Lysis
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Reged: Thu
Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
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that was a little bit of a joke, keith. 
a message like this would be better served by a PM
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cheers
Edited by LI Phil (Fri Jul 22 2005 09:10 PM)
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LI Phil
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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The is, like JB sometimes, better at "seeing" things in the long range (which is in my humble opinion, about all it's good for) than in the short range...
What's been up with the BAMs with Franklin? Talk about your outliers...
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Steve H1
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 309
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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I didn't see the post that got deleted, but JB's call on Franklin isn't wrong yet, and neither is the BAMM. Not until he gets taken out to sea. He may come back to the west. I don't think the fork is in it yet 
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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BAM's is a basic model that takes the trajectory from AVN and adds some over unique dynamics. It's usually best when ran for shallow sheared systems, which this kinda of what Frank is....so. BAMM and BAMD are usually better, but I believe BAMS is an overall consensus of the three.
Edit: see the post two down for more. BAMS is just the shallow version of the model, not a combination of the others. The BAM-series models do best not necessarily for shallow sheared storms, but for storms in the deep tropics where there is little influence from mid-latitude features (and thus storms largely move with the large-scale flow). --Clark
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
Edited by Clark (Fri Jul 22 2005 09:21 PM)
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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i didn't say the BAMD was wrong, just that it is quite the outlier...
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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The BAM-series models take the analysis & forecasts and computer trajectories from the storm's initial position out to 120hr. The BAMS uses the 850-700mb layer, the BAMM 850-400mb, and BAMD the 850-200mb layer, with a small correction for the Beta effect (due to Coriolis; generally <2kt in forward motion towards the northwest). Note that the has been consistent in decoupling the low-level and upper-level circulations of Franklin since its inception, taking the surface features to the north and east while meandering the upper-level features back to the west and southwest.
The two BAM-series models we've been seeing are the BAMM and BAMD, neither of which include the lowest levels to any large degree in their forecasts. Thus, their forecasts are largely going to be a representation of what the views as the mid & upper-level steering pattern. Given what I noted above, it's not too much of a surprise to see them steer the storm more towards the west and towards land. This suggests that the has either too strong a ridge, too weak a shortwave trough, or some combination thereof. No matter the forecast, the solution is a rather dubious one for Franklin (unless you believe the storm will become sheared apart and fizzle out through time, which wouldn't be a bad thing necessarily), making the BAMD and BAMM solutions rather dubious at best themselves.
You can't entirely discount all of the forecasts, but I'd rather go with a model that represents the storm better -- such as the or even our (which uses the initial conditions to start the model, but diverges completely from there) -- when making a forecast. Both of those models -- and most of the others -- agree on taking it north and then northeast, with varying degrees of speed through time.
Edit: I've added some thoughts on Franklin, the NW Carib. disturbance, the central Atlantic feature, as well as Emily - still hounding Mexico - to the met blogs (also viewable on the front page).
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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yeah...what clark said...
actually, some good info on the models can be found here
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Storm Cooper
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Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
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http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/atcfwb/docs/database/new/database.html
More model data as well
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Thanks, obviously you know much more correct information then I.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Is the center reforming to the southeast?
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Clark - thanks for all the info on the models. Someone asked why GOES floater 1 was still on Emily -- isn't it to track her right to the end of the lifecycle?
Lil Phil - I appreciate the many links you post (didn't bookmark some of the ones from yesterday so I hope they get the missing posts back).
Lysis - hee hee.
It will be a long time before I learn enough information to really understand what is posted here regarding forecasting. I can see I'll have to spend a lot of time organizing the many browser bookmarks, and also trying to understand all the different types of information that are used. Are many of the very knowledgeable folks here career meteorologists or involved tangentially?
Feel lucky that Franklin is not terribly interesting to me at the moment (I don't understand all the subtleties, can't even make heads or tails out of the sat pics, lack of experience, ability) - good that it hasn't grabbed too much of my time today because SHRRREEEEEK! the 2006 IKEA cat now available to download and peruse as a PDF. Sorry about the off-topic, could not control self!!!
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Quote:
Lil Phil - I appreciate the many links you post (didn't bookmark some of the ones from yesterday so I hope they get the missing posts back).
arrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr
it's LI Phil as in "Long Island" not "Lil" as in rappers...
don't worry, though, you're only about the 20th person to make that mistake
what links are you looking for? i'll post those i have bookmarked if you tell me what you're looking for...
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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MikeG
Unregistered
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Franklin looks interesting tonight....one of two things come to mind with just a glance at sats. Franklin is about to slow down or even turn to ne. Or the mid level circulation is getting sheared away from low level center. Which could be interesting, will have to see what recon finds.
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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
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Quote:
Franklin looks interesting tonight....one of two things come to mind with just a glance at sats. Franklin is about to slow down or even turn to ne. Or the mid level circulation is getting sheared away from low level center. Which could be interesting, will have to see what recon finds.
Actually looks like the low level clouds are moving S-SE...I agree...either the mid-level center is getting sheared away or the system is drifting south..I wonder if we'll even have a named system by morning
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RJB
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MikeG
Unregistered
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old data?
URNT12 KNHC 230204
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 23/01:48:30Z
B. 28 deg 11 min N
076 deg 22 min W
C. 850 mb 1462 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 135 deg 039 kt
G. 23 deg 021 nm
H. 1003 mb
I. 17 C/ 1526 m
J. 19 C/ 1519 m
K. 17 C/ NA
L. OPEN NW
M. C15
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF305 0306A FRANKLIN OB 11
MAX FL WIND 56 KT SE QUAD 00:04:20 Z
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Quote:
old data?
URNT12 KNHC 230204
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 23/01:48:30Z
Well that would be from almost 9pm CDT tonight, and I've never seen a pressure as low as 1003, only 1007, so probably -- new data.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Storm FRANKLIN: Observed by AF #305
Storm #06 In Atlantic Ocean
Total Flights For Storm #06: 03
Date/Time of Recon Report: July 23, 2005 01:48:30 Zulu
Position Of The Center: 28 ° 11 ' N 076 ° 22 ' W (28.18° N 76.37° W )
Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of 850 Millibars: 1462 Meters (Normal: 1457 Meters)
Maximum Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 0 Knots (0 MPH)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured At: N/A Nautical Miles (N/A miles) From Center At Bearing °
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 039 Knots (44.85 MPH) From 135°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 021 Nautical Miles (24.15 Miles) From Center At Bearing 23°
Minimum Pressure: 1003 Millibars (29.617 Inches)
Maxium Flight Level Temperature / Pressure Altitude Outside The Eye: 17°C (62.6°F) / 1526 Meters
Maximum Flight Level Temperature / Pressure Altitude Inside The Eye: 19°C (66.2°F) / 1519 Meters
Dewpoint Temperature / Sea Surface Temperature Inside The Eye: 17°C (62.6°F) / NA°C (NA°F)
Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being: OPEN NW
Eye Form Was Characterized As Being: C15
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 850 Millibars
Navigational Accuracy Measured At: 0.02 Nautical Miles
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At: 3 Nautical Miles
Other Information:
1: Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 56 KT SE Quadrant at 00:04:20 Z
1:48 zulu time = 9:48 EDT
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
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I might be seeing things, but the low level swirl of clouds for Framklin looks like it's moving southwest the last hour or so
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellit...amp;duration=10
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RJB
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Floridacane
Weather Guru
Reged: Sat
Posts: 110
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
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Here's a pretty good link to understand the types of models that are out there.
http://www.hurricanealley.net/hurmdls.htm
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What's brewin' everyone?
Lori
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Margie -- well, it's not really over Emily right now. There are certainly people tracking it to the end of its lifecycle (using mainly GOES-10 instead of GOES-12 now for satellite imagery), but the main reason why floater is still over the western Gulf is that they can be slow in changing the floater locations for new situations. It's about in the right spot for the NW Carib. disturbance to appear in it soon, so I don't imagine they'll be shifting it too much in the near-future.
Phil -- at this rate, maybe you need a caricature for the "Lil' Phil" persona as your avatar!
Recon data -- that'd be new data. The Melbourne radar hints at an eye-like structure, but I didn't run with it because it's on the far edge of the radar and without being able to see to the east, it's tough to make that call. Obviously, recon has it much better. The convective pattern is still somewhat disorganized, but the surface circulation is still there. It's trying to get its act together, possibly even reforming a little to the SE like some have suggested (though that might be partly a visual trick due to the convective pattern). Like last night, I expect we'll see some better organization as we all wake up for the weekend.
NW Carib. disturbance: here's a snippet from the 10:30p ET --
"UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION..."
Don't see that wording all too often with developing tropical systems. I don't expect this recon mission to be cancelled, unfortunately, and we might have something by the end of the day Saturday...depending on how well-organized it is once it emerges into the Bay of Campeche.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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