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Loc: Panama City , FL
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10-4. I would guess mid level low at best for now. Models are running on it so who knows what may be by morning. I still think real estate will be a problem for formation.
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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Domino
Weather Guru
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Posts: 191
Loc: Makati City, Philippines
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Looking at satellite there is not much there at the moment...just some swirls, nothing special. Just interesting to see it so obvious on radar.
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dem05
User
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Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
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I'm going with split wave development approach, which is not anything unheard of. Per TWDs a few days ago, the wave producing activity in the carribean was splitting and we really have two things to look at here.
As per 1030 , Carolina residents should monitor for the development of a possible STS or TS from the "Bahama low"...which is the northern piece.
Review this link then see synoptic thinking below: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/epac-wv-loop.html
Down the road, the southern part of that old wave is leaving moisture in SW Carrib. Thunderstorms not as impressive, but activity is just hanging around down there. Furthermore and most importantly (and not just the ULL pulling north over and east of Florida), is the Upper Low over Southern Texas that is digging South. As the Upper low around florida moves north and the Texas low moves south, don't be surprised to see some ridging develop. As the Texas low continues to move south into Mexico and Western Gulf, this can create a classic development pattern for disturbances in the SW Carribean, which gradually work there way into the central and eastern gulf. On the weaker points...One may also want to note that moister upper and mid level air may also continue to enter the area down the road.
Edited by dem05 (Sat Jun 25 2005 03:03 AM)
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LadyStorm
Weather Guru
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Posts: 154
Loc: United States
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Looks like we will have Bret sometime today.
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"The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of
thinking we were at when we created them"
..........Albert Einstein
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Well the disturbance southeast of the Carolinas look like it has a decent shot at becomming either Tropical or Subtropical Storm Bret. IR imagery would seem to indicate that most of the thunderstorm activity is in the eastern semicircle at present. Will be interesting to see what the first visible images show within the next hour or so. And then of course, we have recon going out later too. If they find a cyclone of subtropical or tropical nature, expect warnings to go up for the Carolinas this evening.
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Well first light visible imagery shows an exposed circulation near 30.1N 76.2W. This position is just to the west of the area of deep convection. The nearest convection to the north and west of the centre is currently in a band which lies just offshore of South Carolina and Georgia.
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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