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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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KimmieL
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Reged: Sat
Posts: 26
Loc: Baton Rouge, La
Re: Concentric Eyewalls [Re: KimmieL]
      #43358 - Sat Jul 16 2005 01:37 AM

Just read the Recon Info and in the notes it spoke of Attenuation, is that referring to the beginning of the eyewall replacement? Didn't it go through this cycle about 4 or 5 hours ago?

Kimmie


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Concentric Eyewalls [Re: KimmieL]
      #43359 - Sat Jul 16 2005 01:47 AM

The attenuation they are referring to should be the radar's attenuation.
Probably due to very heavy rain.
I noticed that observation too. Don't recall seeing it before.

Nicole Mitchell, of The Weather Channel, is a US Air Force Meteorologist, and was flying on one of the missions Wednesday night. I heard her doing a phone interview early Friday morning. She stated that normally they encountered turbulence just prior to entering the eyewall.
However, during the flight she referred to, they encountered turbulence, lightning and hail.
I don't know if she is flying tonight or not. As the aircraft are rotating flights.

Here's another Concentric Eyewall link.
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/D8.html

Edited by danielw (Sat Jul 16 2005 01:51 AM)


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KimmieL
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 26
Loc: Baton Rouge, La
Re: Concentric Eyewalls [Re: danielw]
      #43360 - Sat Jul 16 2005 01:56 AM

That is the first time I have heard of hail in a hurricane??

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danielwAdministrator
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Intermediate Advisory-edited [Re: KimmieL]
      #43361 - Sat Jul 16 2005 02:04 AM

HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM AST SAT JUL 16 2005

..CATGEORY FOUR HURRICANE EMILY GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED SOUTHEAST
OF JAMAICA...

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE AT LEAST 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MEANS EMILY IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
STRENGTH ARE COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES AND CAN BE EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS NOW EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 75 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 150 MILES...240 KM. NOAA BUOY 42058 LOCATED ABOUT 40 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 47
MPH.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42058

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 953 MB...28.14 INCHES.

(full Advisory available by clicking the map on the left sidebar)

Edited by danielw (Sat Jul 16 2005 02:07 AM)


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HanKFranK
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Re: Concentric Eyewalls [Re: KimmieL]
      #43362 - Sat Jul 16 2005 02:07 AM

i'm not even sure specifically.. but it means weakening. in the context of the eyewall replacement cycles that makes sense. i was moving all my stuff to a new apartment today and bellsouth cut my phone/dsl early (incompetents) and didn't hook it up at my new place yet (three days advance... incompetents)... so i was high and dry until getting back to my folks place this evening. last i saw the other night emily was a 4, got back to see it this evening it had been down to 2 and was a 3.. after going to grab the new harry potter for my kid sister (ok i admit it i'll read it too) it's a 4... small core hurricanes like this spin up and down as their eyewalls die out and return... like a short-charged phoenix. cat 4s with pressures in the 950s are tightly wound and small by definition... a storm of comparable compactness and a pressure in the 920s would be a camille-esque 5. it's possible it'll bottom out at 5 in one of its cycles later, but not terribly likely. one thing emily has done consistently is lunge to the left and not ever turn as hard right as forecast, so i'm really skeptical about texas. granted it looks to be getting into an area where the deep layer flow will push it more wnw, but all the westward lunges have put emily well south of the earlier projected tracks. this is more than likely all the way a mexico problem. crossing the yucatan should really knock the wind out of emily, also, due to it's compactness and lower resiliency. still a 90% mexico 10% texas worry. probably do it's worst on the yucatan coast between chetumal and cozumel (hit around felipe carrillo puerto), spin down to a ts/cat 1, then spin back up to 3-ish by its second landfall somewhere around la pesca or soto la marina. due to size and likely impact to rural parts of mexico, even if it's a 4 it probably won't be a major killer or destroyer of property. if it gets up to texas and hits anywhere aside from the king ranch/kenedy county it's a different story, in terms of monetary impact. early to make this call with a whole lot of confidence, but emily's most likely path shouldn't make it very sensational or infamous.
still eyeballing 99L as it is undergoing the strongest sw shear we've seen a system take so far this season. the vortmax/near closed low that's accompanied this system and arguably been a closed low at times is looking very open and diffuse... the system should get into the lull of the trough axis and into a weaker/northerly shear environment tomorrow and the following day.. if enough of the disturbance stays coherent and doesnt shear off n/ne then the conditions late in the weekend going into early next week will finally give this a shot at developing. the vorticity with this system at the low to mid levels has been moving stubbornly westward, and hasn't shown proclivity to curve up between the ridges as the globals were suggesting. i'd say 30-70 it survives to get going.. not the most likely event, but definitely trouble if it does. there's enough ridging near the east coast to send this one hurtling westward in a steadily intensifying mode... better hope this thing doesn't become franklin.
subsequent wave petered out, though it has a good signature aloft. it will bumble along westward, perhaps acting up as it gets closer to the islands. the next wave should come off tomorrow. it is notable that neither is garnering model support. as a matter of fact nothing shown in the models looks very threatening outside of emily, with meager support for 99L. emily may avoid being a u.s. problem.. a system called franklin developing out of 99L most likely would be a problem.
HF 0706z16july


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danielwAdministrator
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Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Concentric Eyewalls [Re: HanKFranK]
      #43363 - Sat Jul 16 2005 02:16 AM

Thanks Hank. I can always count on you and Clark to liven up the posting during the night!
And I see both of you are logged on. At 2 AM!!
I noticed the NGM, (just checked it too) totally wiped out Emily before she got to the Yucatan Peninsula.
Outlier at best. Never checked it for tropicals before.


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Terra
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
Re: New Forums [Re: Unregistered User]
      #43364 - Sat Jul 16 2005 02:37 AM

Quote:

...plus that it is a Friday night, things should be pretty slow around here. For one, I'm glad they are...--Clark




So, are you implying that those of us that are here every Friday night should get a life? Notice that you're a big nerd just like the rest of us 'regulars' around here! I hope you know I mean that in the absolute most affectionate way!

--------------------
Terra Dassau Cahill


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Clark
Meteorologist


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Posts: 1710
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Re: New Forums [Re: Terra]
      #43365 - Sat Jul 16 2005 02:49 AM

Yeah, yeah, I know! I told Danny I was heading out for the night about 3 hours ago...so much for that idea! Really though, I'm heading out.

Emily has about 6-12 more hours to either hold its own or intensify slightly before going under again with an eyewall replacement cycle. The storm has trended westward once again, liking sparing Jamaica from the worst, but this will only lead to a stronger storm once it hits the Yucutan. That's two days down the line, though.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Terra
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
Re: Concentric Eyewalls [Re: HanKFranK]
      #43366 - Sat Jul 16 2005 02:49 AM

Quote:

probably do it's worst on the yucatan coast between chetumal and cozumel (hit around felipe carrillo puerto), spin down to a ts/cat 1, then spin back up to 3-ish by its second landfall somewhere around la pesca or soto la marina. due to size and likely impact to rural parts of mexico, even if it's a 4 it probably won't be a major killer or destroyer of property. if it gets up to texas and hits anywhere aside from the king ranch/kenedy county it's a different




I'm confused by this... are you saying that there would be less impact to Mexico than Texas because of population? If so, then I understand, but, if not, I am confused. I would have thought that Mexico would take significant damage, no matter where a hurricane hit, as structures aren't as 'sound' or well constructed as they are in other places. Perhaps I am just generalizing Mexico, however....

--------------------
Terra Dassau Cahill


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ShanaTX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 226
Loc: Texas
Re: Concentric Eyewalls [Re: HanKFranK]
      #43367 - Sat Jul 16 2005 02:50 AM

Quote:

if it gets up to texas and hits anywhere aside from the king ranch/kenedy county it's a different story




the king ranch/kenedy county = last time one blew through there they evacuated both cowboys in the county. I always wondered what they did about the cattle...(they mooved out too!~danielw)
Emily is sure givin people fits what with her stubborness and her 9 lives... just as we think she's gonna wobble off into the sunset...

She's Back!

Over all though, seems like the NHC has been pretty happy with their Mexico/Texas border give or take a bit for a while now. Our local tv people are starting to mention 1980 Allen and the tornado outbreaks we had here then... I think I'll think about that tomorrow.

I'm hopin that the tornados will be kept to a minimum..

'shana

Edited by danielw (Sat Jul 16 2005 03:01 AM)


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danielwAdministrator
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Nights [Re: ShanaTX]
      #43368 - Sat Jul 16 2005 02:54 AM

I quit refreshing for 10 minutes and you three are making Leno look bad!


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
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Re: Concentric Eyewalls [Re: Terra]
      #43369 - Sat Jul 16 2005 03:02 AM

less to break in mexico, that's all i'm saying. most of the yucatan is rural, especially on the east coast of the yucatan between chetumal and cozumel (it gets whacked by hurricanes enough i guess that folks aren't running each other over to move there). the mainland gulf coast south of matamoros is also largely rural all the way down to tampico... goes from semiarid plains to desert and mountains inland from there.
kenedy county texas is home to several hundred thousand cows and a couple hundred people. it's almost as big as delaware. brownsville/raymondville and the cities strung up the lower rio grande to the south, kingsville/corpus to the north... and another sizeable town or city as you go up the coast from there in every other county.
yes, if it stays in mexico, much less to break.
HF 0801z16july

Edited by HanKFranK (Sat Jul 16 2005 03:15 AM)


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
99L... watch it tomorrow [Re: HanKFranK]
      #43370 - Sat Jul 16 2005 03:08 AM

99L is right up against that upper trough along 55w. that trough is currently digging with a max moving sw to the w of 99L... which is moving wnw. the convection should continue firing to the north due to the diffluence on the ne flank of the max on the the upper trough.. as it gets around to the north it will be in a 'lull' tomorrow... a consolidation window. after that it'll be moving west of the upper trough with northerly shear that steadily lightens up. 99L only has to survive about 12-18 more hours of shear before things start to improve. it had better rip it up and kill it now.. else this thing will be entering a development window.
HF 0808z16july


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MikeInCorpus
Unregistered




Re: Concentric Eyewalls [Re: HanKFranK]
      #43371 - Sat Jul 16 2005 03:09 AM

I'd have to agree, not as many people between Tampico until Matamoras/Brownsville area. I live in Corpus Christi and recently drove the route between Corpus and Akumal, south of Cozumel on the Yucatan.

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danielwAdministrator
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Emily [Re: MikeInCorpus]
      #43372 - Sat Jul 16 2005 03:17 AM

I hope you and others on the Lower Texas Coast are keeping a watchful eye on Emily.

Recon has departed and next Recon isn't due until 11Z-7 AM EDT, with a Center fix at 12Z-8 AM EDT.


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danielwAdministrator
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Emily-Late Recon Update [Re: danielw]
      #43373 - Sat Jul 16 2005 03:40 AM

HURRICANE EMILY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
315 AM EDT SAT JUL 16 2005

..HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATES HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTENDS FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...

SHORTLY BEFORE 300 AM EDT...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE OF 953 MB AND A FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 131 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT ON THE OUTBOUND LEG.
THIS WIND SPEED IS ROUGHLY EQUAL TO A SURFACE WIND OF 118 KT...OR 136 MPH...WHICH MAKES EMILY A SOLID CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE.

EQUALLY IMPORTANT IS THAT JUST 90 NMI NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 88-92 KT...OR APPROXIMATELY 79-83 KT/90-95 MPH...
WERE INDICATED IN THE LARGE OUTER RAIN BAND THAT HAS FORMED DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
IF THE RAIN BAND PERSISTS...THEN HURRICANE-FORCE WIND GUSTS...WITH POSSIBLY SUSTAINED HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...MAY OCCUR LATER TODAY AS EMILY PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA.

FORECASTER STEWART

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES0731200519744NnkE.jpg

Edited by danielw (Sat Jul 16 2005 03:52 AM)


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ShanaTX
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Re: Emily-Late Recon Update [Re: danielw]
      #43374 - Sat Jul 16 2005 04:40 AM

New advisory is out

Quote:

Hurricane Emily Advisory Number 22

Statement as of 5:00 am AST on July 16, 2005

At 5 am AST...0900z...the center of Hurricane Emily was located near
latitude 15.6 north... longitude 75.8 west or about 180 miles...
285 km... south-southeast of Kingston Jamaica and about 440
miles... 705 km...southeast of Grand Cayman.


Emily is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph...30 km/hr...
and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24
hours.


Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph...220 km/hr...with higher
gusts. This makes Emily is a category four hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Some fluctuations in strength are
possible during the next 24 hours.


Hurricane force winds now extend outward up to 70 miles...110 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 150 miles...240 km. For Jamaica...hurricane force winds may
occur in gusts later today along the coasts...with possible
sustained hurricane force winds at higher elevations...especially
above 3000 feet.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb...28.05 inches.






So she's gettin bigger and more powerful too?

Wowie.

'shana


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danielwAdministrator
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5 AM NHC Discussion-edited [Re: ShanaTX]
      #43375 - Sat Jul 16 2005 05:14 AM

HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT JUL 16 2005

AIR FORCE RECON DATA NEAR 06Z INDICATED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD FALLEN TO 953 MB...AND A 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 131 KT...OR 118 KT EQUIVALENT SURFACE WINDS...WAS OBSERVED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT DURING THE OUTBOUND LEG. GIVEN THAT THE 15 NMI DIAMETER EYE HAS CLEARED OUT NICELY SINCE THE RECON FLIGHT...AND THAT ODT
VALUES OVER THE PAST 1.5H HAVE BEEN T6.5/127 KT...THE INTENSITY FOR THE ADVISORY IS BEING CONSERVATIVELY INCREASED TO 120 KT. THE IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW PATTERN ALSO CONTINUES TO IMPROVE.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 285/16. EMILY HAS BEEN ON A 285 DEGREE HEADING FOR THE PAST 48 HOURS...AND I SEE NO INDICATIONS THAT THAT MOTION SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE ANY TIME SOON. UPPER-AIR DATA AT 00Z INDICATES 24-HOUR 700-400 MB HEIGHTS ACROSS FLORIDA HAVE INCREASED BY ABOUT 20 METERS. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT...AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM...EMILY SHOULD CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT MOTION AND PASS MORE THAN 60 NMI SOUTH OF JAMAICA LATER TODAY. BEYOND THAT...THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON EMILY MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. BY 72 HOURS...A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE U.S. PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO DIG EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. AND WEAKEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS MAY ALLOW EMILY TO BRIEFLY MOVE MORE NORTHWESTWARD...BEFORE TURNING BACK TOWARD THE WEST AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY AWAY FROM THE AREA AND ALLOWS THE RIDGE TO BUILD STRONGLY WESTWARD. LOCATION OF A SECOND LANDFALL IS DIFFCULT TO PREDICT AT 96 HOURS...BUT THE MOST LIKELY AREA APPEARS TO BE FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS TO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO.

full text here:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/160857.shtml

highlighted for emphasis~danielw

GHCC satellite frame of outflow.
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES084520051973KGhNc.jpg

Edited by danielw (Sat Jul 16 2005 05:16 AM)


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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


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Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
Re: 5 AM NHC Discussion-edited [Re: danielw]
      #43377 - Sat Jul 16 2005 06:25 AM

It appears Cacncun is threatened by the models; but if that trough entrenches itself for a while I see a potential turn towards Texas.

--------------------
________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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Clark
Meteorologist


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Re: 5 AM NHC Discussion-edited [Re: danielw]
      #43381 - Sat Jul 16 2005 08:53 AM

Here we go again...recon reports pressure is down to 944mb and winds up to 145mph. Emily's now a midrange category 4 hurricane with an outside shot of further strengthening before the next eyewall replacement cycle.

It should be noted that shear tendencies to the west of the storm are highly negative, i.e. the storm is entering an increasingy favorable region as it moves along relative to what that area was looking like just a day ago. As seen yesterday, convection on the north and east sides of the storm is being enhanced by very favorable divergent upper-level winds. Outflow to the south and west is a little pinched, but it certainly isn't stopping the storm from deepening.

Ed has more in the met blogs...

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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