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Chill falls over the Atlantic as the official season heads towards close
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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: NW Carrb? [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #37520 - Sun Jun 26 2005 11:26 AM

oh man. there it is over the outer banks... it took too long to form, but put that thing 300 miles to the south and that would have been bret. SSTs along the mid atlantic coast aren't warm enough to support a tropical cyclone. but that was close.
next place to watch is the bay of campeche and western gulf. the southern part of that tropical wave that split and gave us 94L is moving into the area, with a weak surface trough from west florida down to belize. an upper ridge is building over the area, and a natural barrier to force low level convergence is strung across the region. everything is gummed up, and should continue to be that way as that tropical system develops on the mexican pacific coast.
model support is so-so, though... chances of another system before july aren't strong.
HF 1621z26june


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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: NW Carrb? [Re: HanKFranK]
      #37521 - Sun Jun 26 2005 12:29 PM

HF,
Being all gummed up is that terminology to mean, prohibiting development, or enhancing development.? I got lost around that last metaphor.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 462
Loc: Tucson, AZ
That's a Tropical Depression [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #37522 - Sun Jun 26 2005 02:17 PM

If that's not a tropical depression, then I am hallucinating. good banding, outflow, defined low level spin.... besides the close proximity to land, what is it missing?

-Mark

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Re: That's a Tropical Depression [Re: Bloodstar]
      #37523 - Sun Jun 26 2005 02:37 PM

By gummed up, it means there are too many things going on at the same time which generally will prohibit development. For storms to forum /usually/ they need for other aspects of the weather competing for the same energy to resolve.

I like the STDS put out by the NHC today as I think it accurately reflected the picture. However, it sure seemed like a Subtropical Depression based on the visible presentation and the 20-30 windspeeds. I guess everything isn't getting a name, but there was an obvious surface rotation on my favorite radar, the one out of Morehead City, NC earlier this morning.

The southern part of the wave that spawned 94L (as noted by HF) is still pretty active as was expected. I thought the best the northern end could do was low-grade tropical storm and the best the southern end could do was maybe mid-grade. I'm not sure if anything's coming out of this, but things do seem to be following the original ECMWF runs from the middle of last week that had a ripple in the isobars near the Yucatan on Monday with a TS off the UT Coast on Wed. Later runs of the European kept it further and further south and didn't develop anything with it. The jury is still out as it was going to be at least until this weekend before we could tell if anything was going to get in the Gulf or not, and if so, how it might behave. In my mind, with the battle between the southern part of the wave and the EPAC, the EPAC is going to win with the wave basically tracking across the southern Gulf of Mexico and probably into Mexico by mid-week. But there's still an outside chance something casual could develop and threaten the Texas coast. Wait and see mode.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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HF gone home
Unregistered




Re: That's a Tropical Depression [Re: Bloodstar]
      #37524 - Sun Jun 26 2005 02:48 PM

blood, i wouldn't quite give it that. the surface obs show a closed low, banded convection.. but the min pressure is 1016-17mb and winds are only around 25kt. it's on the coast and going to move along the va coast into this evening.. waters go into the 70s, so it's pretty much out of an environment that can support a tropical system. so i agree with the NHC's calls on 94L.
guppie... gummed up as in there's a surface trough, and everything isn't jetting along westward like it usually does this time of year. features in the tropics like that during the hurricane season.. an old frontal boundary, a trough at the surface generated by an upper low, a thunderstorm complex that drifted offshore.. such features offer an alternative means or augmentation of those means to get tropical systems going. i'm just pointing to more of these 'ingredients' that are going to coalesce for a time in the southwestern gulf early next week. none of the models are that enthusiastic, though.. probably not much for the next week.
HF 1943z26june


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dem05
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Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Re: All Chips on Table [Re: dem05]
      #37525 - Sun Jun 26 2005 03:03 PM

Quote:

Review this link then see synoptic thinking below: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/epac-wv-loop.html

Down the road, the southern part of that old wave is leaving moisture in SW Carrib. Thunderstorms not as impressive, but activity is just hanging around down there. Furthermore and most importantly (and not just the ULL pulling north over and east of Florida), is the Upper Low over Southern Texas that is digging South. As the Upper low around florida moves north and the Texas low moves south, don't be surprised to see some ridging develop. As the Texas low continues to move south into Mexico and Western Gulf, this can create a classic development pattern for disturbances in the SW Carribean, which gradually work there way into the central and eastern gulf. On the weaker points...One may also want to note that moister upper and mid level air may also continue to enter the area down the road.


I made this reference the other night. It appears that this mid-upper level evolution is occurring. I maintain the thinking that the NW Carribean is the place to watch. You will notice on todays Water Vapor that the Upper low did continue to dig south into Mexico and Western Gulf. Ridging is building into the Eastern and central gulf as well as the NW Carribean. In fact, the Canadian model is now showing the development of a system "a la" Arlene.
CMC Link: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-bi...;hour=Animation
Water Vapor Link: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/epac-wv-loop.html


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Re: All Chips on Table [Re: dem05]
      #37526 - Sun Jun 26 2005 03:21 PM

>>blood, i wouldn't quite give it that. the surface obs show a closed low, banded convection.. but the min pressure is 1016-17mb and winds are only around 25kt. it's on the coast and going to move along the va coast into this evening.. waters go into the 70s, so it's pretty much out of an environment that can support a tropical system. so i agree with the NHC's calls on 94L.

1016-17 is higher than high pressure usually is so it was an anomaly for the environment anyway. Subtropical Depression (which was what I said, not tropical depression) seemed evident to me. I could be wrong, but it did have that STD look to it minus the cankers .

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
Re: NW Carrb? [Re: HanKFranK]
      #37528 - Sun Jun 26 2005 04:17 PM

Even looking at it now it still looks like it had a chance you can see the walls drifting off to the NE
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_hom...IM_TYPE=Animate

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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HF gone home
Unregistered




Re: All Chips on Table [Re: Steve]
      #37530 - Sun Jun 26 2005 04:41 PM

yeah, 94L was close. it just missed it's shot.
that stuff in the carib.. well, i wouldn't say the sw carib can do anything. the weather moving over the yucatan and into the gulf early next week should be the focal point for anything else that tries to activate for the rest of the month.
we may see the cape verde region go active earlier than normal this year. GFS is already trying to track a system out of the region in the extended period. SSTs near the african coast are still subpar, but closer to the islands they're more than adequate, and the wave near 10/43 even has a weak low associated with it. i've got a hunch we'll see a couple of those in july.
HF 2136z26june


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Lysis-in-Texas
Unregistered




Re: NW Carrb? [Re: Tazmanian93]
      #37531 - Sun Jun 26 2005 04:43 PM

What is up with the closed isobars coming off the Cape Verde Islands as shown in MM5fsu model?:


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsutc2...;hour=Animation


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Lysis-in-Texas
Unregistered




Re: NW Carrb? [Re: Lysis-in-Texas]
      #37532 - Sun Jun 26 2005 04:45 PM

EDIT: Hank... you just beat me to my little discovery.

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MapMaster
Unregistered




It is a TD [Re: Lysis-in-Texas]
      #37533 - Sun Jun 26 2005 05:22 PM

NHC and others can say whatever, but based on presentation and wind speed, plus, over water again, it is a TD. Dvorak 1.5 easy. Even if the thermal structure doesn't add up, then it would be a std. But, I think not.

Plus--80 degrees water temp is not the holy grail...a number of depressions and storms have developed over sub 80 degree water in recent years...

MM


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MapMaster
Unregistered




Re: NW Carrb? [Re: Lysis-in-Texas]
      #37534 - Sun Jun 26 2005 05:24 PM

No closed isobars seen...????

MM


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Mapmaster
Unregistered




Re: NW Carrb? [Re: MapMaster]
      #37535 - Sun Jun 26 2005 05:25 PM

Oops. now I see them (animation short circuit the first run).

MM


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dem05
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Re: It is a TD [Re: MapMaster]
      #37537 - Sun Jun 26 2005 06:05 PM

Regarding 80F water temps...Yes, systems have developed when water temperatures are less than this, but in the 70's. However, this only happens when the feature is warmer than it's surrounding environment. As a side note "Cliff Clavin Fact", while the surface pressures are higher than "Atmospheric average (1013mb)", it's pressures are lower than the surrounding environment.

With that said and nonetheless, I agree with the NHC on this one. It is not even close to being a TD, STD, TS, or STS. That beautiful represnetation you are seeing in the satellite is a mid level feature. The surface feature is decoupled from this and is weakening off of Duck, NC, while the mid level takes off to North.
The book on this one is closed.
For a closer look, link to NASA Interactive: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/


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Hurrihj
Unregistered




Re: It is a TD [Re: dem05]
      #37538 - Sun Jun 26 2005 06:33 PM

The buoys shown that it had a well defined LLC as it was moving inland earier this morning. In also the radar shown a very tight packed core with banding moivng around it. A large area of 20 to 25 mph winds with gust up to 35 mph. The satellite shown a very nice system. I'm sorry but this thing was very close.

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Mapmaster
Unregistered




Re: It is a TD [Re: dem05]
      #37539 - Sun Jun 26 2005 07:01 PM

I'll always admit it when I am wrong....I took a look and can see the decoupling and the midlevel center (that is what I was looking at).

It may have briefly been a TD, but, isn't now.

As an old friend used to say, "Observation without interpretation is of no value'!!



MM


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h2ocean
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 91
Loc: South Merritt Island, FL
Re: NW Carrb? and more... [Re: Mapmaster]
      #37542 - Sun Jun 26 2005 08:51 PM

There is also another area where the last Vis images showed a broad circulation. There is also a flare-up near the center. Check out the below link and look at the bottom right around 12 N and 44 W. Doesn't look like a lot, but lets see if it persits.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg

Just checked the Atlantic Tropical Discussion and see the following:

CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W/43W SOUTH OF
15N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE WAS REPOSITIONED USING A
MULTI-DAY SATELLITE LOOP. A DISTINCT CYCLONIC SWIRL IS NOTED N
OF THE ITCZ. CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE ITCZ.


--------------------
Merritt Island, FL Home Weather Station

Edited by h2ocean (Sun Jun 26 2005 08:57 PM)


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dem05
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Re: It is a TD [Re: Mapmaster]
      #37543 - Sun Jun 26 2005 10:22 PM

Hi Hurrihj and mapmaster. First. Hurrihj, I think you are right, things came close to coming together for a TD, but it just didn't happen. Mapmaster, keep up your observations. I hope this site remains highly interactive. My impression has been that the posters here really aren't wave mongers, but have an alert interest. I wish more were like the gang here. Being prepared and aware affects outcomes should a storm come in anyones direction.
I learn new things from all of you too. In the short term, I will stick to my guns and possibly eat crow later. This probably seems like hype, but I think the NW Carribean/SE Gulf will be back in the NHC TWO within 48 hours. I think something might get going before thursday. Per my previous posts, the ridge is building even more in the region. Convection doesn't look impressive, but the wave interaction may become interesting here.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Re: It is a TD [Re: dem05]
      #37544 - Sun Jun 26 2005 11:09 PM

>>It may have briefly been a TD, but, isn't now.

It doesn't matter one way or the other, but the effects were there. extratropical low, non-tropical low, subtropical low, low with some tropical characteristics and partially of tropical origin, they still got an early taste of the season. Forget the MLC, the classification of the LLC could have gone either way. The weather was there. The observations were there. It doesn't amount to anything because even if it was a TD or STD, it doesn't count for named storms anyway. It's just an appetizer.

>>but I think the NW Carribean/SE Gulf will be back in the NHC TWO within 48 hours

Hard to say. There's some weather down there. There's some ridging overtop. But the weather pattern is still too complicated. I wouldn't expect anything to happen before Tuesday if at all. It's just something of a mild curiosity at this point.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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