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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Rabbit
Weather Master


Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
Re: Hurricane Dennis in the Caribbean [Re: bigpapi]
      #38623 - Wed Jul 06 2005 07:06 PM

it might be moving NW, but it might also be a combination of the expanding outflow/convection and the repositioning of the center (the 6pm adv. had it 1/10 degree due north of the 5pm adv.)

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FelixPuntaGorda
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 23
Loc: Punta Gorda, FL
Re: Hurricane Dennis in the Caribbean [Re: firestar_1]
      #38624 - Wed Jul 06 2005 07:09 PM

It sure is comforting to see all of you still here from last year. I have a question about storm surge, which was what I was most terrified of during Charley. Thank goodness it didn't happen.

I'm wondering, if Dennis skirts our west coast, how close in would it have to pass for us to get a significant surge? Our house is at 9 feet elevation on a canal just off Charlotte Harbor in Punta Gorda.


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Southern4sure
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 121
Loc: Land O Lakes, FL
Re: Best Meteorologist in Tampa [Re: FlaMommy]
      #38625 - Wed Jul 06 2005 07:09 PM

Quote:

hi southern ...well...to be honest with you....alot of the meteorologists here in tampa pretty much hype things up or they sugar coat everything....there have been several stations insisting that tampa is out of the running which i firmly dont believe...i honestly listen to what is being said here more so than on my local channels....just my opinion....stay safe and pray we dont get it....




I agree with you. I watch one station and Tampa is targeted then another is Tampa is out of the target area. No wonder people get confused and are not prepared. Im like you, I get my info here first. Thank you to all the mets and general hurricane enthusiasts who help bring forth the info. Keep up the good work!


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AndyG
Weather Watcher


Reged: Mon
Posts: 35
Loc: Bradenton, FL
Re: Hurricane Dennis in the Caribbean [Re: Rabbit]
      #38626 - Wed Jul 06 2005 07:10 PM

From what I can tell on my tracking map, it looks like it's making somewhat of a N swing. Does anyone else notice that?

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Rabbit
Weather Master


Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
Re: Hurricane Dennis in the Caribbean [Re: FelixPuntaGorda]
      #38627 - Wed Jul 06 2005 07:12 PM

Cat III direct hit would produce a 15 foot surge, but im not sure what the surge would be if the center passes offshore, but i do know that the whole west coast is in for some very large swells if this thing goes to Cat III as forecast (possibly 15-20 ft swells)
but i dont know what a surge would be like, but those swells shouldnt be anywhere near the homes if the surge is low


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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: Best Meteorologist in Tampa [Re: Southern4sure]
      #38628 - Wed Jul 06 2005 07:15 PM

Tom Terry from Orlando won my admiration during the 3 marauders last year.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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Southern4sure
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 121
Loc: Land O Lakes, FL
Re: Best Meteorologist in Tampa [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #38629 - Wed Jul 06 2005 07:16 PM

What station or channel?

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Londovir
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 112
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Re: Best Meteorologist in Tampa [Re: Southern4sure]
      #38630 - Wed Jul 06 2005 07:20 PM

I'll give you my opinion, and if anyone disagrees, please take no offense at my opinion - to each their own!

I've been here for 10 years or so, and spent much of last year watching Directv during the 3 canes (and despite the cable company's line about satellite being "flaky", I'm sorry, but our sat went out only once for 10 minutes during Jeanne, always on for the other 2).

I like Steve Jerve (Channel 8 WFLA) the most of all the local chief mets. I think he's the most personable (he gets on Bob Hite a ton on the air), and he's fairly knowledgable. He did well last year in keeping people level-headed.

I think Paul Dellegatto (Channel 13 WTVT) is also a very good met, though for some reason I just don't feel the personality as much. I'd say it's like comparing a country doctor with a resident at County General: both know their stuff, both will take care of you, but you just somehow feel more comfy with one over the other.

And as for who I don't like -- that would be Denis Phillips (ABC 28). He always seems to have an overbearing attitude on-air, in the way he says things and how he comes across. Last year, he was adamant up until landfall practically that Charley was coming to Tampa Bay, not Punta Gorda. (I don't know if it's because ABC is an Accuweather channel or not). Personally, Linda is a better met I think than he is on ABC 28.

Oh, and of course there's Dick Fletcher on channel 10. He's the veteran (25 years+), but I don't see the personal drive from him that I see from Jerve. (IE, last year during one of them, Charley I think, Jerve was on-air pretty much the entire day that I can recall....)

--------------------
Londovir


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Brett
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 41
Loc: Miami, Florida
Track and Models [Re: Southern4sure]
      #38631 - Wed Jul 06 2005 07:22 PM

Questions, questions. I ran a 20 image loop of Dennis' visible imagery since this morning, and I too am noticing a move to the NW over the last few images. I know its early, and although it is normal for people to get concerned about each little jog and the possibility of something of this nature coming their way, but how much does each jog really effect the long term track? When will the recon data be put into the models so we can get a better picture of the output? Also, when will the models take into consideration better data from the air masses surrounding the storm that may affect its path? Sorry there are more questions than answers, but I am moving into a new house that does not yet have shutters, so this season is more of a big deal to me than others.

--------------------
South Florida


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ronnie_b
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Dennis in the Caribbean [Re: AndyG]
      #38632 - Wed Jul 06 2005 07:26 PM

Definitely a NW jog - it seems to be wobbling today since earlier this afternoon it took a westward jog - in fact, if u look at the 8 km high visible SAT and crank it to its fastest speed, you'll see the wobble all day - if it stays on this direction for more than 3 hours, its probably a slight shift in track - I will say, that some of the models (12Z canadian and 12Z MM5) indicate a more northwest movement from this point forward

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Brett
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 41
Loc: Miami, Florida
Re: Track and Models [Re: Brett]
      #38633 - Wed Jul 06 2005 07:26 PM

By the way, the 18Z GFS is out, and we all better hope that this scenario does not play out. A storm crossing near New Orleans at that angle could be just about as bad as it gets.

--------------------
South Florida


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Jeffmidtown
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 132
Loc: Atlanta, Ga
7:20pm update from Atlanta [Re: Brett]
      #38634 - Wed Jul 06 2005 07:28 PM

Unfortunately, another death can be attributed to Cindy as there has just been a fatal accident on Interstate 20 just east of downtown Atlanta. Right now there is a doppler indicated tornado heading right towards the NWS Peachtree City office/radar site. Hartsfield Jackson Airport looks to be in the cross-hairs very shortly(which is about a mile from where I live) and another big line is lining up on the Alabama/Georgia line.
Plus the NWS has extended the Tornado Watch until 2am now.

Before all you know what broke loose, the local mets were talking about Dennis and I did hear one local met draw the comparison between Dennis and Ivan...sheesh!

--------------------
You know it's a bad day.....when you wake up and see Jim Cantore and Geraldo Rivera broadcasting from your backyard....literally!

Edited by Jeffmidtown (Wed Jul 06 2005 07:33 PM)


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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: Track and Models [Re: Brett]
      #38635 - Wed Jul 06 2005 07:28 PM

Those jogs you can visualize as a raft on an ocean surface, It sometimes appears that it is really travelling and other times if you look it has not gone that far in distance. It really has to be observed over several hours in order to note a change that means anything significant in the long run. The model watchers and the satellite watchers have to remember that anything viewed through a 13 inch + screen can seem larger than life but not mean much in the outcome. The centers of growing hurricanes form and reform until the hurricane is at its maximum. Don't watch the little line watch the entire hurricane and landscape.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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Doombot!
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 160
Loc: Lakeland, Fl.
Re: Best Meteorologist in Tampa [Re: Londovir]
      #38636 - Wed Jul 06 2005 07:32 PM

Quote:

And as for who I don't like -- that would be Denis Phillips (ABC 28). He always seems to have an overbearing attitude on-air, in the way he says things and how he comes across. Last year, he was adamant up until landfall practically that Charley was coming to Tampa Bay, not Punta Gorda.




Anyone but Dennis Phillips. He's an overbearing, lecturing know-it-all that is almost always wrong.

BTW, yes on the NW thing which would be worse for Florida if this isn't a jog. And someone called for Cat IV, and I'd have to agree if it totally misses Jamaca. I wouldn't be shocked to see Cat II at 11 based on how it's been blowing up the past 3 hours.


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: Track and Models [Re: Brett]
      #38637 - Wed Jul 06 2005 07:33 PM

The storm does appear to have turned more towards the northwest, but that could partially be an artifact of the convective reorganization that has been ongoing for a few hours. The way it has redeveloped gives credence to the idea of dry air entrainment off of the coast of Hispaniola; now that it is nearer to the west side of the island, it is feeling such impacts to an increasingly less degree. The overall size of the storm does appear to have gotten a bit bigger today, giving credence to it turning a bit further north (to a simplified degree) if for no other reason.

I still do think it'll be a close call for Jamaica -- north, south, or over the island. Any scenario is likely, but I think whatever happens will even itself out in the end. A path over Havana looks pretty likely as well, though the intensity remains up for debate. Future track is where things diverge...and truth be told, I'm more willing to go with mesoscale models right now than the global models, as the former are more likely to capture the small-scale features that will play a huge role in influencing the track of Dennis more accurately. Nevertheless, other than shifts in the GFDL and, to a lesser extent, the UKMET today...most of the models have been pretty consistant in their runs throughout the day today. That doesn't bode well for predictability, because it'd be nice to see only a few of them do so and the others come closer to them instead of seeing a 300+ mile spread between the solutions in 4.5 days.

Bottom line: we still don't have much of an idea of where it is going. We will know more in a day or two, we hope, but may not be able to pin down a specific area for another 2-3 days.

More later...

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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FlaMommy
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 225
Loc: Tampa(Riverview), Florida
Re: Best Meteorologist in Tampa [Re: Doombot!]
      #38638 - Wed Jul 06 2005 07:34 PM

I REALLY COULDNT AGREE WITH YOU GUYS MORE ON Dennis....i think he sugar coats things too....its not gonna impact tampa....its not gonna impact tampa....well one of these days hes gonna say that and WHAMMMM we are gonna get hit hard.....

--------------------
"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"

Edited by FlaMommy (Wed Jul 06 2005 07:34 PM)


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Brett
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 41
Loc: Miami, Florida
Re: Track and Models [Re: Clark]
      #38639 - Wed Jul 06 2005 07:35 PM

Thanks Clark. Which models are the mesoscale models, and which ones are given the most credence, or historically perform the best? I understand the margin of error issue, and watching model trends, but I want to get better at understanding which information is the most relaible.

--------------------
South Florida


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AndyG
Weather Watcher


Reged: Mon
Posts: 35
Loc: Bradenton, FL
Re: Best Meteorologist in Tampa [Re: FlaMommy]
      #38640 - Wed Jul 06 2005 07:39 PM

As I recall, Jerve was the one that was on most of the day. He also was the first on to report that Charley had made that turn.

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nl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 207
Loc: nsb,fl
Re: Best Meteorologist in Tampa [Re: FlaMommy]
      #38641 - Wed Jul 06 2005 07:43 PM

why does it look like it has two eyes?

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Droop31
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 32
Loc: Pensacola
Re: Track and Models [Re: Brett]
      #38642 - Wed Jul 06 2005 07:43 PM

Nice post Clark. I agree with you on everything. Just wish we knew where this was going. I have a bad feeling about Dennis. Its like Deja Vu from last year. Everyone is watching and waiting here. Im not paying attention to anyone on other sites proclaiming a trend to the west or a trend to the east, its all pointless at the moment.

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