danielw
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Thanks for all of your input, and most of the output too!
While this isn't the "Storm Forum", we do need to try and stay On Topic.
I didn't say anyone Was Off Topic, but I think we came close enough.
Note: Personal attacks will be removed from the board, and the sentence will be left up to John, Mike and ED. Not necessarily in that order.
Thanks. 
Those of you that aren't registered. Please feel free to register. We don't do popups or ads.
It allows members to PM you instead of having to post it on the board.
I've been watching the 'playa' tm Steve, since it rolled of the African Coast. At that time it was more than 10 degrees, in length, N to S, and contained a large amount of convection. Once it passed into the Atlantic, the convection dropped to almost half it's previous coverage.
GFS has been picking up on this wave for the last 24-48 hours. However, as big and tough as it looks. The is taking it to the NE side of the Lesser Antilles. And then into the Central Atlantic.
Along the southern trailing edge of this wave is indicating a smaller, more intense vortice at 850mb. This vortice is predicted to move on a more westerly track. But the mountains of the Lesser Antilles manage to knock the spin (helicity) out of it. Wave does maintain a poorly visible signature into the Caribbean Sea. But I don't recall seeing it pass Jamaica.
GOM...a few surface lows with rain and 10-20kt winds popped up now and then in the GOM. None were able to maintain a vortice or TS force winds at 850mb.
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Justin in Miami
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Next week could be interesting....watch Joe Bastardi's video (I know but it's free!)
http://weather.yahoo.com/vidindex/index.html
Very interested in viewing the model runs the next couple of days into early next week.
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butch
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low center forming south of mobile look at local radar
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HanKFranK
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eyeballed joe b, checked steve's commentary.. noticed some new stuff in model runs.. yeah, this is going to be an interesting weekend.
steve's playa is very large and it's tilted longitudinally. makes me think it is developing too quickly in the models and tracking too far north. it will probably start to go friday or saturday.. my reckoning is that it's best chance to catch the trough is to develop sooner. as for the trough, the models are consistently showing recurvature on it. as we've got good support for the playa to get its act together, the timing, organization rate, and latitude of whatever consolidates will figure big in where this sucker could end up. that trough will also be splitting when the playa is bearing down on it, so it may charge right into it rather than sweep out to sea ahead of it. both euro and are recurving it though, so there is more confidence in that scenario at this point.
the forerunner.. something i'd been moderately interested in but ignoring.. is that wave near 65w, which the swiveling has blown up to have a monster signature. i hadn't noticed the euro toying with it near the yucatan over the weekend... bastardi pointed that out and steve has added his two cents worth. just recently noticed that is developing a low over the weekend in the northwestern caribbean.. it divides the upper trough out and has the backing along the pacific pressing into central america again. got to watch the models to see if they keep seeing lowering pressures near the yucatan over the weekend.
there's an outside chance that a low develops in the trough strung over the southeast u.s., but low probability it could significantly develop. it's nature would be dubious at best.
bret is still well structured in spite of coming ashore as a tiny system. bastardi has alluded to it having been stronger based on signature.. i was thinking the same thing myself. will be interested to see the post analysis and any surface reports from its landfall point (tuxpan and tampico should have some interesting pressure and wind data).
anywho... active june about to transition into an active july.. i think.
HF 0051z30june
Edited by HanKFranK (Thu Jun 30 2005 12:00 AM)
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ftlaudbob
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Very interesting video Joe has.I can only hope he is wrong.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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Colleen A.
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Yes, that was interesting. One thing (among others) that peaked my interest was when he was talking about the bluefish near the Jersey coast line. My Dad loved to go fishing for bluefish, but he always did it near the end of July and August....just like Joe said, except that they are (the fish) acting as IF it's July or August.
I take it he has/had a problem with the ? That was interesting to listen to, also.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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HanKFranK
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colleen, that's typical bastardi. he takes issue with the NOAA/nhc official line on things all the time. Accuweather has taken that attitude to government weather sources in general. i do feel indebted to the guy... i've learned a lot from him. he usually stays a step or two ahead of the government sources.
far as the bluefish go.. i remember those things from maryland. never was any good at catching them.
HF 0532z30june
Edited by HanKFranK (Thu Jun 30 2005 04:43 AM)
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Tazmanian93
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Yes, JB had some very interesting info and insight. Anyone know where I could find a overlay/comparison this year/last year of air pressure, surface temperatures, winds at the upper, middle and lower levels? I hope it is ok to write this ) Use to keep a boat in Ellington/Mayo MD and use to go Blue Fishing all the time but as stated, later than now. My first blue as a kid, caught and he caught me. Left him on the line, young/dumb, went to take him off the line, thought he was sleepin or dead. Got him off the line, son of gun bit my finger, darn near all the way through. Still got the scar LOL. I miss Phillips Crab House !!!
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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recmod
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I'd like some input by the meteorlogical gurus (you know who you are~ Clark, Jason Kelley, HankFrank...just to name a couple) on the feasibility of the scenario presented in Bastardi's video actually occuring this early in the season. Is it really possible to be staring down a major hurricane approaching the Southeast US coast next week?????
I posed this same question on another weather forum and a pro met stated that the pattern set-up was very similar to 's environment of last year. This met said that, if Bastardi's east coast trof misses the tropical wave currently over the eastern Atlantic, then it is quite likely the system will strengthen dramatically as it turns back to the west toward the Southeast US coast.
Any comments?....could this be our first "real" threat of the 2005 season???
--Lou
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GuppieGrouper
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While you are waiting for your answer. I would like to point out that complex of thunderstorms in the Western Caribbean this morning. It is awsome and huge. I know it could just be yesterday's land run-off, but the critters in my area are acting "funny" again, aside from the yellow rain coats and slickers.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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Wingman51
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I can just about assure Florida a safe weekend - - (I'm going to Savannah) - - but I have watched with great interest the emerging CV waves. I distinctly remember many METS indication in April and May that the CV season was going to be early this year, and strong, because of elevated SST's. I guess the question becomes has the current activity changed the prevailing SST's enough to make a substantial difference?
(off-topic material removed - not that there hasn't been a bunch of it before this post as well - please stay on topic.)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Jul 02 2005 12:16 PM)
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Tazmanian93
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Looks like is keeping the Carib mess west @ 120hrs, close to where Brett touched down. Could the Experts also check my post @ 2:56am for overlay/comparison info, thanks
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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AgentB
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It's definitely been an interesting June, and like others have said, will probably transition into an active July.
(off-topic material removed)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Jul 02 2005 12:18 PM)
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Wingman51
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I just noticed picking up a circulation at 120 hours. They are developing it from the wave at 11 N - 32 W and closing the circulation at 120 hours at 22 N - 58 W. Is ther any additional support for this development?? 
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doug
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If this pattern continues we will have a very busy late season...I think it is very rare to have the waves from Africa show such persistence this early, and the real player the bermuda High is now setting it self up in position, where that settles in the next week or two will have a lot to say about location of these storms in relationship to later in the season.
For the immediate: Watch the SW Caribbean again...High pressure to the North, an exiting ULL to the west and the moisture train off the So. America continent, and there is some signature there already according to the TWD today.
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doug
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HF at work
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that stuff in the sw caribbean is more show than substance for now. it's all well ahead of the approaching wave axis, though it's propagation offshore, the ridging aloft, and the convergence line north of panama indicate that as the wave moves into the western caribbean the environment will support it. this morning was still trying to develop a surface trough/low east of the yucatan by the weekend.
the playa is showing signs of sharpening today. convection is modest north of the , but you can see cyclonic turning in the low levels and what may be a weak surface low near 34w. off to the sw a strong convergence line is anchoring the leading edge of the wave and augmenting the bulge in the easterly surface flow that the wave can potentially close off against. i really didn't expect to see the level of organization that i'm seeing out of this wave.. it's probably going to be an invest within 24 hrs. how quickly it organizes is tricky since the environment ahead is dry. i think it will stunt the development of a depression until at least late saturday. the water temps don't really start to rise until west of 40w anyway.
do i think this thing will develop.. good chance.
HF 1745z30june
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rmbjoe1954
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That circulation near 34W reminds me of Francis; but it is interesting to see the conveyor belt of waves streaming out of Africa this early in the season- perhaps we will have an early CV season. Ironically, if hurricanes were to from this early I'd bet they wouldn't be as strong as late season systems beacuse the water temps are not as warm as they could get later on. In any event early systems would have the benefit of cooling off the sea surface temp later on-thus preventing monster stroms from developing. So- perhaps it's better for all of us if CV season starts early.?? 
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________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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Rabbit
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are you saying the system in the Atlantic will be an invest?
its more likely to be in the Caribbean; if you look at satellite loops you can see a definate turn as well as strong easterly winds comming across from the Pacific, similar to what was going on when developed
caribbean system
update: forgot to update my numbers--officially two storms for June (i seriously doubt we'll have Cindy by the end of the day)
my forecast now-17 storms (remember i base this on storms per month, i will not change the monthly forecasts at all, this is essentially forecasting how many more i think there will be, which will not change)
Edited by Rabbit (Thu Jun 30 2005 06:12 PM)
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danielw
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You are reading my mind. I was wondering about the early CV season cooling the SSTs off. Might be a good thing.
Never thought I'd look at an early CV season.
A continous train of waves should keep some of the ingredients at bay, or at minimal levels.
5 tropical storms versus 5 hurricanes.
Water tables are high so I'm not sure about the tropical storms. Would need to be fast movers to keep flooding down to a minimum. Hurricanes seems to move faster as their steering currents are higher in the atmosphere.
Plan for the worst, and hope for the best~late Wade Guice, Harrison County, MS CD Director
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danielw
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TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
220 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2005
TUTT LOW FORECAST JUST NORTH OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N 86W AT 24 HRS WILL MOVE WEST INTO NORTHERN GUATEMALA BY 48 HRS AND TURN TO THE NORTHWEST MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 22N 92W BY 72 HRS. THE LOW WILL ADVECT MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND JAMAICA THROUGH 72 HRS. EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 20-40MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 40-60MM/DAY. AS DRIFTS WEST EXPECT IT TO ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER
NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...BELIZE...GUATEMALA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. AS THE LOW INTERACTS WITH MOISTURE OVER THIS REGION...EXPECT DAILY RAINFALL OF 15-25MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 40-60MM/DAY MAINLY AFTER 24 HRS.
If you look real close. At the SW Caribbean. You can see a vortice center (eye-like feature), on the follwing links.
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/VNG12-15152005181.jpg
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/VNG12-15452005181.jpg
Much better version at this link.
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES15452005181aOUVnr.jpg
Edited by danielw (Thu Jun 30 2005 07:23 PM)
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