Katie
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 167
Loc: Winter Haven, FL
|
|
Great! Thank you.
|
Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
|
|
On 92L, I don't see any immediate organization. The north half of the wave is getting badly sheared, the system is moving fast (20 mph), and a large ULL is positioned N-NW of the system. Not to mention, part of the wave will be traveling over Hispanola. I don't think the environmental conditions will be favorable until it reaches the eastern Bahamas, probably in another 48 hours. I doubt the RECON flight will go today unless something rapidly develops.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html
--------------------
RJB
|
Ryan
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
|
|
so are we still expecting a Florida landfall on 92L?.and if so, what do people predict on the strenght?
Ryan, please see post 45952 on page 3 of this thread...
--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.
Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back
Edited by LI Phil (Fri Jul 29 2005 10:55 AM)
|
Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
|
|
Was noticing a little something in the 7/28 12Z run that reminded me of JB's comment of a home grown storm developing in the NE Gulf this weekend. That run quickly develops a little system and sends it in around, of course, Mobile/Pensacola area early next week. I think my short term attention might be on the NE Gulf.
EDIT: Corrected my lack of directional sense. East, West, whats the difference? 
Edited by Rasvar (Fri Jul 29 2005 11:01 AM)
|
HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
|
|
everything secondary to 92L and the close-in stuff this post.
92L still appears to have a weak SFC low attached to a trough, with the convection strung out sw/ne along it. it's moving into the virgin islands... if there's something classifiable this afternoon we'll know as recon and san juan radar will be on it. track wnw towards the bahamas looks good with this feature. ridging is trying to build near/south of it presently.
three areas near the u.s. that will need to be watched.. how they play off of the pattern or each other varies from model to model.
that feature that was supposed to appear near the bahamas magically did early this morning.. wouldn't be surprised if they divert recon to make a pass through it this afternoon. some deep convection is firing along it, and the curvature from the surface trough is still apparent. anticyclonic ridging behind the weak upper low near the florida straits has this thing looking like a late-blooming troublemaker this morning. since it's acquiring definition early and the mid-layer ridge appears to be partially intact.. it may move nw/wnw towards florida. whether it moves n near the east coast or over the state is iffy... but if this thing starts developing watch things get hectic in fl this weekend.
the cousin of this thing is up over nc... the disturbance that was supposed to be there doesn't seem associated with the bahamas feature at all as i was earlier reckoning... it's a wave on the dying front. already some deep convection around hatteras, with the circulation over eastern n.c.... what appears to be an open frontal wave. it's getting a little sw shear, which should lull ahead of the next shortwave. this may be a hybrid/conversion system off the virginia capes this weekend.
still a mix on what models want to do in the gulf. the feature that has been appearing near the la coast may in fact be related to the bahamas wave.. or a propagation of it. could also just be a function of convergence with the 500mb weakness which is going to start backing towards texas. nothing there yet, and for something to be there it would have to collect at least some distance offshore.
the other features out there don't look to be in play. 93L has lost a lot of its definition, the wave behind it is low-amplitude, low-latitude. bastardi mentions activating the westpac.. with negative there should be some backing in the deep tropics, but generally when the westpac is active the north atlantic slows down. early august will probably be slower than july, unless the normal relationships don't hold up. when that pulse gets into our part of the globe mid-late month all hell may break loose again. it isn't a strong wave regardless, but even a little activity should work to cluster activity... create flurries and pauses.
should be a very interesting weekend.
HF 1620z29july
|
Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
|
|
Thanks for the update Hank. I always appreciate hearing your views on the tropics. The feature in the Bahamas caught me off guard this morning.
|
Steve H1
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 309
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
|
|
Yeah, the also mentioned it, but it would have to slow considerably if it wants a window of development. 12Z still shows no development in the tropics, at least in the short term (only out to 96 right now), and shows no ridge to speak in the east. It does show troughiness along the east coast due to frontal sag, but it keeps the trough there way too long IMO. 92L will have to develop under moderate sheaar until the ULL moves SW away from it. I don't agee with JB and his idea of it getting into the GOM through the straits. That would really surprise me. Now it could get into the GOM, but probably by going through the peninsula. Tropics are interesting but nothing besides Franklin is there yet. Dunno what to make of it all, but things could change in a hurry. Cheers!!
|
Ryan
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
|
|
i agree with steve i dont think 92L will go thrr the straits of FL, but it could go thru the FL peninsula unfortunaltey, then into the gulf where it sold strenghten or weaken and landfall or not landfall, only time will tell my friends
.Ryannn
--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.
Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back
|
Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 90
Loc: Deltona, FL
|
|
Can someone look at this link and tell me what to make of it? Is there something on there that looks bad?
web page
--------------------
I survived Jeanne, Charley, and Frances
|
Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
|
|
Bahamas feature looks like it's trying to build in amplitude and maybe even close off a circulation, but the outflow boundary coming out of the convection to the SW right now doesn't bode well in the short term. It needs the upper pattern to stay as it is to have a shot; if either of the upper-lows on either side start to approach the system and erode the mid/upper-level shortwave ridge it is currently under, it'll probably fade.
I'm not as bullish on 92L being classified today, however. The area of low pressure is broad, elongated NE-SW, and relatively disorganized -- much like the convection -- and there are little or no banding features or concentrated convection in association with the feature. Recon may find a closed circulation today, but my belief is that it'll be too weak for classification. It's going to be a close call for this one as to whether or not it misses the Greater Antilles or plows into them; the flow pattern would suggest a weak storm (i.e. not influenced greatly by the upper-lows to the northeast and northwest) would pass near or over them, while a stronger storm would likely miss them by a bit to the north. Part of it also depends upon whether or not the circulation consolidates to the north of the islands or to the south -- still don't know what'll happen there. Given the current environment, I'd imagine the former (near/over the Greater Antilles) is more likely. Nevertheless, some slow development is possible over the weekend...just not explosive into a monster by any means.
93L and the wave behind it aren't threats for development in the short-term. I missed 93L -- thought it'd develop -- but it got caught up by some drier air and increased shear. It still has a shot further west, but it's a couple of days away from doing anything significant.
Any other close-in development is still a few days away or will likely not be of a tropical nature, along the lines of what HF mentioned.
--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
|
lawgator
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 75
Loc: E C Fla.
|
|
I kind of started the bad posts in this thread and wanted to take a moment to apologize to anyone I offended. I really did not mean to attack the posters. But, I was being extremely sarcastic about the substance of the critters posts and it would surely seem that way, in retrospect. I love this site. Such great information. Sorry I got carried away.
Now for an on-topic question. As I watch the AVN loop for 92 L, I notice the thunderstorms sort of "chasing" what appears to be to be a mid or upper level low. Its almost as though the t-storms got sheared off of the low and are now trying to build back on. In the alternative, it could be that the low is just racing along too far ahead of the t-storms. I have seen the pattern before in the tropics. Wondering if shear is the issue here and, if so, am I right that it may be weakening to allow more convection?
i thought your post was funny without being mean. wit is just more fun than blunt force hollering and browbeating. folks willing to discuss the merits of drooling dogs and startled parakeets as weather forecasting tools have got to be ready for the occasional aside. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Fri Jul 29 2005 01:14 PM)
|
damejune2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
|
|
I just checked the site and they said that the system behind 92L has pretty much diminshed. They were talking about the shower and thunderstorm activity, but i would assume that means the end for 93L or 94. They didn't mention invest number. They gave coordinates. Anyway, also, the NWS short term forcast for my area is below....they mention 92L crossing Fla and going into GOM.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/TBW/AFDTBW.0507290712
Please DO NOT post entire discussions in the threads. Use a link or HIGHLIGHT specific portions of said discussion as emphasis. Thank you!
--------------------
Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
Edited by LI Phil (Fri Jul 29 2005 01:36 PM)
|
scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
|
|
Well windshear is really keeping 92L from developing. I really dont have anything different to say from Clark. Models on this have been delayed on anything developing. Its hard to tell if the recon will find anything. There is a low there but not organized enough due to the shear. Up to to classify it or not. Still it will become better organized over time.
|
scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
|
|
The area over the se bahamas is associated with a upperlevel low forecasted to move across S Florida on Saturday. No development will happen from this till maybe when it gets into the gulf. Nothing else seems to have a chance for development outside of 92l over the next 2 days.
|
Major7
Weather Watcher
Reged: Wed
Posts: 37
Loc: Hollywood, FL 26.02N/80.20W a...
|
|
Well, some dogs can detect cancer.....
and have a sense of hearing that can hear thunder before humans can....
I also think that dogs may be able to feel the drop in pressure.
Does this make them smarter than the meteorologists? No. (well, maybe smarter than some LOL) But I think that, just like animals can sense an imminent earthquake, it is indeed quite possible that animals can detect other natural phenomenon as well.
--------------------
My experiences:
Betsy 1965~New Orleans (my first)
Alicia 1983~Texas; Opal 1995~Georgia;
Frances & Jeanne 2004~Florida;
Dennis, Eye of Katrina, Eyewall of Wilma~Florida 2005
|
damejune2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
|
|
Sorry about that....didn't know!!
--------------------
Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
|
damejune2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
|
|
Anyone watch JB's video today? I did...he was talking about Typhoons having similar tracks across the lats as the atlantic storms. Also said that disturbance over Bahamas will move into GOM as will 92L. He has also been talking, for days now, about a storm developing off the coast of LA and hitting TX. He also claims a storm will develope off Eastern seaboard near carolinas and head northward. What do you guys think of that??
--------------------
Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
|
jbmusic
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sat
Posts: 42
Loc: Bradenton, Fl
|
|
I usually take what JB has to say and watch it as the days progress. He is real good at seeing what is not there, sometimes what he see becomes visiable to the rest of us and other times it doesn't. He definitly has a different way of looking at things and he is very entertaining while he does it. My advise to you is keeping watching the areas he is pointing out but don't go cancelling plans, because alot of times his theories don't pan out 
|
hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert
Reged: Thu
Posts: 105
Loc: florida
|
|
Intersting wind are gusting to 29 MPH in st.thomas with wind and rain right know this may mean we have a deppression let wait and see what the National Hurricane Center has to say
|
Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
|
|
Rain & 29 mph winds (with no indication of direction, even)? Seems hard to say anything about being a depression or not based solely on those facts. With that wave over the Virgin Islands right now, I'd be surprised if there WEREN'T rain and gusts of at least 20 mph, but that doesn't mean much as to whether it's a depression. Info. on wind direction throughout the region and P.R. satellite imagery would be a lot more helpful.
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
[Re: 
Edit
Reply
Quote
