MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Saturday, 2 July AM Update
NHC is watching the SW Caribbean disturbance closely, and there are signs of development this morning. A Hurricane Hunter tasking is likely tomorrow, and further development is possible with the system, as the environment around the system is become less hostile and more favorable. Keep watching...
Original Post
Lots of focus has been paid attention to the disturbance in the Southwestern Caribbean It has a somewhat startling appearance on satellite, but the structure of it is not conducive for development.
The chance for development graph for this system:
Code:
forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
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Pressures are not falling, and I honestly don't think the situation around it will improve enough over time for it to develop into much, if anything at all. We'll be watching it, but don't expect any development out of the system.
Edited by wxman007 (Sat Jul 02 2005 12:25 PM)
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Metairie, LA
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>>But my question about classifications still is there.
It's for an upcoming test per University of Miami's Derek Ortt. I asked the same question, he said it was a test.
The 2 in 10 shot you guys have listed is probably accurate. But I'm betting that graph creeps up within 48 hours. The convection and the wave are starting to bust through the shear from the which (to me at least) now appears to be cut off from its earlier source. A shortwave (which actually looks more like an ULL) has alread passed the northern edge of the which should pretty much continue to stretch and become a non entity until the next one forms. Once the wave action gets beyond that shear zone, it's anyone's guess. My early take is that this poses a potential threat to NE Mexico or the southern or central Texas coasts. We'll have to see.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Hurricane Fredrick 1979
Weather Guru
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Loc: Mobile,Alabama
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The model carries it to the Southern Texas coast
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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The new 18Z is taking a small 850mb vortice across the Northern Yucatan and into the Galveston/ Beaumont area around noon on Wednesday.
Not anything to speak of, as Mike said.
Houston is probably going to break an all time June record for rain. 0.08" this month.
They can probably use a good shower ot two.
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Clark
Meteorologist
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To clarify on the designations: there is a big field project during the month of July in the waters just off of Central America in the E. Pacific called TCSB, Tropical Cloud Systems & Processes in long-hand. It's the fifth in a series of similar projects over the past 15-20 years or so...mainly focusing on tropical convection and tropical cyclone formation (or what happens with waves that form...as well as those that don't form). They've got that program set up for the forecasters down there to have easy access to the microwave imagery & other related data.
As for Bret...well, I'll have to eat crow. It kinda popped up on me -- I've been in Washington D.C. all week until now -- but definitely had the look of a tropical cyclone. That in the SW Caribbean piques my interest, but I'm not terribly concerned. Everything is shaping up for July to be an active month, however, so let's hope that we at least get some sort of break before it begins.
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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That 39 west and south of 16 north based on this morning and afternoon looks to be plotted a bit more south now. Would love to see an overlay of this one and Bertha.
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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Loc: Tampa
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Certainly looks as if it has potential to be more than a small vortice, your thoughts? http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES02152005182h2DYbk.jpg
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
Edited by Tazmanian93 (Thu Jun 30 2005 10:49 PM)
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Check again
Unregistered
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I think you might want to bump the scale up a little bit there. A 2? The system is moving into a favorable area for development and it's blowing up tonight like a nuclear bomb. I'm surely watching it a lot closer than I would give a 2 of 10 to.
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HanKFranK
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sw carib feature has stolen the show as far as attention goes. globals have been tracking the moisture wnw into the western gulf by the middle of next week.. if development occurs along the way the pattern would be such that it turns north and hits the u.s. (louisiana or something), so definitely worth watching. 11pm two mentions that the system will be in a favorable environment... i'd watch for the like surface trough north of panama to turn up a small low on the wave axis as it advances. there's already induced vorticity in the atmosphere as the convection has been kicking down there all day.. i'd say that in that scramble we'll see a low pressure are develop near san andres island tomorrow.
wave near 40w.. it's large and diffuse, but very good signature still and low pressure trying to develop in the sw-ne oriented atmospheric turning. as the system gets near 45-50w water temperatures are much warmer; i'm thinking that a discrete surface low will form out of this wave some time saturday. think this system will organize slowly and not go north of the islands and turn up at 60w as the models had been doing for days.. but stay weaker and further south.. and be with us for days to come.
gfs showing more suspicious features past the current wave.. tis the season.
HF 0432z01july
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Clark
Meteorologist
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There's no surface reflection yet, and the 850mb vorticity analysis doesn't show a whole lot there yet, either. Wind shear is low and getting lower -- tendencies are strongly lower -- and, of course, as long as it stays away from the west coast of the Caribbean Sea, it's in some of the warmest, deepest waters in the basin. Aiding the convection is an area of diverging winds aloft to the east of the upper-level ridge building across the region.
Might see an invest on it tomorrow if current trends continue, but you also have to factor in that we are into the nighttime hours where convection tends to fire in the tropics due to the nighttime convective maximum. Weakening upper low near Belize and departing upper-low northeast of Puerto Rico should help outflow a little but have negligible impact otherwise. I might give it a bit higher than a 2 now, but remember -- there wasn't a whole lot when the post was written, and it's certainly not for-sure that we get something there.
As an aside -- any development we might see out in the central or eastern Atlantic is likely going to be hindered by a fair amount of mid & low-level dry air over the next few days, as is present now and forecast by the models to be there. Get it to about 50 W and you might see something, though. Heat content has been pretty high in that region most of the early season, though not quite as much so now as it was a week or so ago. Don't see much reason to go against HF's reasoning above.
Anything that gets going in the Caribbean -- or doesn't, for that matter -- should follow a path similar to Bret, perhaps with a bit more of a northward component as it moves into the Gulf.
Bottom line: check back in the morning to see what happens. It's got a shot, as does anything this time of year down there (and I'm not going to write anything off this time around), but until it can stick together and become a bit better organized, it's just another convective "blob" to watch.
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION (edited)
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
130 AM EDT FRI JUL 01 2005
GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH PRES RIDGE ALONG 25N/26N THROUGH SUN...THEN SHIFTING N TO AROUND 28N MON AND TUE. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SUN AFTN.
THE ...NOGAPS...AND UKMET SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN SLY FLOW W OF 95W SAT NIGHT AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS SLIGHTLY OVER W TX. FRESH E TO SELY FLOW RETURNS TO SRN GULF S OF 25N EARLY MON MRNG...SPREADING TO N GULF EARLY TUE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS E FROM SW ATLC. SE TO S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT COVER ENTIRE GULF BY TUE EVE.
A FEW OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AS WELL AS THE SUGGEST A LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AROUND MON...POSSIBLY TRIGGERED BY A TROPICAL WAVE. NEITHER MODELS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE ...GFS/NAM...FSU AND THE
CANADIAN ALL SUGGEST A WEAK LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS SUN AND MOVING INTO THE SW GULF/BAY OF CAMPECHE AS A WEAK LOW OR TROUGH MON...BECOMING LESS DEFINED TUE.
full discussion at following link
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAMIMATS.shtml?
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MikeC
Admin
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Yep, I still consider a 2 about right. IT did flare up overnight, but it hasn't persisted, and that's one of the main things I key off of. There's a few more things going for it now, development wise, but organization still isn't one of them.
The scale is a measure of how much I think it will develop, usually over 36-48 hours, beyond that I'm not sure, but by then the presense or lack of organization will tell the story.
What I look for when I come up with that numbers, are watching long sat loops, looking at forecasted conditions beyond it, looking at conditions around it, climatology and the time of year, and looking for any signs of persistence. It's just not meeting that right now to get a high "score". Although the forecasted conditions are in its favor, some of the other things aren't now. It's a learning process to pick up on these. I may very well be wrong, but I hope not. I really would rather have nothing to track at all. I very much dislike what these storms can do.
If I'm missing something let everyone know, or if you have a question on why I might say something. I'm very anti-hype in general. I'm not a met, I'm a programmer with a strong interest in not having to deal with storms, but want to know the facts if one does occur.
It sure did look impressive on satellite overnight, but looks aren't everything. I may change it later today if things persist, or I can find more good data. My approach is to look for reasons for it not to develop, rather than to look for ways it could.
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Well, come morning, most of the convection has died off -- though some may be trying to reform further to the southwest. The upper-low is still there, east of Belize, however. The convection dying off may not be a bad thing necessarily -- large bursts of convection can spin-up a low-level vortex and precondition the environment for sustained convection later on down the line -- but does signify that nothing is imminent.
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Robert
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 364
Loc: Southeast, FL
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yo yo whats up evry one new year looks to be an active one alla 95'. Talk to you all later
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Mapmaster
Unregistered
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Look like a center is slowly emerging sw of Jamaica---that is the center of a large radius turning....
MM
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Orlando, FL
Unregistered
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The media is taking interest in this wave all of a sudden.. interesting. 
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
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Are you referring to the wave south of Cuba?
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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This evening's Tropical Weather Discussion is very informative, and quite interesting.
From Africa to the GOM.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/012351.shtml?
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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One the best and thorough preliminary action write-ups I have seen.
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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The most thorough discussion I've seen in years.
As close to a picture as you could ask.
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