G. J.
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 30
Loc: Tampa, FL
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So we're looking at about 171mph surface winds now?  
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Allison
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 134
Loc: Laredo, Texas
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Quote:
I don't see how it could get much below 920, 915. It passed over the warmest water today and is running out of ocean real estate before cooler water.
Here's an interesting tidbit... Gilbert reached 888mb at 19.7N 83.8W -- just south of the Isle of Youth.
I don't know if there's any way to find out what the conditions surrounding Gilbert were at that time, and how they might differ from the conditions around Emily -- although most likely he wasn't headed into cooler waters... 
Margie, out of curiosity, where do you see cooler water ahead? I can't find the link to sea surface temps that I used to use -- do you have a good one?
Thanks!
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Allison
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Allison
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 134
Loc: Laredo, Texas
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Quote:
Here's a quick way to estimate the Flight Level winds to Surface Winds.
Take the reported Flight Level Wind.
Change the knots to mph, and you have a rough estimate of the Surface Wind. Without all the math.
LOL! Maybe that's how NL will get his Cat 6.... 
(kidding)
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Allison
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nl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 207
Loc: nsb,fl
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yeah there ya go. my super 6 lol! j/k
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 945
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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Quote:
Here's a quick way to estimate the Flight Level winds to Surface Winds.
Take the reported Flight Level Wind.
Change the knots to mph, and you have a rough estimate of the Surface Wind. Without all the math.
That doesn't seem to be correct.
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Michael
PWS
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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I googled for web sites during and found several but didn't bookmark them...but the most recent I saw was posted in Steve Gregory's wunderground blog. He's really accurate and an interesting read as well.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/SteveGregory/show.html
Page down a ways.
I don't have a handle on how often the ocean temps change but I think it is something to look at daily, so what is warm one day may not be the next, also the depth of the warm water is a factor as well.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Random Chaos
Unregistered
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Quote:
So we're looking at about 171mph surface winds now?
I think he means: 150kt flight level winds = 150mph surface level winds. That sounds about right based on the NWS eyewall profile study:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutwindprofile.shtml - pay particular attention to Figure 1. Changing kt to mph is equivlent of 0.86 flightlevel winds to surface winds, so it would show as slightly weaker than it really "is" (is is appoximate - check the two sample profiles to understand why).
--RC (a random lurker)
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Quote:
I think he means: 150kt flight level winds = 150mph surface level winds. That sounds about right based on the NWS eyewall profile study:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutwindprofile.shtml - pay particular attention to Figure 1. Changing kt to mph is equivlent of 0.86 flightlevel winds to surface winds, so it would show as slightly weaker than it really "is" (is is appoximate - check the two sample profiles to understand why).
--RC (a random lurker)
Thanks. That's a great link, too.
It's just a rough, fast way to determine what the Surface Winds are.
Each storm is a bit different...as there are no Perfect Storms.
150kts x 1.15=172.5mph x 0.86=148.35mph.
So the 150kt Flt Lvl Wind, is roughly 150mph at the surface.
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Latest pass through the center. At 0117Z 9:17 PM EDT.
Pressure now at 931mb.
10 nm Eye.
Edited by danielw (Sat Jul 16 2005 10:10 PM)
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Sher
Registered User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 4
Loc: Cayman Islands
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It is now 8:55EST. Winds gusting to just over 21MPH out of the East. A small bit of lightening with some of the bands came in. It was a beautiful day here, and the sunset cast a red glow all around. Looking NW at sunset had beautiful "mare's tails" that were red, looking SW had dark, low heavy clouds. Amazing! The moon peaked through and was turquoise.
TS force winds expected at 2300 EST, strongest winds expected at 0500 EST 60 - 85 kts, TS then expected to last until 1000EST.
Curfew in place from 2300 tonight until 1100 tomorrow morning.
Water company has shut down the water, utilities said it will stay up until a line is down (hopefully that won't happen 
Everyone is sitting now, waiting.
I would like to thank Ed for his fantastic updates, they have helped tremendously!
Sher
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HCW
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
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Quote:
Latest pass through the center. At 0117Z 9:17 PM EDT.
Pressure now at 931mb. (Probably another July record.)
10 nm Eye.
so shes weakening now ? Or doing an EWRC
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Over 4,000 members and now on a new server
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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Allison
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 134
Loc: Laredo, Texas
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Quote:
It is now 8:55EST. Winds gusting to just over 21MPH out of the East. A small bit of lightening with some of the bands came in. It was a beautiful day here, and the sunset cast a red glow all around. Looking NW at sunset had beautiful "mare's tails" that were red, looking SW had dark, low heavy clouds. Amazing! The moon peaked through and was turquoise.
TS force winds expected at 2300 EST, strongest winds expected at 0500 EST 60 - 85 kts, TS then expected to last until 1000EST.
Curfew in place from 2300 tonight until 1100 tomorrow morning.
Water company has shut down the water, utilities said it will stay up until a line is down (hopefully that won't happen
Everyone is sitting now, waiting.
I would like to thank Ed for his fantastic updates, they have helped tremendously!
Sher
Good luck, Sher!
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Allison
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nl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 207
Loc: nsb,fl
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anyone watching the history channel? there is stuff bout hurricanes. just seen galveston and 1991 grace. 
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Dave Sugg
Registered User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 2
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The best site I have found for Surface Sea Temps, Oceanic Heat Content, and Depth of 26°C water is:
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/
They have both global maps, and ones for main areas, such as Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.
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Terra
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
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From that (if you look at Caribbean and GOM), it appears that temps are only going to get warmer as Emily progresses.
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Terra Dassau Cahill
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 945
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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Quote:
Everyone is sitting now, waiting.
Sher
Hoping Emily stays south of you.
Cox Lumber, St. Petersburg
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Michael
PWS
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Quote:
Quote:
Latest pass through the center. At 0117Z 9:17 PM EDT.
Pressure now at 931mb. (Probably another July record.)
10 nm Eye.
so shes weakening now ? Or doing an EWRC
From Steve Gregory's wunderground blog:
"Another RECON report shows the pressure is up 2mb, but there are times that the dropsonbde 'misses' the dead center of the storm.
But in any case, pressure seems to have stabilized, and the last few stepped IR images seem to be showing a weakning to the convection on the sSSW side of the 10NM wide eyewall, and we may be starting an eyewall replacement cycle.
The temp difference is between the inside and outside of the eye is as high as I've ever seen, 16degC. This implies an extyremely tight, very healthy circulation. So the weakening of convection on the south side of the eye wall almost certainly is the first signs of an eye wall cycle replacement.
With very warm, high heat content water ahead, and no change seen to impact the outflow a top the hurricane -- Emily will probably resume some further intensification, reaching CAT 5 status during the next 18 hrs.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
JULY 16 - 7:55PM CDT
Hurricane Emily has now broken the all-time record for strongest storm so early in the season, with a central pressure of 929mb."
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Dave Sugg
Registered User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 2
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The Heat Content map shows Emily should stay strong through landfall on the Yucatan peninsula, but will not have the heat content needed to get back to a Cat 4 on the other side.
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ohioaninmiss
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 32
Loc: Columbus, OH
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I love Steve Gregory's blogs, too. Between him, Jeff Masters, and the folks here, I have learned bunches!!
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Marie
Back in Ohio from a crazy summer in Mississippi!
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Also I figured out why the surface winds didn't change from 155mph from the older recon (from six hours previous).
Even though max flt lvl winds were 141kt in section F. (I think also this was from the NW quad), the notes in section P. showed max of 151kt in NE quad. That is the number they went by in the earlier recon, not the 141kt.
So change from 151 to 149 max flt lvl winds is not significant.
And even though the pressure dropped from 937 to 929 it still wasn't quite low as they look for to determine a Cat 5 (920).
I think I looked at it all day, and it looked so perfect I could not believe it was not yet a Cat 5. Still looks so awesome on the sat images.
Try a factor of 1.04 for computing the surface winds from the max flt lvl winds. Doesn't look like it would make such a difference, however it makes a little bit of difference. 149 * 1.04 = 155. However this factor doesn't always stay the same.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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