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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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trinibaje
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 136
Loc: MIAMI, FLORIDA
Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica [Re: Biowatch]
      #43242 - Fri Jul 15 2005 10:02 AM

Quote:

Thanks for reply, Rasvar. I don't know the geography there either. I read that the town named "Izamel" means "city of hills". That spells trouble for mudslides to me.Hopefully, if it does hit the Yucatan, it will be fast moving and not dump quite as much rain. Speed seems pretty high right now.....hopefully it does not slow down....Have not seen any eye on radar this morning....




I remember spending some time in Merida in 1994, i don't recall it being mountainous at all. If Emily is a wet storm i would be more concerned about flooding in that region. Merida has lots of strong old style spanish buidlings and hotels. If she is in Merida she should take shelter in one of those.

also merida is away from coast.. so i don't think there is a storm surge issue

--------------------
-----------MY 2005 PREDICTION--------
15/10/5


Edited by trinibaje (Fri Jul 15 2005 10:08 AM)


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Biowatch
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 19
Loc: Massachusetts
Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica [Re: cjzydeco]
      #43243 - Fri Jul 15 2005 10:12 AM

Cjzydeco....thanks for very helpful comments. I have had only one course in geology, but your note about the limestone hits home and I agree that mudslides probably would not be the issue then. I was not sure about the elevation...so thanks again. Looking at the track of the storm and timing of the storm path, she should be moving towards the coast near Puerto Morelos Beach on the 18th...a close call if there is a surge there due to the low levels in that travel area...yikes!

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cjzydeco
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 120
Loc: Sebastian, FL
Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica [Re: Biowatch]
      #43244 - Fri Jul 15 2005 10:13 AM

Is she is Izamel or Izamal?

Never mind... you answered my question about where she will be soon, anyways!

--------------------
Lat/Lon: 27.8, -80.5
Frances '04, Jeanne '04, Wilma '05, Ernesto '06, Faye '08

Edited by cjzydeco (Fri Jul 15 2005 10:18 AM)


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Biowatch
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 19
Loc: Massachusetts
Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica [Re: trinibaje]
      #43245 - Fri Jul 15 2005 10:17 AM

trinibaje.....thanks for comments on Merida. Good to know there are some solid structures there. I know her trip ends there, so further down the line (as there seems to be a progression of active areas coming off of Africa) this will be important. Unfortunately, she is on the way to the coast this Sunday. Did not think we would have to deal with this in July! Very few phones in the areas she has been in. Little contact. I'm trying to learn Spanish quickly!

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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
Re: Emily Category 4,yucatan [Re: trinibaje]
      #43246 - Fri Jul 15 2005 10:24 AM

I am not likeing this at all.Looks like my favorite place on earth will be destroyed.As most of you know I used to live in Playa Del Carmen,Mx.This is a very bad place for ANY hurricane,let alone a cat 4.I have many friends there and I am very worried for them.There are not many places you can go to be safe there.Playa is about one hour south of Cancun.There are no buildings over three stories in Playa.My heart is breaking.I love this place and the people so much.I can only pray that some how it does not get hit.

--------------------

Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica [Re: MikeC]
      #43247 - Fri Jul 15 2005 10:25 AM

Recon reports the pressure is up 16mb to 968mb since the 5a/8a advisories; it also reports concentric eyewalls of 8 and 25 miles in diameter, which suggests the eyewall replacement cycle is in full effect. This weakening isn't entirely unexpected and may continue for a brief period of time until the cycle completes, perhaps knocking the intensity down to around the threshold of major hurricane status. We'll know more in 20 minutes.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica [Re: AgentB]
      #43248 - Fri Jul 15 2005 10:33 AM

Quote:

If you think about some of the strongest hurricanes in history(Camille/Andrew/etc), they weren't very large storms. More specifically their eyes weren't very large. I think it would take less heat/energy to build, maintain and strengthen a smaller stormso it's a bit easier to become very strong.
Quote:



Camille did not have an extremely small eye. A US Army Corp of Engineers map showed the eye to be 12 miles in diameter, centered over Waveland and going over the bay and part of Pass Christian at landfall.

There is also a story on the web of someone who lived in Gulfport in the College Park / Mississippi City subdivision, that makes the claim the eye passed over his home and they were in the eye for 45 minutes. Pass Christian is about 12 mi to the west. If this is true, the size of the eye would have been much much larger...but since the eye was travelling W of N I believe this story to be unlikely, especially because of the long time the survivor says the eye remained overhead. ALso all other information in the story is exagerrated; the highest winds were 220, not 230, and the highest storm surge was 25 ft, not 27 ft.

The storm was not small. I lived in Pascagoula, MS, which is way over on the east side of the MS Gulf Coast, and which sustained considerable damage from hurricane-force winds. The eye hit just about on the west end of the MS coastline, and the entire coastline sustained major damage. That is like saying if a similar size and intensity storm hit Pensacola where Dennis just did, every building right on the ocean between Gulf Breeze and Destin would be *completely* gone, with severe wind damage all the way out to Panama City (about 60 miles to the east of the eye).

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp

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VandyBrad
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 80
Loc: Bryan, TX
Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica [Re: Margie]
      #43252 - Fri Jul 15 2005 10:44 AM

I think this storm size debate is quite interesting. Would Clark or any of the other mets like to chime in?

--------------------
Brad Shumbera


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
Re: Emily Category 4,yucatan [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #43253 - Fri Jul 15 2005 10:46 AM

As you can see everything is right on the beach. www.spanish-language-school.net/playa-del-carmen/images/playa.jpg

--------------------

Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .


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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
Re: Emily Category 4,yucatan [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #43254 - Fri Jul 15 2005 10:59 AM

wow the NHC is showing Emily downgrading to a TS very early after she
hits over by mexico and texas, that seems fast to me

--------------------
Pam in Volusia County

According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6


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Biowatch
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 19
Loc: Massachusetts
Re: Emily Category 4,yucatan [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #43255 - Fri Jul 15 2005 10:59 AM

ftlaudbob.....very beautiful place.....hope it is missed by Emily.....

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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc:
Re: Emily Category 4,yucatan [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #43256 - Fri Jul 15 2005 10:59 AM

Interesting, the 11:00 discussion says no reintensification after hitting Yucatan, but this is a really close call as the path right now is only over the very tip...and could easily miss it altogether.

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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nandav
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 37
Loc: Pt. Charlotte, FL
Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica [Re: Margie]
      #43257 - Fri Jul 15 2005 11:10 AM

This is interesting.. in 1976, we went through SuperTyphoon Pamela on Guam. Guam is only 10 miles wide at the widest point.. and about 55 miles long (I thnk). I've seen a number of different values for the winds.. from sustained at 165 - 190 mph. Anyway, it took 12 HOURS for it to clear the island .. and we were in the eye for 3 hours. I was a shelter nurse for the island Public Health, and remember that quite well.. The sight the next morning was unbelievable.. we were fortunate that we lived in Navy housing.. and we used to joke that they were built by the same people who built fall-out shelters, they were like brick block houses with flat roofs!! Anyway, it sounds like this scenario must be a bit unusual.. they say it moved very slowly once it hit the island. But it must have been a very large storm, too..

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Ed G
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 77
Loc: Clermont, Fl
Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica [Re: nandav]
      #43258 - Fri Jul 15 2005 11:19 AM

Lord, I loved Guam. Went there for a month's vacation and would go back in a heart beat!

Had a buddy (HM1) who worked at the Navy Hospital and had a house in Santa Maria, just up the road from Gab Gab Beach.

was there when a typhoon rolled in.


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nandav
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 37
Loc: Pt. Charlotte, FL
Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica [Re: Ed G]
      #43259 - Fri Jul 15 2005 11:36 AM

We lived there for 2 1/2 years.. would go back tomorrow! Even the typhoons and earthquakes didn't scare us (guess we were a lot younger then). I know Santa Maria and Gab Gab beach..... We lived in the middle of the island in Apra Heights.

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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
Re: Emily Category 4,yucatan [Re: NewWatcher]
      #43260 - Fri Jul 15 2005 11:44 AM

It looks like Emily could miss the Yucatan , or just glance by it, and will make a bee line for Texas. Hopefully, it will lose some of its strength as it makes landfall. Hopefully, it will give enough rain to texas without the damaging winds.

--------------------
________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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Biowatch
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 19
Loc: Massachusetts
Re: Emily Category 4,yucatan [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #43261 - Fri Jul 15 2005 11:57 AM

Hope you are right, rmbjoe...although I wish no harm to Texas, I would breathe a sigh of relief if it missed the Yucatan!

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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica [Re: VandyBrad]
      #43262 - Fri Jul 15 2005 11:58 AM

Smaller storms do have the potential to strengthen and weaken more rapidly than their larger counterparts. That is due, in part, to conservation of angular momentum as the winds go around the center of the storm. The leap can be made to say that most intense hurricanes were the smaller ones, because it is easier for them to reach that level at a quicker rate -- they are influenced more both positively and negatively by their environment -- than for the larger storms.

It's not to say that large storms can't reach category 4/5 status, however; Frances would suggest otherwise, as would Mitch. You have to remember, too, that most storms grow in size (and weaken, but this is generally only weakly related to the size argument) as they head north into the midlatitudes; those that continue west are unaffected by the midlatitude steering currents and have less of a proclivity to grow in size. Camille would be the exception.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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VandyBrad
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 80
Loc: Bryan, TX
Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica [Re: Clark]
      #43263 - Fri Jul 15 2005 12:00 PM

Thanks Clark. Conservation of angular momentum... now why didn't I think of that?

--------------------
Brad Shumbera


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
Re: Emily Category 4,yucatan [Re: Biowatch]
      #43264 - Fri Jul 15 2005 12:10 PM

Right now the eye would go about 30 miles north of Playa Del Carmen,and that would still wipe the town out.But I hope it keeps going north.

--------------------

Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .


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