ralphfl
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
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I will say one thing i have always used is the WC extended forcast for my area.
Believe it or not they had pegged 5 days beforehand as they had us having the storms sat and sunday way back on monday.
Right now they have for my area 30% pops on monday and tuesday and then sunny and no rain on wednesday which tells me they think its going to the east coast.
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cjzydeco
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 120
Loc: Sebastian, FL
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Isn't there some box (created by a specific Lat and Lon) that old-time forcasters say if a long-tracking storm passes through the box it will hit S. Florida and if it passes south of the box it will be a GOM storm? Or something like that.... It's just a hazy recollection of something I read or heard once.
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Lat/Lon: 27.8, -80.5
Frances '04, Jeanne '04, Wilma '05, Ernesto '06, Faye '08
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richisurfs
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 104
Loc: Indialantic,Florida
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Look real closely at their 5 day forecast track map...are you telling me that it doesnt look like it could go into the GOM just as easily as anywhere else at this point? And in their discussion was there one mention of it turning up into south Florida at this point? With all due respect, I'm just not seeing what you're seeing there.
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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
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http://www.hurricanecity.com/hebertbox.htm
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Hurricane Fredrick 1979
Weather Guru
Reged: Sat
Posts: 116
Loc: Mobile,Alabama
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I don't know about Emily but I have a gut feeling about Franklin that it's going to be a MAJOR event in the GOM. If the High weakens as they say when it get's to S FL. then look out again NGOM. And this is my predictiment not the .
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00cj
Weather Watcher
Reged: Mon
Posts: 26
Loc: Panama City Beach, F.L.
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couldnt the storm be a south florida and GOM event.........if you extend the line of the track it would be both.
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cjzydeco
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 120
Loc: Sebastian, FL
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Yes, Andrew did that.
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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I am going by the thin black line in the five day.I know that is what they say not to do,But they were so good with .And if you go by the "box"than it would not be a GOM event.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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00cj
Weather Watcher
Reged: Mon
Posts: 26
Loc: Panama City Beach, F.L.
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at what point can you tell if its a big storm like francis or a small storm like . emily looks fairl small at this point.
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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
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yes... bob... it would still be a GOM storm. the storm would not hit s. florida and dissipate... it would continue on west into.... the gulf of mexico . There is no northerly recurvature currently forecast (though much can change). I would hold off on the "GOM is okay" predictions bob. That is simply not the case.
Edited by Big Red Machine (Tue Jul 12 2005 12:59 AM)
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00cj
Weather Watcher
Reged: Mon
Posts: 26
Loc: Panama City Beach, F.L.
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francis went through "the box" but crossed florida and briefly entered the GOM and made a second landfall in the big bend area
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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Quote:
yes... bob... it would still be a GOM storm. the storm would not hit s. florida and dissipate... it would continue on west into.... the gulf of mexico . There is no northerly recurvature currently forecast (though much can change). I would hold off on the "GOM is okay" predictions bob. That is simply not the case.
Yes I agree,I stand corrected,It could cross over Florida and enter the GOM.Also this from the :The initial motion estimate is 280/11. Due to the re-development of the low-level center farther north into the deeper convection...the forecast track had to be shifted more to the north...or right...of the previous forecast.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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cjzydeco
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 120
Loc: Sebastian, FL
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Really? I never knew that. My power was out for so long after Francis and then I got so involved preparing for Jeanne and then lost power angain for Jeane that I never saw where she ended up.
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richisurfs
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 104
Loc: Indialantic,Florida
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Exactly...no recurvature is shown with that thin black line in the forecast at this point
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00cj
Weather Watcher
Reged: Mon
Posts: 26
Loc: Panama City Beach, F.L.
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yeah. if i would have spelt the name right it will show her track when you put your mouse over it....
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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Quote:
Exactly...no recurvature is shown with that thin black line in the forecast at this point
Recurvature???It is showing a slow turn towards the NW.It has not curved anywhere yet.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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BullitNutz
Weather Watcher
Reged: Wed
Posts: 46
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"She looks like an Emily. Disorganized blonde..."
"Emily looks so pretty going this way.. yayyyy"
Gotta give it to my mom, she knows how to make weather events seem funny.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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Well looks like the models show this might not hit florida in the long run. Looks like a carribean and Yucitan storm........do I think that? Too early.
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richisurfs
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 104
Loc: Indialantic,Florida
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You are saying it does not show that it is going to be a storm that goes into the GOM right? I'm just trying to say that you have it showing some scenario where it is curving more to the NW and heading into south Florida and im trying to tell you that the 5 day extended forecast, while it does show a NW turn, does not show it heading up into south Florida At this point it could go either way...thats all I'm trying to say.
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BullitNutz
Weather Watcher
Reged: Wed
Posts: 46
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I was thinking the same thing, the curve of the projection looks too open, but now the NWS is projecting it to go through Haiti, so it might go like Jeanne, weaken, wobble north, loop, and plow into FL. It probably won't loop, but Haiti may weaken it to the point where it just wobbles N a bit, then it regains Westward momentum when it strengthens
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