Dougyd
Verified CFHC User
Reged:
Posts: 17
Loc: Sanibel
|
|
I'm in the same boat, living on a canal on Sanibel.
I've been researching storm surges from archives and the records are awful. Many major hurricane descriptions do not mention surges at all. In other cases, they are estimates.
One of the problems is the model, weather folks use, does not take into account the direction, forward speed, quadrant hitting a specific point, etc.
During Andrew, our storm surge was supposed to be 12-18 ft. Instead, since it hit south of us, the canals and bays emptied out!
You just need to pay attention to the specific hurricane and not pay much attention to the tv weathermen.
Doug
|
FlaMommy
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 225
Loc: Tampa(Riverview), Florida
|
|
this is the exact reason i have no interest in what he has to say....id much rather listen to mets on here....thanks for all ur hard work guys..... 
--------------------
"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"
|
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1299
|
|
Thanks for the update Jason.... if Breck is "extrapolating" that will hit west of NO, as reported in his weather segment, I'm sure it has the city's attention big time.... and if nothing else, they should be getting prepared like everyone else....
|
Londovir
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 112
Loc: Lakeland, FL
|
|
You know, for what it's worth, I usually take the new generation of "power forecasting" units used by the tv channels with a grain of salt. Names like , VORTEX, and TITAN are cute and well chosen names meant to evoke certain psychological reactions in viewers, no doubt.
But, you're right about -- granted everything in modeling is merely trying to "fit a curve" to a set of input data, and as such is prone to various errors depending on the methods used. Still, last year caught the turn "first" (in terms of tv channels, not the experts on here or elsewhere), along with the pointed out accuracies with Cindy, , etc. Last night they had on our local showing the track run, and at that point (last night) it had heading towards the eastern LA border.
Merely pointing this out as an observation about models in general. It'll be interesting to watch this system and see how the various models perform, all the while hoping that no one is affected by the system. (Hey, we can wish for a miracle storm breakup, can't we?)
--------------------
Londovir
|
ronnie_b
Unregistered
|
|
The system has slowed down since yesterday - this was forecasted. The Hurricane appears to be heading between Haiti and Jamaica which all of the models have predicted (although has it shearing along the north side of the island). By no means is jamaica free & clear - the NW movement is there - the true test will be if it skirts south of most of Cuba or plows through the central part of the island - we should have a good idea where it might go in the GOM at that point (24 hours).
|
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1299
|
|
we'll have to see how all this plays out and in about 5 days we'll see which models did the best with .... as we all know, they'll shift back and forth driving us all insane.... I'm getting lazy in my old age and I just watch and see what the says... they're still the best in this business IMO
|
wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
|
|
Quote:
You know, for what it's worth, I usually take the new generation of "power forecasting" units used by the tv channels with a grain of salt. Names like , VORTEX, and TITAN are cute and well chosen names meant to evoke certain psychological reactions in viewers, no doubt.
Just for general information, is an acronym that stands for Volumetric Imaging and Processing of Integrated Radar...it was designed initally (and my work on it was) as a radar analysis tool...it has evolved into much more than that. It is a product of Baron Services, Inc, in Huntsville, AL.
--------------------
Jason Kelley
|
Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
|
|
Dennis is looking pretty impressive tonight. The convection around the center is really starting to flare up. I bet by the 11pm the winds are up higher. Just my own 2 cents worth.
--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
|
PolkBB
Verified CFHC User
Reged:
Posts: 15
|
|
I'm starting to feel a little better as there doesn't seem to be any models that suggest a NNE turn like was forecast when approached Jamaica. That should be helpful for W. Central FL.
|
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1299
|
|
I also heard it was very expensive... Jason did you get your fair share??? hehe
While I was there, yes...no residuals however...LOL...JK
Edited by wxman007 (Thu Jul 07 2005 12:40 AM)
|
KN4LF
Unregistered
|
|
#50 Published Wednesday July 06, 2005 at 6:15 pm EDT
At 6:00 pm EDT officially became a hurricane with sustained winds of 80 mph. He continues to move WNW or 295 degrees versus 290 degrees at 11:00 am EDT, at 14 mph but at times has wobbled to 305 degrees!!! During the day he has experienced a small amount of wind shear in it's western quadrants but is now primed for rapid intensification during the next 48 hours to a CAT 2-3 cyclone. I still think that at landfall will be a major CAT 3-4 cyclone.
Fortunately for the moment the official TPC track has shifted to the left a bit with a Monday afternoon 07/11/05 landfall at Mobile Bay versus Pensacola, which would make the Florida peninsula a bit safer. Unfortunately though the confidence in the future track after the 2:00 pm Friday 07/08/05 position of 21.4 deg. N and 81.4 deg. W is virtually zero, so all of the west coast of Florida from Key West to Pensacola is still under the gun. Actually Key West to Biloxi, MS right now.
Why virtually zero? Well as an example the 2:00 pm EDT today run of the model places across the southern Florida peninsula on Saturday 07/09/05. The 8:00 am EDT run of the Canadian GGEM model has running up and across the Florida peninsula into Georgia on Saturday. In the other extreme the 2:00 pm EDT run of the places landfall in SE Louisiana early Monday morning 07/11/05.
Just a reminder that just three hours before CAT 4 's landfall at Charlotte Harbor last year all of the models were placing landfall in and around Tampa Bay as a CAT 4-5 cyclone. In other words all of the models were wrong just three hours before landfall.
Bottom line? I think that the Bermuda high pressure ridge is going to weaken more than most of the models are forecasting. Right now I'm going with a landfall window a little to the right of my previous forecast to between Pensacola and Fort Walton Beach on Monday morning as a CAT 3-4.
Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Meteorologist & Space Plasma Physicist
Plant City, FL, USA
kn4lf@arrl.net
NWS Tampa Bay, FL SKYWARN Observer #HIL-249
Plant City, FL NWS CWOP Weather Station #AR692 Live Data: http://www.kn4lf.com/index1.html
Plant City, FL NWS CWOP Weather Station #AR692 3 Minute Data: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.html
Plant City, FL Daily Climatological Weather Data Archive Blog: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf22.htm
Florida Daily Weather Discussion Blog: http://www.kn4lf.com/flwx1.htm
Florida Raw Weather Forecasting Product Links: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf13.htm
Global Warming Refuted: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf42.htm
|
Clark
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 1710
Loc:
|
|
A slowing from 20mph down to 13mph, gradually over time, is more indicative of the system actually slowing down and not wobbles in the storm's path. It's reached an area where the steering currents are not as strong as they were towards the east; this motion should continue for another day or so before accelerating just slightly. However, any slowing and/or any hint of the storm becoming elongated north-south are prime indicators of a northward turn either in progress or about to occur.
Don't have time for a full update, but will leave you all with this: watch the shortwave current moving SE over central Kansas. It, coupled with the weak vortex near Dallas, are going to be the prime factors that influence to move north -- or not move north -- over the coming days. If the Kansas vortex continues to dive southward, the trough behind Cindy is going to become more amplified and likely capture before the models are predicting; the Dallas vortex may help this occur. If it begins to move towards the east, with the flow, should continue on a NW path to landfall in Louisiana. There is impetus for both scenarios to occur, but which one actually plays out remains to be seen. Right now, I would begin to believe the former rather than the latter, based off of synoptic trends and looking upstream over the northern Rockies, but there is some indication for the latter to occur as well.
The subtropical ridge is a bit weaker today than it was yesterday, though is pinched in the eastern Gulf by the remnants of Cindy's circulation. It extends to the Yucutan on its southern/southwestern extent, but only to Cedar Key, FL on the northern/northwestern side of things. These shortwaves should help keep the former in place and influence the latter; how much of this occurs will determine where the storm goes. bumping into it may play a role as well. There's still the chance of it slowing/stalling in the SE Gulf in 3-4 days, particularly if it gets caught outside of the influence of the ridge and the shortwave troughs, but I still don't consider it likely.
Do feel pretty confident, however, in saying that the & UKMET are definitely on the west side of things, and the Canadian model is on the east side of things (though it is too fast). Slight ridging appears to be building over the intermountain western U.S., which would imply slight troughing along the east coast and a more northerly track for the storm, but again -- it's all about how much of an impact it has on . I can say, though, that as long as this giant upper low sits over the Pacific northwest of Hawaii, the pattern isn't going to shift greatly for awhile. Not exactly the greatest news for down the line into the season, though it'll likely weaken/break out before too long (just off of climatological factors alone).
--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
|
MikeC
Admin
Reged:
Posts: 4544
Loc: Orlando, FL
|
|
Compare the current forecast track to two storms from last year, , and ...
Charley here is near the current position, the situation in the atmosphere differs, however. So this scenario isn't so likely.
This one is more likely, although still very different, but i thought it may be interesting to show the two vs .
|
BullitNutz
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 46
|
|
I'm in agreement on that one. Well, advisory from also projects it strengthening to a cat 2 by Thurs. The projections are still a bit wide for me to place any bets on it landing anywhere on the peninsula, and it's not really my kind of odds for it to even hit Florida at all. However, we'll have to see. I still can't find any type of map showing the air masses/currents aloft for the Gulf. If anything it would make me feel a bit better. Anyone know of a source?
|
Kevin
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
|
|
Quote:
I'm in agreement on that one. Well, advisory from also projects it strengthening to a cat 2 by Thurs. The projections are still a bit wide for me to place any bets on it landing anywhere on the peninsula, and it's not really my kind of odds for it to even hit Florida at all. However, we'll have to see. I still can't find any type of map showing the air masses/currents aloft for the Gulf. If anything it would make me feel a bit better. Anyone know of a source?
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/winds-dlm.html
This one is my favorite, but I'm not seeing maps when I load the page. Tell me if it works for you.
|
BullitNutz
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 46
|
|
Quote:
Quote:
I'm in agreement on that one. Well, advisory from also projects it strengthening to a cat 2 by Thurs. The projections are still a bit wide for me to place any bets on it landing anywhere on the peninsula, and it's not really my kind of odds for it to even hit Florida at all. However, we'll have to see. I still can't find any type of map showing the air masses/currents aloft for the Gulf. If anything it would make me feel a bit better. Anyone know of a source?
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/winds-dlm.html
This one is my favorite, but I'm not seeing maps when I load the page. Tell me if it works for you.
Thanks! Exactly what I was looking for. I saw the maps. Perhaps they were in the midst of updating their data? (Unlikely) Or maybe there was just a hiccup in the transfer. It work after a refresh or two?
|
StormSurfer
Verified CFHC User
Reged:
Posts: 11
|
|
Holy Macaroni! It looks very impressive and huge already and looks like it gonna build more. Make sure you guys have everything ready and don't wait around wondering whether it's coming to your area or not. Just be ready! Looks like the other one out in the Atlantic could be a biggie too even though its too early to tell or worry about right now with looking like it is.
|
Kevin
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
|
|
Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
I'm in agreement on that one. Well, advisory from also projects it strengthening to a cat 2 by Thurs. The projections are still a bit wide for me to place any bets on it landing anywhere on the peninsula, and it's not really my kind of odds for it to even hit Florida at all. However, we'll have to see. I still can't find any type of map showing the air masses/currents aloft for the Gulf. If anything it would make me feel a bit better. Anyone know of a source?
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/winds-dlm.html
This one is my favorite, but I'm not seeing maps when I load the page. Tell me if it works for you.
Thanks! Exactly what I was looking for. I saw the maps. Perhaps they were in the midst of updating their data? (Unlikely) Or maybe there was just a hiccup in the transfer. It work after a refresh or two?
No-it didn't work, not even after refreshing the webpage. I'll try clearing my cache now.
|
BullitNutz
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 46
|
|
Quote:
No-it didn't work, not even after refreshing the webpage. I'll try clearing my cache now.
That's probably the best idea. Cache clear, restart browser. If your problem persists, it's time for a hammer.
|
PolkBB
Verified CFHC User
Reged:
Posts: 15
|
|
Quote:
Quote:
No-it didn't work, not even after refreshing the webpage. I'll try clearing my cache now.
That's probably the best idea. Cache clear, restart browser. If your problem persists, it's time for a hammer.
Ahh, hammer, my favorite tool for computer errors 
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
