Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Whoa...hold the horses there Javlin. Where did I say this thing was going to landfall as a minimal hurricane? I purely speculated that the intensity forecast was tricky.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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Prospero
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 267
Loc: Gulfport, FL
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I don't know for sure, I guess, but the center looks farther east than where it is said to be. At least it does not look like it is moving west at all, more like due north.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html
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Gulfport Florida Webcam - Gulfport Florida Weather Station - Clearwater Beach Cams
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Visible show that TD Three is really still poorly organised. The core of the system needs to consolidate more, and i think this will probably happen overnight tonight as the centre finally completes its reformation / relocation. Dont think we will see this become a TS til some time tomorrow. And then it could easily be a race between this one and the developing TD over the Windwards as to which one gets what name!
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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the watcher
Unregistered
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i agree with prospero.. the center looks well north than forecasted and it seems to be moving practically due north on vis. i dont think it will go much farther to the west...... i think that the track will continue to shift eastward.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Back from Daytona...thank goodness!! So we're looking at TD#3/Cindy taking aim at the Northern Gulf Coast (TS Watches are up along part of the LA coast - but not NO) and possibly TD#4/Dennis taking aim at some part of the Florida peninsula by the end of THIS week? Jeez. I go away for 4 days....
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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lawgator
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 75
Loc: E C Fla.
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Can anyone provide a link to model runs for what may be T.D. 4 around the Antilles?
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HurricaneChaser
Unregistered
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http://headlines.accuweather.com/news-story.asp?partner=accuweather&myadc=0&article=2
TD 4/ THE MENACE could threaten FLA...STORM NUMBER 7 if it does for FLORIDA in LESS THAN A YEAR...UNBELIEVABLE...
Storms 1-6 were bonnie, , , jeanne, , and '05
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Storm Cooper
User
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Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
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Go to the Main Page of this site and look at the bottom of the page.
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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lawgator
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 75
Loc: E C Fla.
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which particular site do you recomend? Bear in mind I am a novice.
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Storm Cooper
User
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Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
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Hold on and I'll PM you some links...
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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lawgator
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 75
Loc: E C Fla.
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Thanks, cooper. Appreciate that.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Hey StormCooper...could you please PM those links to me also? You'd think I'd know by now, but I admit I still need some help. TYVM!!! 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Prospero
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 267
Loc: Gulfport, FL
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The IR shows a central point of circulation:
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Gulfport Florida Webcam - Gulfport Florida Weather Station - Clearwater Beach Cams
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Storm Cooper
User
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Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
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I PM'ed you but w/ my copy & paste skills...well, let me know if you need it sent again.
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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lawgator
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 75
Loc: E C Fla.
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I got it. Thanks much.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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No, that was great! Thanks very much!
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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the watcher
Unregistered
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my thoughts on the strong trop. wave is if, or should i say when it developes i think it will be the panhandle of florida or the west coast........im not sold with the east coast taking the hit, but who knows....whats your thoughts
w.
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lawgator
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 75
Loc: E C Fla.
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Courtesy of Cooper, I am looking at the models. Some show it brushing the SW part of the state on its way to La. or east to the panhandle One shows it brushing the E coast of the state. I think you have to wait to see where the center develops, if one does, and then see how the models initialize it. One would think that the longer it takes to get its act together, the further west the likely path.
I will say that, if my assumption is correct that the larger the number of concentric rings around the center in the models, then the higher the winds and stornger the storm, there's one or two models that are particularly nasty.
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
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Right now it is a crap shoot as to East Coast or West Coast, but if the track goes into Eastern Cuba , storm will weaken over the mountians.
http://weather.net-waves.com/model.php
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Storm Cooper
User
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Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
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I was going to hold off a while, but good post Old Sailor! I have a few more runs than you do but the main ones are the same. NOTE: They are just model runs, and very early ones at that.
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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