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Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued for area in the East-Central Atlantic, only with 10% chance for development, not expected to do much.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 239 (Idalia) , Major: 239 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 239 (Idalia) Major: 239 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Storm Cooper
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Re: Special NHC Advisory... [Re: Frank P]
      #41074 - Sun Jul 10 2005 12:00 AM

Agreed! My IR sat looks to be a N mvt. and longer that a wobble.

JK just now metioned the north motion being possible so it may be so.

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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1

Edited by Storm Cooper (Sun Jul 10 2005 12:02 AM)


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hurricane_run
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Re: Special NHC Advisory... [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #41075 - Sun Jul 10 2005 12:02 AM

that isjust what i was thinking... ?this is a long wobble?

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Frank P
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Re: Special NHC Advisory... [Re: hurricane_run]
      #41076 - Sun Jul 10 2005 12:04 AM

I just looked at the water vapor loop... I agree with you guys, looks like a definite move north... lets see if it continues...

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MichaelA
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Re: Special NHC Advisory... [Re: Frank P]
      #41077 - Sun Jul 10 2005 12:06 AM

Last frame of the radar loop shows a NW movement again.

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Michael

PWS


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pcola
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Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: Special NHC Advisory... [Re: Frank P]
      #41078 - Sun Jul 10 2005 12:07 AM

It looks like Dennis is taking steps.. Ivan did this..but from the other direction..looks like he is still pretty close to the NHC track

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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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BillD
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Re: Special NHC Advisory... [Re: Frank P]
      #41079 - Sun Jul 10 2005 12:07 AM

The 8:00 PM Position is 26.2 N 85.0 W, 7:00 PM was 26.1 N 84.9 W.

Update: I thought I should include the actual statement, since the NHC is using the same tool we are (radar) to make this determination!

AT 7 PM CDT...0000Z...DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM KEY WEST AND TAMPA
INDICATE THE EYE OF HURRICANE Dennis WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE
26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.0 WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 280 MILES SOUTH
OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA AND ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BILOXI
MISSISSIPPI.

FORECASTER BEVEN

Bill

Edited by BillD (Sun Jul 10 2005 12:13 AM)


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CentralFlorida
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Re: Special NHC Advisory... [Re: Frank P]
      #41080 - Sun Jul 10 2005 12:09 AM

I agree with the north movement was just watching the local tampa doppler radar. http://www.baynews9.com/StateDoppler.html

now looks like back to nw movement

--------------------
Survived Charley, Jeanne, Frances, Ivan and my Wife


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WeatherNLU
Meteorologist


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Re: Special NHC Advisory... [Re: BillD]
      #41081 - Sun Jul 10 2005 12:11 AM

It's defintely moving more north, but it cannot be considered more than a wobble at this point. When it moved west for 9 hours over Cuba it was a wobble and everyone disputed the westward movement. Now it moves north for 30 minutes and it's a definitive movement??

It's surely trending more north, but will it hold......that's the question.

--------------------
I survived Hurricane Katrina, but nothing I owned did!


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Allison
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Re: Special NHC Advisory... [Re: Clark]
      #41082 - Sun Jul 10 2005 12:11 AM

Quote:

stormchazer -- probably just a sign of the differentiation between the well-defined core of the storm and an outer convective band and not a sign of dry air entrainment. I could be wrong, but I don't believe that there is dry air becoming entrained into the storm.




The last few frames of the WV loop shows dry air building in the Bay of Campeche. But you're right, it doesn't appear to be affecting Dennis at this time.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html

Allison

Edited by Allison (Sun Jul 10 2005 12:13 AM)


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G. J.
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Re: Special NHC Advisory... [Re: pcola]
      #41083 - Sun Jul 10 2005 12:12 AM

What is crazy to me, is that this monster is just SW of Tampa. I know it's not going to come my way, but damn if it did it would absolutely cause pandamonium on a scale never seen before. It's soo close to me right now, and no harm (yet), but it will be reaking havok on someone far away in 24 hours. Crazy.

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Frank P
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Re: Special NHC Advisory... [Re: pcola]
      #41084 - Sun Jul 10 2005 12:14 AM

If he is wobbling between N and NW then it averages out to be NNW, which is basically what the NHC has forecasted.... we are looking at this system very hard tonight... my evacuation plan will be to leave early in the am before 5:00 am and ride out the storm at the MS Power Plant, where my wife works... but only if it deviates any at all from the NHC forecast track to the west... there will be no sleep tonight I'm pretty sure... worse case scenario would be for Dennis to hit to our west, which would probably put a surge of 15-18 feet along the MS Coast... I'm 20 feet above sea level on the beach... not a very pleasent thought.... my prayers and thoughts go out to the poor unfortunate people of the Panhandle and the Al coast... tomorrow will be an historic weather event

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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


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Re: Special NHC Advisory... [Re: BillD]
      #41085 - Sun Jul 10 2005 12:15 AM

Incredible transformation last few hours http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellit...&duration=0

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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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EaglezFan42
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Re: Special NHC Advisory... [Re: G. J.]
      #41086 - Sun Jul 10 2005 12:15 AM

agreed G.J.

it almost seems surreal.


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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker


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Loc: USA
Pressure Drop [Re: Frank P]
      #41087 - Sun Jul 10 2005 12:15 AM

Minimum Pressure: 942 Millibars (27.816 Inches) pressure down i think this will qualify as expolsive deepening

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Storm Cooper
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Re: Special NHC Advisory... [Re: Frank P]
      #41088 - Sun Jul 10 2005 12:16 AM

I know a few here who won't sleep much

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker


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Loc: Port Orange, FL
Re: Special NHC Advisory... [Re: Frank P]
      #41089 - Sun Jul 10 2005 12:16 AM

hurricane hunters say pressure has dropped another 5mb

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Frank P
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Re: Special NHC Advisory... [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #41090 - Sun Jul 10 2005 12:18 AM

Storm, you are definitely in harms way Buddy...

good luck


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Littlebit
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Re: Special NHC Advisory... [Re: G. J.]
      #41091 - Sun Jul 10 2005 12:20 AM

I agree also G.J. I'm in Plant City and it's very scary to see this monster so close on the radar. We've had some pretty good feeder bands through here with some major wind gusts. A few branches down, but that's it so far. Can't wait until it gets past us. My thoughts and prayers go out to all in Dennis' path. Stay safe everyone!

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sprghill
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Re: Special NHC Advisory... [Re: Littlebit]
      #41093 - Sun Jul 10 2005 12:22 AM

is there anyway this could make a hard right and go for tampa

Edited by danielw (Sun Jul 10 2005 12:34 AM)


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stormchazer
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Re: Special NHC Advisory... [Re: sprghill]
      #41094 - Sun Jul 10 2005 12:25 AM

Could if conditions were right. Conditions are not right! It could pass a little closer then forecast but is going North so relax....but be attentive!

--------------------
Jara

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