Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Lysis, that's an excellent analogy. Hurricanes are generally thought of as heat engines -- in fact, we think of them as Carnot cycles (of energy/heat); that's where all of the theory behind the last descriptive post came from -- although not perfect ones (we generally see an efficiency of about 33% with most tropical systems). It's still got some energy left over as it makes landfall, but afterward, it really is just running on fumes. The circulation begins to decay; if conditions are right, it may become and redevelop that way (probably not going to see that here); and the engine eventually stops as a tropical cyclone. cyclones are a whole 'norther story, one I'll leave for another day, but the analogy definitely holds for a tropical cyclone.
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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Just after the previous post, checked the site and 05LNoname is listed there, so I guess advisories will be issued on TD5 at 11, as Max Mayfield said.
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BillD
User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
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I agree about , I was thinking the worst (the strengthening almost to cat5 South of Cuba) and hoping for the best, and the best did happen.
I see that they are in the process of shifting 98L over to 05LNONAME on the NRL website . We might hear something about this in the 11:00 PM Discussion, once the gets a very short break after .
August in July, this makes me really concerned about what August will bring...
Bill
Edited by BillD (Sun Jul 10 2005 09:38 PM)
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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August in July- then won't July be in August? A little pun never hurt anyone.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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drcrazibob
Weather Watcher
Reged: Mon
Posts: 30
Loc: Daytona Beach, Fl
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I think I'm starting to get really bugged by these Reporters on the Networks. They all make the scariest Alerts, and most of the people that it's important for can't see them anyway because they have no power!!!! I know you all have sat in the eyes of plenty of hurricanes and can relate with what I'm talking about.
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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At the rate we are going we will have November by September and will be wearing fur liners on our swimsuits!
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
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Clark, do eyewall replacement cycles occur on a regular basis, and if so, how often? Also, is the anticipated occurence of an eyewall replacement cycle taken into account when forecasting a hurricane's intensity at landfall (as at a certain point of the cycle, such as when hit Cuba, the cyclone is at a much higher intensity, than the point in the cycle that was at when he hit today).
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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Max also saying he is pretty sure that the name will be retired, just in case people were wondering.
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DebbiePSL
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 151
Loc: Saint Marys Georgia
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Maybe the season will end early since it started early
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Here's a rundown on EWRC's
http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=22268&an=0&page=0#22268
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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ohioaninmiss
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 32
Loc: Columbus, OH
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Quote:
August in July, this makes me really concerned about what August will bring...
From Dr. Jeff Masters over at Wunderground on his July 5th Blog:
Dr. Chris Landsea notes in his excellent Hurricane FAQ that "the overall number of named storms (hurricanes) occurring in June and July (JJ) correlates at an insignificant r = +0.13 (+0.02) versus the whole season activity. In fact, there is a slight negative relationship between early season storms (hurricanes) versus late season (August through November) r = -0.28 (-0.35). Thus, the overall early season activity, be it very active or quite calm, has little bearing on the season as a whole.
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Marie
Back in Ohio from a crazy summer in Mississippi!
Edited by ohioaninmiss (Sun Jul 10 2005 09:54 PM)
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SeeSaw99
Registered User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 9
Loc: Tempe, AZ
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I am certainly an amateur when it comes to hurricanes, but I've heard a few people here mention that hurricanes can "sap" the strength of the warm ocean water they cross by causing an upwelling of deeper, cooler water. Is there any way that a series of strong storms/hurricanes early in the season moving across the same general Cape Verde track could hinder the development of later storms? Or is the overall effect on the ocean not this prominent?
This may be somewhat of an ignorant question, but just trying to understand what happens in the water after a particular storm moves on.
Great site, by the way. The knowledge here really is incredible.
Thanks.
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Heather
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Tue
Posts: 91
Loc: Sebring, FL
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If the whole season is this active, our prediction numbers are going to be way off! My eyes are already crossing from all this "bear watching". 
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When it rains, it pours...
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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
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Nice ball of convection developing over the center of TD # 5, shear is initially low ahead of it, so it should develop rather rapidly as it heads for the windward or leeward islands in a couple of days.
TG
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Big Red Machine, eyewall replacement cycles occur on a somewhat unpredictable basis -- we know that they occur, usually with some advance warning in the form of a secondary outer eyewall (whether observed by plane, satellite, or radar), but they can occur anywhere from every 12 or so hours to every 2 or so days, often time changing up in the middle of the game. They are most frequent with major hurricanes, though can be observed in weaker storms as well. There is still a lot that we don't know about them, however, and work is ongoing to develop a set of storms that underwent such cycles for future study towards improving our knowledge of them.
They oftentimes will mention eyewall replacement cycles in the discussions for such storms, but usually will only make minor modifications to the intensity forecast as a result of them if they think one is ongoing or about to occur. This is partially due to their unpredictable nature, such as how long it will last or where it will occur, as well as their nature in generally being temporary features leading to some reintensification afterward and the distance between intensity steps (12hr in the short term) in advisories. For instance, I seem to recall an advisory on calling for a wekening to 115kt in 12hr from an initial intensity of 120kt, then back to 120kt 12hr later. That's about as far as they will go, though, given the current science and the need to stay towards the middle ground for the general public.
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Yes it does hinder development of future systems passing over, but also depends on the intensity of the system. Water is usually only heated to a certain depth- 30 meter's is usually the average for warm water 27 C and up, as you go down in temperature a more consistent temperature can be maintained. When weak disturbances pass over not much water is turned /upwelled, such as near Cape Verde; but once you get into major hurricanes region's (in the central atlantic and Gulf) significant upwelling can occur to such a point that it can hinder development of future systems. Hope that helps!.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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BillD
User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
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I agree with you 100%. I could go on and on about this (and have in past years) but there are only a handul of competent TV weather people, the rest have no common sense and do and say stupid and dangerous things. It is too bad we don't have more like Bryan Norcross, who saved countless lives in Andrew with his non stop litany of how to stay safe when your roof blew off and your windows blew in, as this was actually happening across South Dade all night long. And mets like Jason Kelley, who tells it like it is. But the [many bad words I can't say or my post will be deleted] "reporters" on CNN, MSNBC, FOX, and , not to mention the morons at the local stations, shouldn't be allowed to say what they say. They put people's lives in danger, and all to make money for their stations. To me this is something that the FCC should regulate, not whether someone said the S-word in a movie. These morons could cost people their lives because they don't know what they are saying, and are trying to be sensational in how they say it.
I've said too much already....
Update, just to clarify, those that I am complaining about are not mets (with one or two exceptions), they are just reporters or commentators that think they know it all.
Bill
Edited by BillD (Sun Jul 10 2005 10:04 PM)
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AMK
Unregistered
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I like tropical activity (landfalls and destruction are a far different matter) but this is getting ridiculous. 5 systems by early July. I wonder where the new system will go
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h2ocean
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 91
Loc: South Merritt Island, FL
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Here we go again...model output on soon to be TD #5...
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_05.gif
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Merritt Island, FL Home Weather Station
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Hi SeeSaw,
The effect on the ocean depends upon the oceanic temperature profile with depth as well as the strength of each storm. A hurricane can churn up the waters sufficiently to have a 8-10 day recovery period. Tropical storms and depressions have a weaker impact, largely due to the weaker winds (it is the winds of a storm that draw the energy and moisture from the sea surface & underlying waters) and weaker transport mechanisms for the energy found within these storms. Major hurricanes likely have a larger impact, with category 4 torms having been shown to churn up the waters all the way down to 200ft. Usually, the cooler waters below the surface get warmed up, while the near-surface waters cool down -- this suggests mixing going on within the ocean.
If a series of storms were to pass by in close succession, the waters could be affected enough to temporarily keep other storms in check, but the recovery period and fact that storms usually don't occur in rapid succession suggest that any such impact will be minimal and most likely to impact a single storm, usually closer to the US in the Gulf, Caribbean, or W. Atlantic. Ironically, these are also where the water is warmer to deeper levels ni the ocean, mitigating those impacts. But, a good case is Isabel in 2003 -- as it passed over the waters that Fabian had churned up just a week prior, the storm rapidly began its weakening process, as the master's work of one of my friends has shown.
Do note that the waters off of tge coast of Africa are generally warm only near the top, due to the cool Canary current running through the area, but that since storms are generally pretty weak out there, any such impacts are usually quickly relieved.
So, in summary, it's possible -- and has happened before -- but not too likely.
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