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Chill falls over the Atlantic as the official season heads towards close
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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
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Reged: Sun
Posts: 4542
Loc: Orlando, FL
Tropical Storm Harvey Forms in Atlantic
      #46350 - Tue Aug 02 2005 06:01 PM

10:30PM Update
Harvey has strengthened a bit out in the atlantic, it's now a 60MPH Tropical storm. Still moving well away from the US mainland. However, Bermuda is under a tropical storm warning and now a hurricane watch in case Harvey makes it to Hurricane status.

Beyond Harvey, we have a wave in the Central Atlantic. if it persists for a bit more, it has the potential, a potential higher than most recent ones, to develop into a Tropical Depression as well.

11AM Update
Tropical Depression #8 is now Tropical Storm Harvey, the earliest H storm on record.

Original Update
Tropical Storm warnings are up for the island of Bermuda, as Tropical Depression #8 forms. If it becomes Harvey, which is likely. It will be the earliest H storm to form in recorded history.

This is destined to be a fish spinner, other than a brief slide by Bermuda. 92L was the wave to win out, not the likely pick. All the other waves have gone away, for the most part. So this is the only action in the tropics right now.



Thankfully, ntohing else seems imminent at the moment, we'll watch the new depression spin fish.

Event Related Links
StormCarib hurricane reports from observers in the Islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports

Color Sat of Gulf
RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Storms


Harvey
Animated Model Plot of Harvey
Model Plot of Harvey (Graphic from the South Florida Water Management District)


Central Atlantic Wave/95L
Animated Model Plot of 95L
Model Plot of 95L (Graphic from the South Florida Water Management District)


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Storm Cooper
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Re: Tropical Depression Eight Forms in Atlantic [Re: MikeC]
      #46354 - Tue Aug 02 2005 06:40 PM

NOAA now calling for 18 - 21 storms this season...WOW!

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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tpratch
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Reged: Fri
Posts: 339
Loc: Maryland
Re: Tropical Depression Eight Forms in Atlantic [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #46355 - Tue Aug 02 2005 07:05 PM

Well, once we get a verified 8th named storm, we'll be over 1/3 of the way to 21, with the height of the season still to come.

I personally think we might have more, but then again, with all the building up, it wouldn't surprise me to see this season fizzle out with less than 15 storms either


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ShanaTX
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 226
Loc: Texas
Re: Tropical Depression Eight Forms in Atlantic [Re: tpratch]
      #46357 - Tue Aug 02 2005 07:39 PM

Wonder what's holding up the advisory... they said in the first one they'd have one at 8 pm AST ... which was 38 min ago.

Unless DST has confused me and it's 22 min till ..

Previous record for 8th named storm ... Aug 15.

'shana


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h2ocean
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 91
Loc: South Merritt Island, FL
East Atlantic Wave [Re: ShanaTX]
      #46359 - Tue Aug 02 2005 08:14 PM

From the 8:05 TWD:

E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W/29W S OF 17N MOVING W 10 KT. A BROAD 1009 MB LOW IS NEAR 11N28.5W ON THE WAVE AXIS. VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A BROAD LOW HAS FORMED BASICALLY WITHIN THE ITCZ THOUGH THERE ARE ONLY A FEW TSTMS. A PLUME OF AFRICAN DUST WRAPS AROUND THE N SIDE OF THE
WAVE N OF 15N E OF THE WAVE AXIS TO 24N. A MAJORITY OF COMPUTER MODELS INSIST ON THE GENESIS OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FROM THIS WAVE BUT THERE IS LITTLE EVIDENCE TO SUGGEST FORMATION IS LIKELY ANYTIME SOON


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MichaelA
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Reged: Thu
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Re: East Atlantic Wave [Re: h2ocean]
      #46364 - Tue Aug 02 2005 09:36 PM

That certainly bears watching, but I agree that development, if any, will be rather slow.

--------------------
Michael

PWS


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
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Re: Tropical Depression Eight Forms in Atlantic [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #46365 - Tue Aug 02 2005 09:40 PM

Quote:

NOAA now calling for 18 - 21 storms this season...WOW!


I guess they thought it appropriate since the season blew half of the original forecast in July alone.
With the peak of the season still a few weeks away, things cold still get a bit dicey. On the other hand, the season may have burned itself out, but that doesn't seem to be climatologically feasible.

--------------------
Michael

PWS


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 944
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Re: Tropical Depression Eight Forms in Atlantic [Re: ShanaTX]
      #46366 - Tue Aug 02 2005 09:58 PM

AST (Atlantic Standard Time) is the same as EDT (Eastern Daylight Time). Also, GMT -4. EST (Eastern Standard Time) is GMT -5 when we're not on DST.

--------------------
Michael

PWS


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NONAME
Weather Guru


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Re: Tropical Depression Eight Forms in Atlantic [Re: MichaelA]
      #46367 - Tue Aug 02 2005 10:22 PM

Now With 8 there now, what do where do u think the next one will form is there any other disturbances out there?

Edited by NONAME (Tue Aug 02 2005 10:23 PM)


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


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Re: Tropical Depression Eight Forms in Atlantic [Re: NONAME]
      #46368 - Tue Aug 02 2005 10:31 PM

Slight chance for the farthest East wave to do something, but not for a few days, if at all.

--------------------
Michael

PWS


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ShanaTX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 226
Loc: Texas
Re: Tropical Depression Eight Forms in Atlantic [Re: MichaelA]
      #46370 - Tue Aug 02 2005 10:50 PM

Ahhh ... I looked up time info and went by what they said for Bermuda which is GMT -3.... they're on ADT. Atlantic Daylight Time. Not AST. Thank you! Wonder why they're using AST... hmmm. TD 8 must be closest to somewhere that's AST not ADT...

Off to go check (early) for the 11pm report and it's up!

Quote:

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph... 55 km/hr... with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours... and the depression could become a tropical storm overnight.




Doesn't sound like they're quite as positive about seein Harvey tonight...

Edited by ShanaTX (Tue Aug 02 2005 10:53 PM)


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HanKFranK
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company [Re: ShanaTX]
      #46373 - Wed Aug 03 2005 12:38 AM

td 8 finally popped out of 92L to keep us some company in the lull. seen comments about the MJO in both an NHC twd yesterday and on the accuwx tropical update, so it ain't just me thinking this break is temporary. the graphic the fill-in for bastardi put up today showed the enhancing anomalies working their way in over the next week or two and really setting up shop late this month. then NOAA had to go put their forecast out ahead of gray... they're talking something 1995-esque. gray ought to be somewhere in their ranges (though he won't give spreads and percentages.. objective numbers). noticed the AP guys have bastardi's threat zones quoted in their article (saw it on fox and cnn today). i put more stock in his numbers than i do in that MIT guy saying hurricanes are getting stronger (flawed, limited data begets spurious conclusions).
not much to disco tonight. fish spinner should be harvey tomorrow. the hurricane hunter will probably find harvey tomorrow if a convective blow-up doesn't get it there via improved satelite appearance. it's in a very narrow support environment and vulnerable; the storm may prove tenacious as franklin did a week ago, however. the forecast track looks reasonable... should be a messy time in bermuda wed/thu. fine scottish weather.
that ITCZ low sw of the cape verdes has all kinds of model support, but i don't see it developing quickly or dislodging itself like the globals are showing. that thing may fester and work its way out... or may play possum for days. the eastpac features have perked up some, so that makes me think atlantic activity should start to reactivate in about a week... and be really cranking around august 20th.
two minor features. a convergence zone continues along the old frontal boundary/weakness under the ridge from east of ga to the central gulf coast. weak model support for low pressure in either of these areas lingering throughout the week. nothing indicates development, however.
HF 0438z03august

Edited by HanKFranK (Wed Aug 03 2005 12:39 AM)


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Bloodstar
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Feature fun and goodness [Re: HanKFranK]
      #46374 - Wed Aug 03 2005 03:32 AM

Well Good ole TD 8 is spinning away, Happily doesn't seem to be a threat to anyone but the fish.

What used to be 93L is trekking along popping up a line of convection, but nothing organized, but I might have to take the fork out of it because it has an opportunity to move into a friendlier environ. nah, leave the fork in it, it's done.

The coulda-woulda been hybrid is still spinning and popping up scattered convection near the center, Probably not an issue, but this year probably doesn't mean certainty. of course, it still has a shot because the water temps where it's located (32N 45W or so) are running a nice warm 26 - 27 degrees, so I'd give it a 1 in 5 chance or turning into something more at this point...

The only other feature, and I'm guessing it's an upper level low would be around 20N 55W so that's probably not going to be a worry anytime soon

Just thoughts on the other goodies out there...

-Mark
(IANAM so, take what I say with several large grains of salt...)

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student


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abyrd
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 62
Loc: apopka
Re: company [Re: HanKFranK]
      #46377 - Wed Aug 03 2005 10:11 AM

Quote:

be really cranking around august 20th.





Great. I've rented a 64 person offshore boat out of port canaveral that day to raise money for the Salvation Army! I knew it was risky, but I thought I'd give it a shot.

If anyone wants to go, there's still room on the boat, just pm me.


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Steve H1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 309
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
Re: company [Re: abyrd]
      #46378 - Wed Aug 03 2005 10:22 AM

Watch the wave SW of theCV begin to take shape today. Nice convection building up away from the ITCZ now. 'tis that time of year....almost. Cheers!!

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ShanaTX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 226
Loc: Texas
Re: Feature fun and goodness [Re: Bloodstar]
      #46379 - Wed Aug 03 2005 10:31 AM

And then there were eight...

Quote:

Tropical Storm Harvey Advisory Number 4 Statement as of 11:00 am AST on August 03, 2005


...Depression becomes eighth tropical storm of the season..




'shana


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leetdan
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 136
Loc: Osceola County
Re: Feature fun and goodness [Re: ShanaTX]
      #46380 - Wed Aug 03 2005 10:53 AM

Quote:

HARVEY IS THE EARLIEST-FORMING EIGHTH TROPICAL STORM ON RECORD. IN
THOSE YEARS THAT HAVE HAD AT LEAST EIGHT STORMS...WHICH IS ONLY
ABOUT HALF OF ALL SEASONS SINCE 1851...THE MEAN DATE OF FORMATION
FOR THE EIGHTH STORM IS SEPTEMBER 29TH.




Wow, almost two full months ahead of the average. SSTs look rather low in the area, and as mentioned this isn't supposed to get much stronger than it is now.

--------------------
[witty phrase here]


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CoalCracker
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
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Loc: Cape Coral, FL
Re: Feature fun and goodness [Re: leetdan]
      #46381 - Wed Aug 03 2005 11:11 AM

.....And the records keep on falling. Let's just pray whatever else spins up over the season doesn't adversely affect anybody anywhere.

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MoparMitch
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 28
Loc: Atlanta, GA
Re: Feature fun and goodness [Re: CoalCracker]
      #46382 - Wed Aug 03 2005 11:30 AM

I am familiar with a lot of the lingo, but this kinda through me for a loop:
"A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 1036Z INDICATED A LARGE AREA
OF UNFLAGGED 30 KT WINDS..."

What is meant by UNFLAGGED and FLAGGED winds?

PS - You may not have remembered, but I posted some comments (around the first week of June) about the correlation between an active Tornado season and an active Hurricane season. Either this is a fluke or it may have some truth to it. I am very aware that there are about a thousand other factors, but I will continue to document this and see if it holds true for future seasons.

Although I do not post very often, I greatly appreciate your work here!

Mitch...


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tpratch
Moderator


Reged: Fri
Posts: 339
Loc: Maryland
Re: Feature fun and goodness [Re: MoparMitch]
      #46383 - Wed Aug 03 2005 11:43 AM

Have to go with a copy/paste since this came from a pdf...

"A range check of realistic wind directions (0 to 360°) and wind speeds (< 40 m s-1) is also performed. This latter check may highlight realistic extreme winds; thus, WOCE-MET personnel visually verify all flags added by the automated quality control.

Visual inspection of the data, though time consuming, is essential. The analyst adds flags for spikes, known instrument malfunctions, discontinuities, and values that are highly inconsistent with the surrounding trend. This latter contingency requires knowledge of the behavior of wind data from vessels and is subjective. Automated tests for discontinuities and spikes are available (Vickers and Mahrt 1997), but we find visual inspection to be adequate. Based on 82 ship months of automated meteorological true winds, the two-level quality control applies flags to an average of 5% of wind speeds and 6% of wind directions. On some vessels, the visual inspection determines that all true wind directions and speeds are incorrect. Removing or correcting these flagged true wind values is essential before performing any application using the data.

The two-level quality control employed by WOCE-MET has proven invaluable. For two of the four vessels reporting all values necessary to compute true winds, the visual inspection allowed the analyst to determine that the platform wind direction was reported opposite the desired meteorological direction.
"

Unflagged sounds (based on the above) to be removal of flags from data proven to be correct. So if it is flagged because it may not appear to be accurate, unflagged means it has been verified correct, or not subject to any known model/scan bias.

Any mets want to correct this?


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