berserkr
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Quote:
Again I said South Florida not Miami or Ft laud.
you are still thinking this thing will make landfall in Miami?
Edited by danielw (Fri Jul 08 2005 07:07 AM)
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/index_hls4.shtml
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tornado00
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Loc: Maitland, Florida, USA
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If the storm continues to move north across Eastern Cuba, and then decides to turn north, it could put the west coast of Florida in the crosshairs. It's all a matter of timing. I would say that anything is possible with this storm, don't take your guard down. 
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Derek Sutherland
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Xavier
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I would like to know if Polk County in Florida is gonna be affected?
Xavier
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danielw
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http://www.polk-county.net/county_offices/emergency_mgmt/disaster_prep.aspx
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
337 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2005
...WINDS AND RAIN TO INCREASE LATER TODAY...
.DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST ISSUES FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS CONTINUE
TO DEPEND ON TRACK OF HURRICANE ...NOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF CUBA. SEE LASTEST ADVISORIES FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER FOR SPECIFICS ON FORECAST FOR .
FOR THE LOCAL AREA...EXPECT WINDS AND RAINFALL TO PICK UP
TODAY...AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AS
DENNIS MOVES NORTHWEST. THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR HAS THE MAIN
THRUST OF THE STORM TO THE WEST OF SOUTH FLORIDA...IN THE
SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO...THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THE CURRENT
FORECAST HAS TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS REACHING THE SOUTHWEST TIP
OF THE PENINSULA...AROUND FLAMIGO...THIS EVENING. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO IMPACT MIAMI-DADE...MAINLAND
MONROE...AND COLLIER COUNTY TONIGHT AND MOST OF THE DAY TOMORROW.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATED COASTLINE IN
THESE AREAS.
full text available on Main Page.
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geekicane
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If anyone with knowledge is still awake out there I have a couple of questions: What is the topology of the cross section of cuba that is likely to transverse; and what information do we have about how such crossings effect the intensity of cyclones. I know land weakens a hurricane period, but how do the models take into account various factors such as mountains vs. flat plains etc.?
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danielw
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Here is a link to a relief Map of Cuba.
http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/americas/cuba_rel94.jpg
As far as the models go. They look more at the upper air features, than the surface features.
However, looking at the maps. The are some high ridges in Cuba. Sierra Maestra Mountain Range in the east, rising to 6,560 ft (2,000 m). Better than 3000ft in Southern Cuba. And 1000ft in the Havana area. I would think that they could certainly influence ' wind flows.
Edited by danielw (Fri Jul 08 2005 08:28 AM)
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
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Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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I see moving WNW- Is JB correct that it may make landfall in western Cuba?
I do respect his assertions= perhaps we should consider his forecast with a bit more credibility . 
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________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
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Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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I'm beginning to believe that will not DIRECTLY impact West Florida, either!
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________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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danielw
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HURRICANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI JUL 08 2005
THE EYE BECAME A LITTLE DISRUPTED A FEW HOURS AGO WHEN THE HURRICANE CROSSED NEAR CABO CRUZ CUBA. SINCE THEN...DENNIS HAS BEEN MOVING OVER THE SHALLOW WARM WATERS SOUTH OF CAMAGUEY CUBA OVER A GROUP OF SMALL ISLANDS NAMED...ARCHIPIELAGO DE LA REINA...AND THE EYE HAS
BECOME BETTER DEFINED SURROUNDED BY A RING OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION.
A NOAA PLANE JUST CHECKED THE HURRICANE AND MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 950 MB AND SURFACE WINDS OF 113 KNOTS WITH THE STEPPED
FREQUENCY RADIOMETER(SFMR). INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 115 KNOTS...A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THE EYE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER VERY WARM WATER FOR
ABOUT 12 MORE HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL IN CUBA...SO ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE. SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING MAY OCCUR OVER CUBA BUT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE WHILE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS SUGGESTED BY MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE FIXES INDICATE THAT HAS BEEN MOVING BETWEN 305 AND 310 DEGREES AT ABOUT 13 TO 14 KNOTS DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE POWERFULL HURRICANE WILL BE CROSSING CENTRAL/WESTERN CUBA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND THEN ONCE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...IT IS FORECAST TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT WESTWARD DURING THE FIRST 12 TO 24 HOURS..BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE A REFLECTION OF THE INITIAL MOTION. THEREAFTER...TRACK MODELS CONSISTENTLY TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST. THE UK MODEL CONTINUES TO BE THE FARTHER WEST AND THE THE FARTHER EAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES IN THE MIDDLE OF THESE MODELS AND FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS.
Full Discussion is available on the Main Page
Edited by danielw (Fri Jul 08 2005 08:49 AM)
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danielw
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Please consult your local NWS office for local statements, Watches and Warnings.
New Orleans/ Slidell, LA
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lix
Mobile,AL
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mob
Tallahassee, FL
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tae
Tampa, FL
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tbw
Jacksonville, FL
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jax
Melbourne,FL
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb
Miami, FL
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl
Key West, FL
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/eyw
NWS Southern Region Headquarters
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/
clickable links to all NWS Offices.
Most of the current Watches, Statements and Warnings are available on the Main, or front page.
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berserkr
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yeppers, heading towards the border of AL/FL just like they forecasted DAYS ago.
edited to remove personal remarks.
Edited by danielw (Fri Jul 08 2005 09:16 AM)
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Terra
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Kingwood, Texas
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Argh... it didn't post and ate the entire thing... Take 2...
The more westerly motion at 5AM continues, with a change of 0.4N, 0.6W over the last three hours.... This has been the case, to some extent, all night.... Nine hours does not a wobble make....but, let's look over the last 12 hours, from 5PM-5AM, 1.7N, 2.5W... even the discussion agrees:
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT WESTWARD DURING THE FIRST
12 TO 24 HOURS..BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE A REFLECTION OF THE INITIAL
MOTION. THEREAFTER...TRACK MODELS CONSISTENTLY TURN MORE TO
THE NORTHWEST.
Think about it... Not to personify the storm, but knows that if he crosses Cuba, he will weaken... Perhaps he's just not ready to do that right and and would prefer to skirt the coast a while longer.... It's just like with ... when does it make the turn?
So, let's stop talking about who is right and who is wrong and focus on what this storm is doing and where it's going!
Thank you so very much!~danielw
Edited by danielw (Fri Jul 08 2005 09:21 AM)
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geekicane
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Vis a vis the new advisory and my previous question about how cuba will effect the intensity of . I find it puzzling that the most recent discussion says that the transverse will only weaken him 'slightly" and that will emerge in the gulf as a cat 4 storm. I would think that the cuba landfall would have a much more significant impact on the storm's intensity--dropping the central pressure at least by 20mb which would usually suggest wind speeds in the cat 2 range. Any help out there for my confusion?
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berserkr
Verified CFHC User
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wow the eye is really starting to take shape and look impressive on the last frame of the latest IR loop, really starting to get nice, tight and compact:
0815 UTC frame
0845 UTC frame
last 12 frames - LOOPED
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danielw
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The FL DOT traffic flow website has continuosly shown, since 7 PM last night, above historical levels of traffic headed Westbound out of FL at the Alabama State Line.
Clickable Statewide Map of FLorida Traffic flows.
The Yellow Links are the active hourly counters.
http://www3.dot.state.fl.us/trafficinformation/
If you are in an Evacuation Zone and plan on evacuating. Please don't wait until the weather conditions and or road conditions become too severe to leave.
Start your Planning Now. Reports from members last night indicate fuel stops have long lines, and were inflating prices.
Prices here in SE Mississippi jumped over 20 cents at some stations yesterday during a 12 hour period.
This post will be copied to the Disaster Forum for reference.
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Terra
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Kingwood, Texas
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It all depends on where it crosses Cuba... I haven't seen the new 5AM map, but if it crosses at a 'fatter' place, there will be more reduction in intensity than if it passes nearer the tip. But, the thing about interactions with land, is that intensity reductions are more caused by a reduction of the latent heat of condensation, more so than friction. So, while the mountainous area may have more of a frictional effect than flat land, that's not the overriding factor. If it crosses back quickly into warm water, the loss of latent heat will be minimized and it can restrenghten.
Ok, now I've looked at the 5AM map... not much of a shift, just to the extreme west tip of FL (i.e. the FL/AL border)... not much change over Cuba, it appears. Strange.... you'd think they would have shifted the Cuba part more and not the FL part based on the discussion.
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Terra Dassau Cahill
Edited by Terra (Fri Jul 08 2005 09:28 AM)
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
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Posts: 443
Loc: Longwood, FL
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I was under the understanding, from being a member on this board and from learning of past hurricane interactions with land, that mountainous terrain does have a signficant impact on the structure of a hurricane. By skirting the more mountainous terrain in eastern Cuba, will not lose the punch it has by traversing the more flat terrain of western Cuba. I agree that the primary factor that land has with a hurricane is the loss of its source of "fuel" (the warm waters), but the terrain certainly does play a more significant role than just an insignificant factor.
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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Trying to watch the moisture flow off the north coast of Cuba where is expectedto emerge into the GOM and the strength of the ridge...right now the flowseems to be more NNW than NW,,,in the earlier frames it was NW but over the last several hours itseems to have developed a consistent NNW presentation.
this is something to watch for future trac considerations. If true and follows that flow the panhandle east of PC Beach is the target area
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doug
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