Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Tampa is not out of the running for the reason that StormHunter just gave and also you're never out of the clear until it passes your lat/lon.
If the models continue a trend back towards the west in the next few runs, we should be okay, though. Just keep alert..things change fast.
The models didn't catch the door slamming shut on Jeanne's escape route until almost the very end.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Londovir
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 112
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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The is chugging through it's 0Z run right now (it's up to about 9hrs out last time I refreshed it), and it looks so far to be edging it a bit southward of where it originally had it in the 12Z run before; ie, for it's position at 77W-78W, it looks a whisper-hair farther south in the new model run as the last.
The only downside is this model takes some time to do it's run (ie, it's only just now output the 12hr data as I've typed this.)
I do note one thing: it really predicts a hammering by Cuba on the storm's power: by about 9hrs out it models pressure to rise up to around 987 and wind speeds to drop to around 62kts. That's a heck of a walloping, and I'm doubtful it's going to take that much abuse.
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Londovir
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Quote:
so would you say that tampa is pretty much out of the running for this thing??? 
No mam! Not until has passed through due west of you. In other words he has to be at least West thru NW of you to be out of the running. And on Land preferrably.
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Londovir -- much of that is related to the bogus (re: "fake" vortex) used to initialize the storm in the model. It cannot always handle such a strong storm input into the model -- this is true of any model that employs a bogus vortex -- and takes some time, usually about 12hr, to stabilize around a model solution. I wouldn't read too much into the intensity projection out of the until the model takes the storm into the Gulf.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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I am not a big model guy,just a few hours ago they had going over far west Cuba.Now it looks like central Cuba.These things change all the time.Cuba will have an impact on the motion of this storm.Just look at the models this morning and look how they have changed in just 24 hours.Let's not get caught up in this tech stuff.Look at where the warnings and watches are going up.I look at the WHOLE picture when I try to predict a storm.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator
Reged: Tue
Posts: 342
Loc: St. Cloud, FL
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Clark - hate to ask, but, the All Star game is 114 hours out right now.. based on the models, it looks like is going to go watch the game. Am I correct in assuming, based on what is out there now, Detroit could see as much as 5" of rain on Tuesday night?
*ouch*
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WeatherNLU
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 212
Loc: New Orleans, LA
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Clark.....hey man, what's up. I agree about the , it may be just an abboration but dang I wasn't expecting that jump.
Have you looked at sat lately? I was digesting some of the models and just looked back and to me, and I know it's getting past my bedtime........but.............Dennis seems to be reacting to Cuba the way I feared it might, by moving a little bit more WNW. Someone tell me if I need to go to bed......I have been looking at sats for 12 hours! 
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I survived Hurricane Katrina, but nothing I owned did!
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SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
Reged: Sun
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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I'll be there (MI) Wednesday. I'll let you know how it went...
Here is a Cuba radar shot of :
http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB...cienfuegosa.gif
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FlaMommy
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 225
Loc: Tampa(Riverview), Florida
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ok everyone please keep up all the great work and ill be back in the morning...hopefully not to be evacuated....good night and keep us posted....you are AWESOME!!!!
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"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"
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WeatherNLU
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 212
Loc: New Orleans, LA
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20.3 78.4 is what it looks like to me, and that would surely be a more westerly motion over the last three hours. 1AM should be out soon to see for sure.
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I survived Hurricane Katrina, but nothing I owned did!
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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator
Reged: Tue
Posts: 342
Loc: St. Cloud, FL
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looks like will be 24 hours short of the game, if he even makes it up there.. but, NOAA seems to want to push a lot of rainfall in the area..
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_p60_120l.gif
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Terra
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
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I may agree with you NLU... might as well wait up for it. If there is an affect, it is ever so slight... like 0.5 long, 0.4 lat over the last three hours. The strangest thing is that I find myself making the exact same comments about that I did with . The other day someone posted the superimposed tracks of the two storms, but I don't remember where. I was hoping to find it, since I hate to ask for things already posted, but I was unsuccessful, as I don't remember who posted it, when, or where it was at!
(Corrected for blatent spelling error...)
Thanks!
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Terra Dassau Cahill
Edited by Terra (Fri Jul 08 2005 01:35 AM)
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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MR. Wilson!!! *L* i think is now taking a hit from the landfall/strike it made a few hours ago.... i think there also maybe an eyewall replacement going on, or the storms around the center have been interupted pretty good in the last few hours. IR from esl may hint at riding the coast a little farther west than forcasted.... we will have to see....
IR channel 4 ESL
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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WeatherNLU
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 212
Loc: New Orleans, LA
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flaudbob.......I hope you're right, but that's a bold statement in light of the some of the models shifting, the UKMET's consistency of a LA strike and the current trend of to parallel the coast of Cuba, which could make a huge difference in the landfalling position, but hey what do I know?
I promise you this, I am not seeing things. I just stared at it for 10 minutes straight, and It's moving nearly due west in the last hour.
As much as I want to agree with you, I don't think we are out of the woods just yet. There's still enough uncertainity to include Grand Isle to the Big Bend of Florida.
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I survived Hurricane Katrina, but nothing I owned did!
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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You are correct . Since 0415Z he has moved nearly due West.
Appears and is taking place also.
When is recon due back?
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Londovir
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 112
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Looking at the radar presentation, I wouldn't be surprised if shoots for the Bay of Pigs, perhaps just north of the Island of Youth and cuts the western peninsula.
I keep thinking back to the models (and I know we've been talking about them a lot and how they change) that originally called for to go through western Cuba, and for awhile today it looked like a Cuban bisection was in the works (east to west). If the ridge built back up in time, it might be enough to depress ' northward movement and keep him back on a WNW track that would shoot the gap I mentioned above and bring him over very little land whatsoever.
Oddly enough, the back around the 12Z/0705 run took it in that general direction. Like I said, it'll be worth studying after the fact to see which models caught on to which legs of the true path for future analysis purpose.
I'm thinking, though, that we'll know about 65% certainty where is going by the 2pm advisory Friday. And I'm thinking (with nothing but a math degree to save my soul) that it's going to be a panhandle event of some sort...but I wish it would die off and fizzle, much as that won't happen.
Oh, and once again the local weather guys on TV were showing a map with supposed GOM water temps, and it was all colored in as being in the 89-91 degree range. I've been tempted to write them an email asking what their source is, since every darned buoy/ship out in the GOM is reporting nothing more than about 86 at the highest, and most around 84....
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Londovir
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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new runs are the closet yet i've seen with the strom
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_04.gif
would not want to be in pensacola sunday!
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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WeatherNLU
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 212
Loc: New Orleans, LA
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Think the is double checking a few things here? Wonder if they've noticed the more W trend and hence the lateness of the 2AM.
Or am I just missing it. Can't find the 2AM on any of my sites.
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I survived Hurricane Katrina, but nothing I owned did!
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Terra
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
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You spoke too soon.... 0.4 lat/0.9 long in last three hours... did I write something down wrong? I didn't see it as moving that much west.... But, pressure is up...
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Terra Dassau Cahill
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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NOAA2 is out there, but are nearing the end of flight if not done
haven't seen any AF flights, thinking due to Cuba airspace restrictions
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Fri Jul 08 2005 02:00 AM)
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