stormchazer
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida
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So much for Tropical Graveyard....unless Emily is the "Living Dead".
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Jara
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HCW
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
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Emily on radar
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antilles/pack-public/MOSAIQUE/200507140000-Mosaique.gif
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jr928
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 101
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but even so, except for the wildcard model (which also missed by a long shot) , they still have it heading across yucatan and hitting mex as TS, what am I missing?
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Quote:
Quote:
Pressure was the 2nd lowest recorded ever (1935 hurricane the other): several miles to the right of the eye, 909mb, in Bay St. Louis.
I could've sworn that Gilbert was the lowest-ever recorded pressure (888mb)...
Or are we talking about lowest at landfall?
At landfall...recon measured 905mb.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
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Quote:
Quote:
I wonder what the is going to strengthen it to...in terms of mph.
AT 14/0108Z...908 PM AST...A UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT MEASURED PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 79 KTS...WHICH
CORRESPONDS TO ABOUT 63 KT...OR 73 MPH...AT THE SURFACE....WHICH IS
ON THE THRESHOLD OF HURRICANE FORCE. ADDITIONALLY...ADJUSTMENT OF
A DROPSONDE WIND PROFILE TO THE SURFACE INDICATES SURFACE WINDS OF
ABOUT 80 KT...OR ABOUT 92 MPH. THIS INTENSITY INCREASE WILL BE
REFLECTED IN THE ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED BY 11 PM AST...0300Z.
I know but I was wondering if they were going to compromise between flight level and drop sonde. I guess not.
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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jr928
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 101
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how long before joe bastardi at Accuweather predicts catastrophe for new orleans? he usually does this when they get within 6 days
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
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Is it just me or does emily seem to be heading at a NNW direction at the moment? At least for a wobble?
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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javlin
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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Just wait JR I think it will come in the 24-36hrs just due in part stonger system and the coriolis(sp) effect.The only thing to stop it will be the ridge of course but if a weakness shows up then we have something else.I am still not sold on a NGOM solution by far a more WGOM I think.The CA and MEX only I think is out now.
We do not talk JB via the Coop.
Edited by javlin (Wed Jul 13 2005 10:25 PM)
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jr928
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 101
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if I were the leader in jamaica, I would have jim cantore come and broadcast from the center of my island, thus sparing the country.
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jr928
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 101
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I'll give it a day but wouldn't err that much huh? or would they claim the cone rule.
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
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Quote:
if I were the leader in jamaica, I would have jim cantore come and broadcast from the center of my island, thus sparing the country.
Jim Cantore is not who you want broadcasting from your area during Hurricane season.
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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javlin
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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My thoughts are still in the cone personally just to the N side of the cone.
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h2ocean
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 91
Loc: South Merritt Island, FL
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Quote:
how long before joe bastardi at Accuweather predicts catastrophe for new orleans? he usually does this when they get within 6 days
Hope he doesn't see this,  ....12z UKMET...click FWD
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.cg...;hour=Animation
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Merritt Island, FL Home Weather Station
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javlin
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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Actually Canetracker he was like insurance that you were not going to get hit till showed up.
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nl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 207
Loc: nsb,fl
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anyone have a link too the boxes that we were talking bout last night? 
Edited by nl (Wed Jul 13 2005 10:34 PM)
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javlin
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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If that keeps up for another 3-6hrs it is no longer a wobble I would say.It has been going at it for 6hrs now.NNW? maybe NW?
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
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Quote:
If that keeps up for another 3-6hrs it is no longer a wobble I would say.It has been going at it for 6hrs now.NNW? maybe NW?
Past hours have shown a general northward trend. Not good. Lets see how long it keeps up, because if it lasts another say 5 hours, Florida looks to be in the cross hairs again.
EDIT: Mets. Is it possible this northward trend is due to a possible weakness created by the large piece of convection that broke off earlier and has held together since?
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
Edited by CaneTrackerInSoFl (Wed Jul 13 2005 10:39 PM)
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jr928
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 101
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I call this the bastardi model. he and that model have something bad against the big easy, they both shoot for it regularly.
Guys, no more Bastardi talk, k? Check earlier in this thread if you have any questions. It's probably my fault in the first place for bringing him up, but it's time to move on. Thanks... -Clark
Edited by Clark (Wed Jul 13 2005 10:53 PM)
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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Quote:
The midlevel ridge to the N of Emily is sliding east. Its now located near 52W compared to yesterdays 58-60W. Emily has already jumped just N of west and will begin moving wnw to almost nw at times. There is a strong mid and upper high in the gulf with a branch extending to the midatlantic. A trough extends in the atlantic down to the bahamas to eastern cuba where a weak midlevel low is. This combined with Emily being sw of the small ridge will push her wnw-nw. Computer models are split almost from the start. ( genereally the best model in the tropics) continues Emily more w-wnw and takes her towards belieze and the Yucitan......GFS and takes her near Jamaica and near Cancun,Mex or just north of there. Canadian and UkMet are towards the SE gulf on a track very simular to . Current thinking is that the ridge over the Gulf will stay in place for awhile longer and the ridge over the midatlantic will be strong but not maybe as strong as forecasted earlier. Also this ridge might be slightly further off in the atlantic. So there should be a weakness that continues near the bahamas and south florida. remenents will continue over the Ohio valley and get stretched out between the ridges to its south and east and a trough coming into the plains and great lakes by early this weekend.
I feel there is more toss up to what Emily might do then 24 hrs ago when I felt she will stay south and follow what the current was saying...and it still could. The weak trough near Cuba and the bahamas stretching in the atlantic might not pick her up enough to bring her towards Cuba. Also though I think the ridge off the mid-atlantic might be further out by the weekend. The Gulf ridge I feel will win out over the midatlantic one causeing more weakness then forcasted over the bahamas. This should drive Emily more towards Cuba and very simular to . Now not sure yet on landfall in the U.S. The ridge will be strong in the Gulf and could then steer Emily more west towards the Cancun area and Texas-Mexico or it could find even more weakness and head N. Right now its hard to tell.
Only way for this system to head up to Florida or the Bahamas would be for a stronger trough off the bahamas and florida and the ridge in the gulf to slide alittle more W ( which isnt out of the question).
Overall expect a wnw-nw path to near Jamaica and Cuba for now then more w feeling the ridge in the gulf.........
scottsvb
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jr928
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 101
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with a season this busy and a 10yr projection for this much activity, is this big business in vegas yet?
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