Katie
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 167
Loc: Winter Haven, FL
|
|
Colleen - Phil is on vacation for a while. He will be back soon.
|
Lysis-in-Texas
Unregistered
|
|
I believe this is a TD. Someone must be sleeping...
|
Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
|
|
NRL has not changed yet, 95L is still 95L, it seems to be cutting close, so probably no classification at 5pm. Recon may still be investigating.
|
Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
|
|
It really doesn't matter if it's a TD or a disturbance. I don't get why such a big deal... 
--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
|
Lysis-in-Texas
Unregistered
|
|
True... the effects are going to be the same regardless of what they call it. The only difference is that people will take this more seriously if it "becomes" a cyclone, even if only for a few hours. In the end, why not? It just feels like 'the man' is trying to cheat someone. Think back to last season’s un-named cyclone over Hattie, and the one spawned by the ruminants of that did not receive a new name.
|
Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
|
|
This storm is moving much faster then the storm that was over Hati. But as of l2z run's the consensus was for more of an Allison type storm. Now they shoot it off into the Pacific. I remember analogs that JB presented, and they all supported a recurving storm. The recon plane probably did a part in model variations from the 12 and 18 z runs'.
--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
Edited by Keith234 (Tue Jun 28 2005 05:19 PM)
|
MapMaster
Unregistered
|
|
No recon data has been inout into a modl---it is JUST getting there.
Definitely a TD, probably close to a storm= 2.0 would put it there.
Central Gulf is certainly showing a lot of vorticity.....
MM :?:
|
MapMaster
Unregistered
|
|
Input into a model...:)
MM
|
HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
|
|
the 5:30 is out, and says that the system is a tropical cyclone 'very near t.s. strength' and that recon is incomplete. i guess they want to put out one advisory.. not have to issue one at 5pm and then another at 6:15 when they find gale force winds.. or something. but anyhow, there's our classified system.
HF 2219z28june
|
Lysis-in-Texas
Unregistered
|
|
Thanks Hank.
what'd i do? -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Tue Jun 28 2005 05:35 PM)
|
Rabbit
Weather Master
Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
|
|
does anyone think this has enough time/organization to become a TS before landfall?
official forecast for TD2 has TS intensity by 5 am
Edited by Rabbit (Tue Jun 28 2005 05:54 PM)
|
Lysis-in-Texas
Unregistered
|
|
what'd i do?
You're the man. 
|
HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
|
|
prolly, but then the likes to go conservative with these things. there's recon in it.. when the vortex msg gets back and they explain their current call (the system will be classified initially as t.d. 2), maybe we'll get a lead on what they're attitude towards the system is.
HF 2249z28june
|
Rabbit
Weather Master
Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
|
|
HF, what are your thoughts of the landfall intensity?
|
Lysis-in-Texas
Unregistered
|
|
EDIT: to rabbit: Tropical storm warnings have been issued, and it is moving slowly with a bit of a northward component, so it has some time yet to develop. The center is extremely close to land, but I think Bret may be on the horizon.
|
HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
|
|
the max fl wind recon snagged was 40kt.. ohhh great. so really what we have is tropical storm bret. 10% reduction yields 36kt or about 41mph... they're definitely playing conservative.
rabbit my take is.. just what the will probably say in the their advisory. the system will move onshore on a section of coast south of tampico that runs sort of diagonal to the track.. probably around 2am. it may or may not be ranked a tropical storm at landfall, because the may or may not choose to call a tropical storm a tropical storm.
HF 2302z28june
|
AMK
Unregistered
|
|
The recon data shows flightlevel winds of 40kt, maybe 40 mph at the surface. Either way, it really doesnt matter, except for people with the name of Bret who may want their storm to be a memorable one.
Of course I hope that we needent have any "memorable" storms this year
|
Rabbit
Weather Master
Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
|
|
i saw the wind speed forecast and it says that the chance of TS in 12 hours is 60%
and to show how rare it is--years with multiple storms in June (since 1950)
1957--TS#1 and Audrey
1959--Beulah and TS#3
1968--Abby, Brenda, and Candy
1982--Alberto and SubTS#1
1986--Andrew and Bonnie
2005-Arlene and Bret?
it is also interesting to note that TD2 failed to become a tropical storm in 1976 (shear), 1977 (shear), 1982 (landfall in Belize shortly after developing), 1983 (shear), 1984 (shear), 1991 (too poorly organized and ran out of water), 1992 (shear), 1994 (inland in SC about 15 minutes after developing), 1999 (inland in Mexico about 1 hour after developing), 2000 (shear and water temps), 2001 (shear), 2003 (shear), 2004 (shear; regenerated 5 days later)
then again Bertha in 2002 was a surprise developer, winds at 30 mph but became a TS right before developing, and this one is better organized than that one
i will venture to say it will be upgraded around 8 or 11 pm
|
Lysis-in-Texas
Unregistered
|
|
|
Moi
Unregistered
|
|
>>then again Bertha in 2002 was a surprise developer, winds at 30 mph but became a TS right before developing, and this one is better organized than that one
I remember Bertha. I went out to the point on Lake Pontchartrain and got splashed by waves. 
Steve
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
[Re: 
Edit
Reply
Quote
