Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Katie didn't say anything was weird...she was commenting on how much wetter we are than last year this time. You have to admit that we have had much more rain --- especially in the southern part of the state -- than we did last year. She's also correct about not needing a TV broadcast to tell whether or not it's going to rain based on what her hair does. Lots of people can tell in different ways -- their hands hurt, their knees hurt, etc. whether or not we are going to get rain. Whenever we have a low pressure system near us, I can tell because my right ear is extremely painful...it never fails. If my ear hurts a lot, I know we're going to get clobbered by t-storms.
I have to believe that before there were TV's, weather satellites, hurricane hunters and all the fancy gadgets we have today to predict weather, people could gage the weather based on their own instincts.
As for Bret being downgraded, I'm not that surprised since it wasn't that impressive of a storm to begin with...I'm just glad it isn't forecast to cause a lot of destruction.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Katie
Weather Guru
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Posts: 167
Loc: Winter Haven, FL
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Lysis - yeah, not a good place at all. I don't think that most of the communities near the Peace River in Bartow were able to even move back because of the flood damage before, so, this will only add salt to the cut.
I know my dad's nursery in Lake Placid is barely staying above water too. So, all in all, Florida just needs to dry out a bit.
An observation though, do you think it is possible that the turtles laid their eggs higher to avoid all the standing and rising water and not an outlook to the hurricane season? I know there was a discussion at one point, but, I am starting to wonder if it has nothing to do with hurricanes and more to do with flood waters. I dunno, just an idea.
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adogg76
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 53
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Hmmmm.....seems all is eerily quiet on the east coast here in Brevard. Not even a slight breeze in the air! Seems strange with all the activity today??
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Lysis-in-Texas
Unregistered
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Ladies... there is a tropical cyclone in our basin (albeit not for much longer). While I am endlessly intrigued about how your bodies have an innate ability to predict the weather, can we take this conversation to some place more appropriate?
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Katie
Weather Guru
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Posts: 167
Loc: Winter Haven, FL
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Not to change the subject off of Bret, but ... what is going on with the huge pop up of storms off the SouthWest coast of Florida?
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WatchtheIslands
Unregistered
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I think the wave just past the islands is the next area of concern. The and both indicate something approaching Texas in the early mid-week period next week. The playa is the wave further back, but with the last two storms, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see another tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico by next week. /wait and see approach
Steve
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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I believe that the storms you are speaking of are related to all the tropical moisture in the GOM. It's a perfect set-upfor t-storms: lots of warm tropical moisture, a little heating of the sun here and there, and an unstable atmosphere. There was a cluster of storms down towards Ft. Myers this morning and the local mets said we could get some severe storms later this afternoon.
As for Bret, I think his lifespan is just about over.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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I am very aware of the fact that there is a TD in the basin of the GOM. I am even more aware of the fact that he will be dead in about 12 hours when he interacts with land. If this was a storm that was a serious threat to any land areas, I can assure you that I would be more concerned. However, this is not the case.
I would also like to remind you that this is a forum for weather hobbyists and the comments that I made about how people can read the weather because of the way their bodies react IS weather related. I am not taking anything away from the forum by mentioning these phenomena that have been proven in scientific experiments. Moreover, it is not your place to tell me or anyone else what we can and cannot discuss on this board. I have been here for a long time and I think that most people that are regulars here will vouch for me when I tell you that when the going gets rough I do not post anything that would take away from an impending disaster. I went through 3 hurricanes last year as did Katie and many here. Had I been talking about Natalee Holloway or the war in Iraq, your comments would have been appropriate and the moderators would have erased my post without blinking their eyes. So far they have not done that but if they choose to, I will respect their decision.
Now, let's just start over and I hope you have a good day.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Lysis-in-Texas
Unregistered
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While I am not sure what your past hurricane experiences have to do with this, you have been here longer than I have, so I suppose you have the right of way. I am not a moderator anyway.
Let's be nice to one another...OK.
Edited by Storm Cooper (Wed Jun 29 2005 06:47 PM)
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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I wish you would register so that I could reply to you privately instead of taking up space on this forum. That being said, what I mean is this: last year I went through , and Jeanne. In those instances, I knew that because there was a lot of information that needed to get out to others, I didn't post something unless it had something to do directly with each of those storms.
Now let's put this baby to rest.
Thank You.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
Edited by danielw (Wed Jun 29 2005 09:45 PM)
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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I see where the models are picking up on that Tropical Wave and developing it. However, the forecast problem appears to be whether or not a trough will pick the system up and recurve it. If not, it could be a problem down the road, as the water is much warmer than normal across the central atlantic and caribbean.
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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The globals had something going on there 360 hour a couple days back, but I'm not akin to this behavior. There's actually a strong Upper level ridge pushing off the east coast as we speak, this will depart and result in a blocky pattern over the east coast. Now according to the , this will prevent any track that would lead to a east coast landfall, and keep it south. By 144 hours the disturbance is already in the leeward islands...I would imagine the shear would be great in an area between two highs, therefore development would be hindered.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Jamie,
I'm talking about the first wave, not the second. The second (the one I called the playa) will have more issues with a trof than the islands wave. The islands wave is already up against a trof that is migrating down to the SW (already has its nose into the Pacific Ocean). So as soon as that backs away, a ridge should build overtop. With high pressure entrenched across the Atlanic at least for the next 4-5 days, I think it's a Mexico or Texas system most likely, but obviously, it's WAAAAAAAAAAAY to early to even say that since all we have is a wave anyway. But it looks pretty solid on sat.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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Seems to be and are picking it up more so than the others? Are there others you are looking at which are more pronounced?
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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I haven't looked at the 12Z's today at all, but last night's (European) run even closed off some isobars. While it did the same thing with what became Bret (and was too far north) it was the only model from 6 days out that showed that ripple coming through the Yucatan channel.
I'll look at the models later and see if they're doing anything with the forerunner.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Hurricane Fredrick 1979
Weather Guru
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Posts: 116
Loc: Mobile,Alabama
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Has anyone ran the NOGAP model today? It shows something going on in the NGOM about 140hrs out.
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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NOGAPS is not a long range model, more like a mid-range model. I wouldn't trust it that far out.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
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Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Quote:
...I would also like to remind you that this is a forum for weather hobbyists and the comments that I made about how people can read the weather because of the way their bodies react IS weather related...
...Now, let's just start over and I hope you have a good day.
That's rich.
My joints ache when the pressure drops. Especially my knees and hips. Must be from all the long hikes (25 miles or more at a time) in the Marine Corps. Jeanne seemed to affect me more than Charlie or . I recall my ears popping at one point when the remnants of the eye of Jeanne moved over head.
Our bodies are amazing machines that are very sensitive to our surroundings and environment. Before satellites and radar, that's about all we had.
I for one am greatful for everyone's input in these forums.
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MapMaster
Unregistered
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Here here, agree 100% with Colleen, who epitomizes her fine name!!
My 2 cents worth, now, back to your regularly scheduled hurricane season. 
MM
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Ed G
Unregistered
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the best way to handle a post you don't care for...control the urge to respond and completely ignore it.
can't believe flaming would start to rear it's ugly head on this board.
Ed
Clermont, Fl
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