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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Kevin
Weather Master


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Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Re: Dennis Looking Better [Re: BullitNutz]
      #38688 - Thu Jul 07 2005 01:18 AM

Quote:

Quote:

No-it didn't work, not even after refreshing the webpage. I'll try clearing my cache now.




That's probably the best idea. Cache clear, restart browser. If your problem persists, it's time for a hammer.




Tried cleaning cache and restarting the browser. POS still didn't load. Here's the homepage for all of this stuff:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/tropic.html

That webpage loads for me, but when I click on any of the menu items on the left side of page, I get the hurricane looking background, but nothing else loads.

Any ideas? If not, I will got get my hammer!


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Colleen A.
Moderator


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Loc: Florida
Re: Dennis Looking Better [Re: StormSurfer]
      #38690 - Thu Jul 07 2005 01:20 AM

If that storm gets bigger...it won't matter if it's off the west coast of Florida by 100 miles...we're gonna get wet at the very least. It already looks to be the size of Texas!

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Mike S
Registered User


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Loc: Crestview, FL
Re: Dennis Looking Better [Re: BullitNutz]
      #38691 - Thu Jul 07 2005 01:21 AM

Quote:

The projections are still a bit wide for me to place any bets on it landing anywhere on the peninsula, and it's not really my kind of odds for it to even hit Florida at all.




Well I hope your right, but at least the people around here are not taking any chances after Ivan last year. The gas cans bragaids are out in force, and I imagine most of the lumber yards will be empty by friday along with the gas stations from the looks of it. I still haven't gotten all the trees out of my yard from Ivan and as wet as it has been I imagine we'll lose the rest if it comes this way again.


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Droop31
Weather Watcher


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Loc: Pensacola
Re: Dennis Looking Better [Re: Mike S]
      #38692 - Thu Jul 07 2005 01:30 AM

I must say the update you have for us on the main page Clark is excellent. You did an awesome job explaining everything that could influence Dennis. I like how you keep the door open for landfall anywhere along the eastern/central gulf. Lately it seems people are latching on to a New Orleans hit, Not that its out of the question, it certainly isnt but there are many other areas around the gulf that may have to deal with Dennis. Like I said a few days ago, Im thinking landfall will occur somewhere from Morgan City to Applachicola. I know its a large area but we are 4 to 5 days out, theres no reason to be specific right now. Watch the trends and pray we have some upwelling in the gulf from Arlene and Cindy, if not there isnt much else that will slow down Dennis. Have a good night everyone and happy tracking.

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Clark
Meteorologist


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Re: Dennis Looking Better [Re: Droop31]
      #38693 - Thu Jul 07 2005 01:39 AM

There is a little bit of upwelling and mixing in the Gulf from Cindy, but it is confined largely to the north of the Yucutan. Most of the waters north of there to the Louisiana coast are same of the warmest in the basin -- and are especially deep with that warmth -- meaning that when coupled with the relatively fast motion of the storm through to landfall, there is little signature of the storm there.

With Dennis projected to emerge north of Cuba, it is not likely to feel any of the ocean temperature impacts from Cindy. Note that Arlene was too long ago -- a month now -- for its effects to still be around. A tropical storm will only typically impact ocean temperatures for 5 or so days; stronger hurricanes can have longer-lasting impacts, but not a tropical storm.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Lysis
User


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Loc: Hong Kong
Re: Dennis Looking Better [Re: Clark]
      #38694 - Thu Jul 07 2005 01:44 AM

I am sitting on my back porch watching a bunch of guys boarding up one of my neighbors homes. ...I guess better safe than sorry, right?

--------------------
cheers

Edited by Lysis (Thu Jul 07 2005 01:45 AM)


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pcola
Storm Tracker


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Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: Dennis Looking Better [Re: Clark]
      #38695 - Thu Jul 07 2005 01:44 AM

Clark I hope you are right. It seems every hurricane that comes to this part of the gulf makes the dreaded "right turn". Opal, Erin, Ivan, Arlene, etc all seemed to turn to the north or Right as they got about 100-150 miles from land. Accuweather says it is because the water is cool here (compared to the rest of the Gulf) Tonight the Gulf Temp is 83 at Pensacola Beach.

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


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Re: Dennis Looking Better [Re: pcola]
      #38696 - Thu Jul 07 2005 01:53 AM

Quote:

Clark I hope you are right. It seems every hurricane that comes to this part of the gulf makes the dreaded "right turn". Opal, Erin, Ivan, Arlene, etc all seemed to turn to the north or Right as they got about 100-150 miles from land. Accuweather says it is because the water is cool here (compared to the rest of the Gulf) Tonight the Gulf Temp is 83 at Pensacola Beach.




And all this time, I thought it was because the upper air systems influenced the turn.


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Prospero
Storm Tracker


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Posts: 267
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Re: Dennis Looking Better [Re: pcola]
      #38697 - Thu Jul 07 2005 01:55 AM

I have a question or two.

Watching the water vapor loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html

I see a wave of sorts that starts at about 68/25 and seems to ripple north to 68/30 or so. It is subtle, but does appear to come from Dennis.

Is this a phenonemom that is common?
What effect does it have on the surrounding air masses?

--------------------
Gulfport Florida Webcam - Gulfport Florida Weather Station - Clearwater Beach Cams


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VandyBrad
Weather Hobbyist


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Loc: Bryan, TX
Re: Dennis Looking Better [Re: danielw]
      #38698 - Thu Jul 07 2005 01:56 AM

I've been out of the loop for the past several hours working on some data, but I just glanced at the forcast models to see what is going on. Am I seeing the 18Z GFDL correct? I think I see a frame that shows Dennis with Cat 5 winds just prior to landfall in Cuba. Just want to make sure I'm reading the models right. Thanks...

--------------------
Brad Shumbera


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Lysis
User


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Loc: Hong Kong
Re: Dennis Looking Better [Re: VandyBrad]
      #38699 - Thu Jul 07 2005 02:06 AM

I can't help but see a stronger northward componant, especialy in the last few frames. Perhapes my eyes are playing tricks on me, after watching about 1000 of these loops today...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html

--------------------
cheers


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ronnie_b
Unregistered




Re: Dennis Looking Better [Re: VandyBrad]
      #38700 - Thu Jul 07 2005 02:12 AM

yep, 141 knots at friday 8AM EDT just prior to landfall in west-central Cuba from the GFDL 18 Z run. That coverts to 161 mph if I've done my math correct.

Can we say that Dennis will be the brother of Camille? I know the GFDL tends to over do it, but probably a CAT 4 is not out of the realm of possibility.

Remember, that's the 18Z model. Before Dennis became a hurricane. The 00Z model will replece that in around 3 hours.

Edited by danielw (Thu Jul 07 2005 02:37 AM)


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Colleen A.
Moderator


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Re: Dennis Looking Better [Re: Lysis]
      #38701 - Thu Jul 07 2005 02:13 AM

I've been noticing that, too. If you put your finger on the first loop and watch it till the end, you can definitely see a more NW movement instead of WNW. Guess we'll know soon enough. I definitely don't think it's a jog.
Than again, I'm not a met and I don't jog.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


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Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
Re: Dennis Looking Better [Re: VandyBrad]
      #38702 - Thu Jul 07 2005 02:14 AM

If it stays on it's current track,it woud hit the middle keys.And there is some info that suggest it could be a little east of that.So South Fl. is far from being out of the woods.

--------------------

Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .


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PolkBB
Verified CFHC User


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Posts: 15
Re: Dennis Looking Better [Re: Lysis]
      #38703 - Thu Jul 07 2005 02:15 AM

Quote:

I can't help but see a stronger northward componant, especialy in the last few frames. Perhapes my eyes are playing tricks on me, after watching about 1000 of these loops today...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html




It does appear that way but it will be interesting to see how that path continues as Dennis navigates through the islands.


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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker


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Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
Re: Dennis Looking Better [Re: Lysis]
      #38704 - Thu Jul 07 2005 02:16 AM

Latest infrared is showing that Dennis is developing a strong eyewall and continues to look better organized. I have him currently moving at 305 degrees which will take him just to about the NE corner of Jamaica continuing towards the south coast of Cuba. Think Dennis will be a CAT 2 by tomorrow morning or midday at the latest.
TG


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PolkBB
Verified CFHC User


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Posts: 15
Re: Dennis Looking Better [Re: PolkBB]
      #38705 - Thu Jul 07 2005 02:17 AM

The 11PM discussion is coming soon. I wonder if the NHC will address the "apparent" NW "jog".

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Ryan
Storm Tracker


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Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
Re: Dennis Looking Better [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #38706 - Thu Jul 07 2005 02:17 AM

all i can say is watch out a Mobile, AL..your up on the plate..again

i believe you got Arlene, Cindy, and expect Dennis..sorry

-Saty safe Mobile-er's..

Ryann

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


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jth
Storm Tracker


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Posts: 275
Wishcasting or Fearcasting [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #38707 - Thu Jul 07 2005 02:17 AM

I can't make up my mind which one is going on here tonight. I have seen nothing in the loops to suggest a NW movement. There was possibly a jog earlier, but the last few frames show a jog back to the west...generally still a wnw movement. That said, it does now appear he will graze the north coast of Jamaica.

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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


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Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
Re: Dennis Looking Better [Re: Tropics Guy]
      #38708 - Thu Jul 07 2005 02:18 AM

And it has slowed once again,you all know what I think that means.

--------------------

Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .


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