Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Quote:
Phil -- at this rate, maybe you need a caricature for the "Lil' Phil" persona as your avatar!
I don't know anything, not anything at all about rappers. Well come to think of it I guess except Will Smith (does that count?). I just thought it sounded Southern -- y'all know what I mean, like, 'Lil Phil and Bubba went fishin'
actually, that sounds kinda gay...not that there's anything wrong with that 
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
Edited by LI Phil (Fri Jul 22 2005 10:58 PM)
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HurricaneSteph
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 12
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Is there any reason to give any validity to the two models still taking Franklin back towards Florida, a la Jeanne??
http://www.boatus.com/hurricanes/hurricane_spaghetti.asp
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HurricaneSteph
Orlando
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maybe maybe not
Unregistered
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That is a old AM Model run latest has only One going SW back to FL. Always a chance maybe 20% it could happen.
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HurricaneSteph
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 12
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Gotchya.....thanks. I did see that it was last updated at 7 am today, so things certainly have had time to change. It's just funny to see one model, out of the 5 or 6 out there, do something completely different. "Five out of six models agree, this one's heading to sea!" Er, what's up with the sixth one? Just HAS to be different....... 
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HurricaneSteph
Orlando
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damejune2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
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I doubt it will double back to florida. The 's 11pm pos of the storm has it well north of the bahamas and their track has it heading out to sea....a shipping problem more or less.
I read some where on the site that explains the differences in the models and how the bam medium and deep models don't take certain things into consideration. METS, want to help me out here? Maybe they mean certain atmosphere conditions?
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Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
Edited by damejune2 (Fri Jul 22 2005 11:31 PM)
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damejune2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
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I also read some where that the two waves off Africa were not doing well. One dissipated because of the sand storm and the other is not organized at all. The one system that bears watching is the one in the northwestern Caribbean.
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Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
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Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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I think the chances of a reversal have definately slimmed down as the day has gone on. I still think that Franklin needs to be booking past 70W heading generally NE or NNE to feel safe about it. I would say the chance of loopback is probably down around 10%. Not willing to completely count it out yet.
Interesting that inspite of such a poor structure that the pressure is still able to drop.
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Jim
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Quote:
I I read some where on the site that explains the differences in the models and how the bam medium and deep models don't take certain things into consideration. METS, want to help me out here? Maybe they mean certain atmosphere conditions?
See posts 44797 (Keith234/Clark), 44799 (Clark), 44800 (LI Phil), and 44801 (Storm Cooper) from the previous page and post 44812 (Floridacane) from this page for model explanations.
Edited to help in finding those old posts --Clark
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
Edited by Clark (Fri Jul 22 2005 11:49 PM)
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Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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The 12Z is an interesting run. Especially since the has been reliable this season so far. If I am reading it right, it appears to just barely avoid hanging the system in the no mans land of 70W. Still takes it out to sea. Hope it continues that way in future runs.
MM5 looks like an even closer situation. Yeah, still think the chance is only about 10%; of a return loop; but not ready to close the door on it.
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Jim
Edited by Rasvar (Fri Jul 22 2005 11:57 PM)
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MikeG
Unregistered
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pressure still falling
URNT12 KNHC 230341
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 23/03:26:50Z
B. 28 deg 21 min N
076 deg 18 min W
C. 850 mb 1455 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 213 deg 055 kt
G. 113 deg 010 nm
H. 1002 mb
I. 18 C/ 1526 m
J. 19 C/ 1517 m
K. 18 C/ NA
L. OPEN W
M. C15
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF305 0306A FRANKLIN OB 16
MAX FL WIND 55 KT SE QUAD 03:23:30 Z
SE still has 55kts winds at fl level
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MikeG
Unregistered
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also appears to me that an UL feature (spinning in W V ) is begining to spin around north florida (just east of tally) and appears to be moving south....looks to my eye it may be getting stronger... i think it will help the slow down the shear on west side of franklin for a little bit, but i am not 100% on the ne turn and exit with franklin, say 80% right now. Looks to be holding on the best he can right now, cuz he sure is taking a beating from shear on the west side.
I think the feature fixing to enter GOM or BOC midday tommorrow looks to be in very favorable conditions.
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Good catch on that weak upper-level feature. However, it could also be a detriment to Franklin's well-being; it could serve as a means of evacuating the outflow from the developing disturbance in the Bay of Campeche, serving to shear the storm even further by providing a focusing mechanism for such an event. It's pretty weak, though, so I can't see it spinning up and deflecting the shear, nor can I see it helping to further shear the storm all that much. We'll see come tomorrow what happens.
As for right now, though, Franklin's looking a little better on IR imagery, though the entire SW side is still exposed. The diurnal convective maximum should help to temporarily take care of that, maybe allow the storm to peek up to 55-60mph in intensity, but we'll likely see more of the same as today tomorrow unless the storm starts to accelerate to the NE.
QuikSCAT passes tonight show some broad turning over the Yucutan and out in the central Atlantic...unfortunately, the former is over land and had its east side gapped, while the latter was largely gapped as well. Convection has become more concentrated with the latter; it may just be a matter of time (re: a day or so) before we see an invest on that one. The weak area of low pressure with the Caribbean disturbance is convection-less at this time, but a large area of convection exists just along the western shore of the Yucutan/Belize. If the center reforms out there, development may take longer to get going; if not, then it may be more along the lines of what I posted earlier (with new convective development in the Bay of Campeche Saturday).
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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XLM
Unregistered
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I Think Franklin is moving slower than the forecast, this will make loop a possibility, sadly.....
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MikeG
Unregistered
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After looking at the radar from cancun,
http://smn.cna.gob.mx/radares/rad-canc.jpg
i think the system will enter GOM in mid morning now and be in GOM, or very far eastern BOC. I think we may get a pretty good system blowing up in morning, and would not be susprised if we had Gert by late tommorrow night, early sunday.
here' WV from system
Sat shots
I wouldn't take my eye of Franklin, just yet. Been a unusal season so far!!
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MikeG
Unregistered
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oh yeah:
with last statement 
look at pressure
URNT12 KNHC 230541
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 23/05:01:30Z
B. 28 deg 36 min N
076 deg 12 min W
C. 850 mb 1448 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 279 deg 049 kt
G. 218 deg 034 nm
H. 1001 mb
I. 13 C/ 1529 m
J. 21 C/ 1521 m
K. 17 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.12 / 2 nm
P. AF305 0306A FRANKLIN OB 20
MAX FL WIND 55 KT SE QUAD 03:23:30 Z
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MikeG
Unregistered
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Recon done for the night or until next plane get's there in about less than 6hrs i think.
URNT11 KNHC 230555
97779 05444 70300 76210 76200 10015 7075/ /5765
RMK AF305 0306A FRANKLIN OB 23
LAST REPORT
so will have to see what franklin does in the morning!!! 
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XLM
Unregistered
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1001 mb?
It was at 1007 last time right? about 3 hours ago?
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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franklin looks like it's just about stopped moving again. the upper shortwave is getting close... it's gonna push it east some.. how far i'm not sure. i'm still betting on it breaking loose and turning back as the shortwave passes by and ridging builds over it early next week. surprised that it's managed to intensify some tonight in spite of the shear and small anticyclone trying to maintain near the storm.
91L entering the gulf tomorrow... whatever low was trying to develop with it friday near the belize/yucatan coast is probably going to reconsolidate along the west yucatan coast between campeche and merida. early track may be wnw, but i expect it to bend right towards the texas coast as the ridging to the north migrates eastward. that's my best bet... if that doesn't verify it'll get pushed more to the west. recon will clarify how quickly the system is going to develop tomorrow.
big 'ol wave nearing 40w has all its convection trailing it.. moving into and through a good upper environment. huge gyre with the wave, lots of subsidence though... further west it gets the better the chances convection will start to get through the dry layer. wave behind it around 20w is running through a much moister environment. mediocre model support for either, but worth watching... that lead wave especially if it starts blowing convection in that large gyre.
the east atlantic is open for business.. through late september.
HF 0728z23july
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Brett
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 41
Loc: Miami, Florida
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Is it me, or does it appear that either a) the mid-level circulation is heading NE and stalling, while the low level has moved a bit SW, or b) the whole thing has just stalled and the shear makes it appear the LLC is exposed? looks a bit odd right now.
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South Florida
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XLM
Unregistered
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Now I can say, franklin is going back to the west, is not catching the trough
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