lawgator
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 75
Loc: E C Fla.
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Hey, can anyone tell me what the models are doing with the system to the East of the Antilles? I mean in terms of projected path and intensity. A link would be even better. Someone earlier said South Florida in a post and wanted to see where that's coming from.
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
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Latest model runs.
Edited by Old Sailor (Mon Jul 04 2005 12:14 AM)
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dem05
User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
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Not a problem Sailor. I almost said the same then I saw the 5 day. In some ways, it might be less confusing if the 5-day was the only one issued. In the mean time, if there is going to be a named system, I hope for weak ones that don't create flooding, but help folks fill the aquifers. I know the w. gulf needs some rain here.
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lawgator
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 75
Loc: E C Fla.
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Thanks Sailor but I was talking about the system to the East of the Antilles, not T.D. #3.
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the watcher
Unregistered
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I think that anyone in the cone or near it should pay close attention because i think we all know that these "cone's of uncertainty" have changed,can change,and will continue to change untill they become known as the "cone's of certainty". they usually have a good prediction with the first 2 days but then it becomes more complicated and hard to predict because you never know what little factors will play out as the days go by........the does a great job...i thank them and everyone else who provides people with info..
w.
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dem05
User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
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The National Hurricane Center wants all residents to within a cone of a system to pay attention. The cones that they construct factor in their average error in forecasting. In presentations I've attended, they have always acknowledged that the cone is the best thing to pay attention to.
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the watcher
Unregistered
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Quick Question. I noticed that there are 2 "blobs" of convection one just west of the antilles and one east. question is which one is the threat or are they associated together or might they possibly both develope? i know everyone's been talking about it just wasnt sure if it was just one or both?
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the watcher
Unregistered
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DEM, cool, nice to know you knowwhat your talking about im an amateur and just know from what ive learned since i could remeber and being a florida resdent for life, and i love the weather and studying it exspecialy tropics... favorite thing is learning from people smarter than me.. so thanx
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dem05
User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
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Hi watcher, just want to let you know I'm not a professional meteorologist. But in my job, I definately pay close attention to what they say. I've met some of their personell and I respect everything they do to help people under the know capabilities of science. Hopefully, you will become a registered user too, I can e-mail some cool links.
Moderators, I hope I haven't strayed off topic at the end here, but I definately wanted to reply. If so, my apologies.
naw man, you're a-ok. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Mon Jul 04 2005 02:03 AM)
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the watcher
Unregistered
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on the infared images of TD 3 the convective burst seems to have started moving more notherly on the last few frames...not sure if that means the center has butjust wanted to bring it up.. dem05..i probably will register soon when i do i'll make sure and get in touch with you...cant wait to chat about TD3 or possibly cindy in the morning..........watcher....out.
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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td 3 is now trekking onshore on the yucatan. shouldn't change a whole lot between now and re-emergence tomorrow evening. i'm of the opinion that the intensity track is well below what we'll see.. and am going to stick with louisiana in general as my target. all the better if it gets the rural bayou country, because there's lots of stuff to break around beaumont and houston. i'm sure people in new iberia or morgan city don't like hearing that.. sorry. my target for now is cameron to grand isle with a focus around vermillion bay... tentatively a low range hurricane (though i have low confidence in the intensity). globals mostly bank the moisture from the system ene after going onshore... more rain working its way east to where we've already had our share (it's rained a lot not just in florida, but up the atlantic coastal plain).
away east the wave around trinidad is looking ominous. if a vorticity center from this thing gets clear of the south american coast.. expect trouble. the environment is modestly favorable.. a good convergent area is piling up east of trinidad on the back barrel of this wave, and it may clear just north of the island. all of the globals are tracking this thing in some fashion, either as a strong wave, spawning low pressure along it in the central caribbean within 48 hr, or waiting 3-5 days. has the most ominous solution i've seen.. 00Z brings a well-developed tropical system across cuba and the keys and up the western side of the florida peninsula late this week. there's logic in that, in that the mid level ridge which future cindy should sweep around will weaken, and whatever system is in the caribbean will migrate towards the lowering heights. coming up east or west of florida.. or even over to the yucatan.. dependent on how this system evolves any of these ideas hold water right now. all progs are dubious as long as the mass of the wave convection stays stuck to the south american coast, so lets hope it glides across and keeps low... that's the surest thing that can stop it from developing. however, i'm thinking this thing will develop at some point.. it's already delayed quite a bit on that note (early/mid last week expected it to be a classified system on saturday).
big chunky wave coming off africa.. and models flaring the weak wave in halfway across just a tad by late week as well.. lots going on for july.
HF 0726z04july
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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NHC has just issued the 5 AM EDT Tropical Depression Three Discussion.
For the full text of all advisories on TD 3 go to the main page.
http://flhurricane.com/ or http://www.nhc.noaa.gov
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE IS SHOWING INTERESTING STRUCTURAL DEVELOPMENTS THIS MORNING. A STRONG AND PERSISTENT AREA OF CONVECTION HAS FORMED NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CENTER OVER THE EAST CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA...WHICH SUGGESTS THE INNER CORE IS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE OVERALL CIRCULATION IS BECOMING ELONGATED NORTH-SOUTH...WITH A SECOND VORTICITY MAXIMUM APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF YUCATAN. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM AND 25 KT FROM AFWA...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT. (edited~danielw)
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/040859.shtml
Please check the Official forecasts. And continue to check the forecasts, as they change, to some degree every 6 hours. In some cases less than 6 hours.
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Big tk
Unregistered
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Tropical wave now entering the carb is predicted to strengthen into a tropical system with the next 2 days. I've been looking a several models this morning and they are playing out a freighting scenario one of them takes it straight up the coast of west Florida. Is there any chance of this occurring?
Tampa bay area Resident
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LadyStorm
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 154
Loc: United States
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Quote:
Tropical wave now entering the carb is predicted to strengthen into a tropical system with the next 2 days. I've been looking a several models this morning and they are playing out a freighting scenario one of them takes it straight up the coast of west Florida. Is there any chance of this occurring?
Can you post a link to that model?
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"The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of
thinking we were at when we created them"
..........Albert Einstein
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Big Tk
Unregistered
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Sure....http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
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Terra
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
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Ok, I finally realize why people look at these moe.fsu models.... For some reason, in IE, the animation doesn't load and until now, I've been trying to mentally place together frame by frame snapshots. However, it Netscape, it worked.... Question, who's model is the (is it the Canadian model?)? And, is it just focusing on the new wave, or should I be seeing its predictions for TD 3 also? Reason I ask, is it doesn't seem to be doing much for TD 3 and that's my general thought (well, other than be a rain event.... which seems to disagree with everyone) because of the Yucatan....
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Terra Dassau Cahill
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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That does not look to be the only model that takes it to the coast either e-w or straight up the middle?
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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javlin
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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For some reasons Terra the models are not doing a whole lot with any of them even as Depressions.The is the only one really doing anything really significant,It's just weird when three weeks ago if a raindrop fell we had a low press system.Others have said there was problems with convective feedback into the program.The shape of TD3 and the dry slot to the W I don't think it goes W much more,she's elongating NW to SE.
The changed it's tune from yesterday from central LA to central TX @90kts.Odd most of the models seem to be leaning right.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.c...;hour=Animation
Edited by javlin (Mon Jul 04 2005 09:08 AM)
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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Good Morning:
I am concerned that the elongation is foretelling an alteration in thinking after the original LLC which still shows some vigor emerges off the coast this morning...the general motion of the moisture is NNE...the discusssion suggested some other evidence of vorticity in the system so soem reorganization with TD3 will be in order...then lets see
As for the other feature if that were only 5 degrees north OH MY!..I agree with HF on the future of this..it needs to escape the continent...but that depends on its organization too..it can happen..stay tuned..that one looks scary already.
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doug
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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This storm TD#3 and the prospective #4 are both very much cliff hangers. We can take the models to this point shake them up and throw them like dice and have an even chance of 50 -50.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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