Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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I have another question (even tho my first about SST didn't get answered yet...). Wouldn't it be worse, not better, for Havana for the eye to pass just to the east? Even if west of the eye is not as strong as the east, if the eye is passing close enough, and there are strong winds all around the eye, then could the north winds create more of a problem with water, since the coastline is on the north, not the south? Or is storm surge not an issue in this case since the storm came from the south over land?
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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MarcoResi
Weather Watcher
Reged: Fri
Posts: 33
Loc:
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its starting to rain hard here in marco, no winds yet but the rain is horrendous........... hold on to ya hat those in N gulf coast  
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pcola
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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Local news here in Pc gave a 8pm Cen (9 eastern) advisory with winds at 115mph....they get updates every 30 minutes
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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That sounds like a good direction to go in to me(115mph) ( hope thats not knots.)Everyone on the northern coast get out your oscillating fans and blow that cane someplace where they can use the rain.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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MarcoResi
Weather Watcher
Reged: Fri
Posts: 33
Loc:
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The biggest problem foe SW fl is gonna be the rain with 3 to 6 inches predicted, Collier County is allready saturated! Any 1 in key west to give update?
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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
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Quote:
Holy Moly! Those are way too close for comfort! Thanks for sharing...... what do you guys make of it???
It's a little disconcerting. Clark alluded to this possible track yesterday - taking the storm closer to the west coast on more of a northerly heading (rather than NNW or NW). The models have been flip-flopping a little east or west so we'll need to really check out next runs.
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RJB
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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hmmm 9 p.m. northwest at 14, is he slowing down?
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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
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Also the slim chance Clark alluded to of a stall or loss of steering currents after enters the SE Gulf is interesting. I wonder, given the way has ambled through Cuba tonight, if this is still a possibility.
Edited by Big Red Machine (Fri Jul 08 2005 09:11 PM)
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MarcoResi
Weather Watcher
Reged: Fri
Posts: 33
Loc:
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Quote:
hmmm 9 p.m. northwest at 14, is he slowing down?
if he is slowin will that weaken him or is that bad news for when he gets out over open water?
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sun
Posts: 366
Loc: USA
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hopefully. Key west is reporting wind from E at 39mph gusting to 47mph pressure down to 1006mb Key West Weather link
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pcola
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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Dennis speed has been between 12 and 17 for the last 2 days..probably no big deal,,,
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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Did I just hear Seidel say Ala Gov issued Man Evac????????
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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StormHound
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 187
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Marco, the main problem with slowing is that it causes havoc with forecast tracks. The faster he gets to where he's going, the less the environment around him changes. If he's moving slower, you have to wait until some feature convinces him to move one way or the other and that gets dicey, ala last year. Slower will let him strengthen more, but if he sits in the same spot for a while, he will cool the water down and eventually start to weaken. So, in the long run, he's probably a Cat 3 for most of his Gulf visit regardless. Slowdowns are bad for forecasting.
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Storm Hound
Computer Geek
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pcola
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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Yes, you heard it correct..that would be in Baldwin County on the FL border, for everything south of I10. Problem is I10 is 30 miles north of the coast in Baldwin County.
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
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Did anyone see Flamingos recent winds SE 36, G 61!
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RJB
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MarcoResi
Weather Watcher
Reged: Fri
Posts: 33
Loc:
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I just hope that easten high stays there, i ant put any shutters up. 
just looked at key west weather seems a bit calm 
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Kevin
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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This evening's and runs are pretty interesting. The moreso than the . I'm looking carefully at that run, and it wants to take the storm NNW from h 18-30, and then turn it more NW. That takes the storm much closer to the West Coast of Florida than the previous run. To be honest, though, I can't really justify picking one model over another this evening. Watching is simply the best thing that the public can do. Even if the 18Z track does occur, the 's error cone seems to cover this possibility.
The storm has slowed slightly. I guess we are just being given a few more things to look at.
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sun
Posts: 366
Loc: USA
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here a florida bouy link. storm link at the top. sand key is reporting winds at 42kts(48mph) bouy reports (florida)
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MarcoResi
Weather Watcher
Reged: Fri
Posts: 33
Loc:
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Check this link and slow it down, you can clearly see him moving more wnw than nw!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-vis-loop.html
Edited by MarcoResi (Fri Jul 08 2005 09:25 PM)
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Kevin
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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I've been reviewing the long range Key West radar, and it is amazing to me how little northward progress has made. If you freeze the frames in between and oscillate between the first and last frame, you will notice that is moving with a true WNW motion right now. And to my bare eye, the storm also seems to be slowing.
EDIT: Key West radar link:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kbyx.shtml
Edited by Kevin (Fri Jul 08 2005 09:27 PM)
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