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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: special statement [Re: nl]
      #43425 - Sat Jul 16 2005 01:38 PM

Clever little minx - she's getting smaller (observe overall surface area on sat images between 10:45 and 16:15 UTC).

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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HCW
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
Re: special statement [Re: Margie]
      #43426 - Sat Jul 16 2005 01:47 PM

Winds up to 155 at 2pm 937mb

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Over 4,000 members and now on a new server

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Edited by HCW (Sat Jul 16 2005 01:48 PM)


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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
Other Cyclone [Re: Margie]
      #43427 - Sat Jul 16 2005 01:48 PM

Another interesting thing going on is the Super Typhoon Haitang. It is a Cat 5 right now. Quite interesting that we have two incredibly powerful cyclones opposite each other in the world right now.

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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
Re: special statement [Re: HCW]
      #43428 - Sat Jul 16 2005 01:48 PM

Quote:

Winds up to 155 at 2pm 937mb



It dropped 6 mbs in 3 hours. Wow. Strengthening rapidly still.

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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Biowatch
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 19
Loc: Massachusetts
Re: biowatch are you around? [Re: Margie]
      #43429 - Sat Jul 16 2005 02:01 PM

Margie......thanks for the notes.......have been busy calling Mexico.....finally reached the organization through a website.......and they did return my call (from a site in Penn). They are moving the group tomorrow morning by bus from the eastern part to Merida.....more on the western side. Still seems risky, but at least it is a move. Hurricane intensifying is not comforting......Hoping that tomorrow is not too late as well.

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Terra
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
Re: biowatch are you around? [Re: Biowatch]
      #43432 - Sat Jul 16 2005 02:11 PM

Should be due for an EWRC soon.... hopefully that will put a stop to this mad strengthening....

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Terra Dassau Cahill


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HCW
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
Re: biowatch are you around? [Re: Terra]
      #43434 - Sat Jul 16 2005 02:15 PM

Quote:

Should be due for an EWRC soon.... hopefully that will put a stop to this mad strengthening....




and then what it comes back as a 170 -175 mph cane in 12 hours ?

not sure how that's good

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Terra
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
Re: biowatch are you around? [Re: HCW]
      #43436 - Sat Jul 16 2005 02:20 PM

It doesn't have to though... the weakening phase is a good thing, and then perhaps conditions will change and not allow it to restrengthen.... Seems like there's at least a chance to me, rather than purely intensifying...

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Terra Dassau Cahill


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: biowatch are you around? [Re: Biowatch]
      #43437 - Sat Jul 16 2005 02:31 PM

Quote:

Margie......thanks for the notes.......have been busy calling Mexico.....finally reached the organization through a website.......and they did return my call (from a site in Penn). They are moving the group tomorrow morning by bus from the eastern part to Merida.....more on the western side. Still seems risky, but at least it is a move. Hurricane intensifying is not comforting......Hoping that tomorrow is not too late as well.




Merida looks to be the largest city in the Yucatan, with some fancy hotels, freeways, an airport - and all on the west side of the Yucatan, but not on the coast. Looks very, very safe. I don't think you need to worry any more.

Encarta map:

http://encarta.msn.com/map_701517806/Yucat%C3%A1n_(state_Mexico).html

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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Biowatch
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 19
Loc: Massachusetts
Re: biowatch are you around? [Re: Margie]
      #43438 - Sat Jul 16 2005 02:36 PM

Margie......thanks again. I do feel more relaxed and will save the links that you listed for me. I think my daughter is a hurricane magnet.......this is not the first time we have been in this situation....although this one is harder to deal with. Funny, because I am the hurricane watcher and she has no interest in them!

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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: special statement [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #43439 - Sat Jul 16 2005 02:50 PM

Well would you look at that? The Jamaican land mass didn't affect her that much, the core got smaller, and son of a gun if a band of colder cloud tops wrapping quickly around the western side isn't filling in the circular shape nicely. I thought something was happening a couple of hours ago - looking at the water vapor it seemed like the outflow hit a bit of a wall - at around 82W on a N-S line but I guess that wasn't anything, and I'm just not that good at reading the maps yet. Guess that warm water she's been going over is really helping things along.

I had always thought she'd go to a CAT 5 today, but I had envisioned the big strengthening happening later this aft and into this evng.

Not looking so good for Cozumel and Cancun, but the roller coaster ride of intensity could mean Emily won't be this powerful at landfall. Looks like the minimum will be a strong CAT 3 though.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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nl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 207
Loc: nsb,fl
Re: special statement [Re: Margie]
      #43440 - Sat Jul 16 2005 02:53 PM

what bout the wave ne of her?

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Todd
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 30
Loc: Havelock, NC(34.89n76.92w)
Re: Other Cyclone [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #43441 - Sat Jul 16 2005 02:54 PM

If I were in the Caymans and Cozumel, I would definitely get off the island.

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MIkeG
Unregistered




Re: Other Cyclone [Re: Todd]
      #43442 - Sat Jul 16 2005 02:56 PM

the met service in jamica is taking screen shots with a digital camera of emily...take a look

http://www.metservice.gov.jm/Emily2.jpg


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Other Cyclone [Re: MIkeG]
      #43443 - Sat Jul 16 2005 03:14 PM

well been watching emily with the RSO vis and have to say....WOW...haven't seen anything like this since Ivan....the pictures (sat shots) are......WOW.......the eye stadium effect is pretty kewl.....i can't wait to see what NASA will have in the next day or so of emily...i wouldn't want to be in cancun this weekend... and looks like we may have the first cat 5 soon...(or second as some folks say)

here's a pea at a shot
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/data/rmtcrso/126.jpg

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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
Re: Emily Gets Stronger [Re: MikeC]
      #43444 - Sat Jul 16 2005 03:15 PM

Emily may reach Cat 5 status. Have there been other storms that reached Cat 5 in July?

Weather experts:

Do you think the storms may just be forming early this year and during the normal "peak season" there will be fewer storms? Are do you think the tropics will continue to be active throughout the season?


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Allison
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 134
Loc: Laredo, Texas
Re: Emily Gets Stronger [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #43445 - Sat Jul 16 2005 03:19 PM

Quote:

Emily may reach Cat 5 status. Have there been other storms that reached Cat 5 in July??




Lou answered this earlier in the thread -- here's his response:

Quote:

The earliest Cat 5 recorded was 1980's Hurricane Allen, which reached Cat 5 intensity on 00Z August 5. At this point ,the storm had winds of 160mph with a central pressure of 911mb.





Allison

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Allison


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nowhammies
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 19
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: notice eye [Re: MIkeG]
      #43446 - Sat Jul 16 2005 03:20 PM

Quote:


Can you not tell by the lack of posts? since no big doom and gloom for the US its a non event to some.





Sounds to me as if you have quite an issue with the people that post here. Please remember - we are all REAL human beings with feelings. I for one do not appreciate the fact that my concern for others ends when a storm leaves the borders of FL. I live in Central FL and went through the storms and recovery last year. This makes me a bit gun-shy and a bit more concerned as I see, or hear, possibilities that storms may affect me. IN NO WAY does that make storms that do not appear to affect me a non-issue. I have friends that like all around the GOM basin, including contacts from other organizations that live in other countries. I am very concerned aboput them as well. My prayers are as much with them as they are for my own town when we appear to be in the cross hairs.

True many of us do not post as much when a storm turns elsewhere, but that has much more to do with the fear for our own safety subsiding and allowing us the ability to watch and learn from those who are much more knowledgeable about these storms then we are.

I realize that this comment would be better directed to PM but since you are unregistered I could not do that.

Thanks again to everyone here (and that would be just about all of you) who know more about these incredible storms than I do. You willingness to provide information to me ad everyone else has helped me develop a true healthy respect for these storms.


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Allison
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 134
Loc: Laredo, Texas
Eyewall Replacement Cycle [Re: Terra]
      #43447 - Sat Jul 16 2005 03:23 PM

I was wondering about this as Dennis made landfall last weekend, and now it's coming up again with Emily:

What is the average time in between EWRC's? And how long after completion of an EWRC does the intensity peak before the next replacement cycle begins?

Thanks!

--------------------
Allison


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ShanaTX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 226
Loc: Texas
Re: Emily Gets Stronger [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #43448 - Sat Jul 16 2005 03:24 PM

Quote:

Emily may reach Cat 5 status. Have there been other storms that reached Cat 5 in July?




Nope. Earlier in this post or the previous one someone asked and the reply was that the earliest recorded Cat 5 was Allen in 1980 who became a Cat 5 on Aug 5th. And came ashore just south of the Mexico- US border .... almost exactly where Emily is supposed to be heading...

'shana

lol @ Allison Great minds and all that!

Edited by ShanaTX (Sat Jul 16 2005 03:26 PM)


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