CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Israel
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Scatt Satallite suggests the low is to the northwest side of the convection.
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Quickscat data indicates closed low and IR sat loop indicates that this is on the verge of at least being a depression in my opinion....
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/eatl-ir4-loop.html
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/storm_at_image21/latest_at_1.html
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HanKFranK
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i didn't think we'd see anything try to crank in the eastern atlantic. that's acting up either in spite of generally negative conditions or maybe the suppression is lessening. 95L had enough model support but i and everybody else who commented the other day didn't expect anything this soon. even said the models development of the feature was questionable. but there it is... bulging off the with strong convergence at the surface and divergence aloft... the upper trough ahead of it seems to be sliding west (seeing as the feature that was chopping up harvey has broken down and the tendency is to replace it). this defies my timetable of nothing this week, things starting back late next week through mid-month. of course the beneficial conditions seem to not be doing much in the westpac.. one typhoon presently after two or three storms as of late.. and now there's a centpac depression and a persistent disturbance in the eastpac that's almost out the window. i've got a hunch it will do more in the atlantic.
so anywho... here's the take: harvey entrained a bunch of dry air thanks to that upper low jamming all of its subsidence into the storm's core. harvey looks subtropical, but is really just a choked tropical system. it was probably at tropical storm strength overnight or even yesterday afternoon... multiple centers or no. should move very close to bermuda and they'll get a squall or two in the core, some gales.. then harvey drifts on by and gets caught and yanked out into the north atlantic over the weekend. trough trailing behind harvey will have to be watched, but probably not do anything.
95L has the look we like to talk about. lots of low level convergence and an increasingly discrete low pressure area bulging off the . there's a convective pulse gaining on the low from the rear and a trough-low in the a couple hundred miles to the southwest... all of this should keep the development pace slow to modest... 12-24 looks good for a depression and 24-48 for a storm. systems forming this far east usually recurve and this one probably will also. several of the globals show it going up between 50-60w next week. how much of a weakness harvey leaves and whether the 500mb ridge builds with it off africa could determine whether it stays more to the south, but i'd just as soon call it a fishspinner.
i've noticed that late period depicts a strong subtropical ridge across the atlantic... follow ons may get further west if this verifies. i'm uncertain as the extended forecast indicates strong ridging in the central/eastern u.s. (which implies troughing somewhere off the east coast, usually). latter half of august is probably going to be hectic.
HF 0039z04august
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
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Loc: Polk County, Florida
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At the rate we are going, the storms will have names before they leave the African Continent. Hopefully they will all get swept up to the north before making it to the 50W. I just as soon have a record year of named storms that did not bother anyone. The first 7 were plenty.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
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Quote:
Do you have a link for that sattelite Ron? thanks
Sorry for the delay - u may have grabbed it from other posts but here is the euro SAT - its only on 6-hour intervals
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/eatl-ir4-loop.html
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RJB
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Florida
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95L first Model runs, ships being it to a cat 1in 96 hours not sure about that yet..
95L
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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
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Interesting that the global models are sorta split on the path of 95L. , which has the best track record so far this year, builds a fairly strong Atlantic Ridge to the north of the storm and takes it due west on a more southerly track while the and UKMET recurve toward the northwest at about 50W, following weakness left by Harvey.
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RJB
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CoalCracker
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Cape Coral, FL
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I'm with you, Gup. May they all be fish spinners and not bother anyone anywhere. I had my fill of playing "duck and cover" last year.
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JG
Weather Hobbyist
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Hank, thank you in advance for all your postings, from a long time lurker.
I wonder if the relationship to the position of this storm and where formed last year could give us any type of climatological basis for any clues to the path of 95_L???
I know that conditions are different, but many of us in Florida are paranoid now about every storm forming anywhere south of 30 degrees N..... 
if i had to make an early comparison on this thing i'd cross it between alberto 2000 and 2004.. assuming it gets going. how much of a wake harvey leaves and whether or /ukmet/euro are on the ball will also factor in. i'd say the track is too far to the north based on what usually happens. climo favors this thing recurving, though, if it develops east of 40w. by the way, don't want thanks.. this is a hobby related to my study/potential career. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Thu Aug 04 2005 01:55 AM)
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
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The best track record so far this year so far has been the follow by
, The last run still shows it turning north. Think if it develops fast then then it will take a Northern path slow may be close to East coast.
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Actually, much as I'd not like to say it because we run it, the hasn't done well on track or intensity this year. It does well for genesis -- even overdoing it sometimes -- but it's best left to other models right now for track and such. You're probably thinking of the Superensemble, an entirely different product, which is up there with the on track forecasts.
NOGAPS keeps the disturbance pretty weak, potentially contributing to a more westward motion. It actually doesn't show nearly as favorable conditions for development in the middle-range, so it'll be interesting to see how things pan out. There are obstacles ahead of this disturbance, making the ultimate call on what happens a factor of whether or not the ridge moves with the system and provides for favorable development conditions.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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Wonder if 95L will be a TD tonight? Looks very impressive this far out in atl... Looks better than harvey on sats, but i haven't looked at the surface too much yet. I am not sold yet on there being a much weakness from Harvey left over and if the subtropical ridge builds up with the atlantic high, well more records could be on the way. I just looked at the Meteosat-7 Infrared Satellite Data and appears there may be one or two more waves fixing to come off africa and then maybe a break for a few days.....
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Thu Aug 04 2005 02:13 AM)
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
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My fault I was thinking of Superensemble but typed , guess at 77 not as sharp as I use to be. Being an old Navy man used NOGAP and the model before NOGAP, I did find does have a bias in early Runs even at Sea we use to see that a lot It tends to put to much into a High with a left bias..
Dave
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Navy had 95L at 20kts-1009mb on sat scans at 2300 on 2005.08.03....with SSMI sat.
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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well not tonight
AL
----1030 PM EDT WED AUG 3 2005 ----
....A LOW PRESSURE CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING A
LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ABOUT 400 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM
IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Thu Aug 04 2005 02:25 AM)
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Looks like the best wave coming off Africa I've seen so far this year.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Maryland
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Quote:
95L
Got a quick question for Old Sailor: I've seen things these model graphics at linked to before, but I can't seem to find anywhere at the site where they list the model graphs they have, so unless someone posts a direct link here I can't get to them. Got a URL? Thanks!
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Maryland
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NHC released their 11:00 a half hour early:
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING A
LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ABOUT 400 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM
IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Florida
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The SWMFD does the plots infor on model runs are supplied by a number of Colleges, USF Penn State, Wisc U. etc the listed modle runs as below
000
WHXX01 KWBC 040038
CHGHUR
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....
National Hurricane Center NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL952005) ON 20050804 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050804 0000 050804 1200 050805 0000 050805 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.3N 29.3W 12.7N 31.4W 13.2N 33.8W 13.8N 36.5W
BAMM 12.3N 29.3W 12.7N 31.5W 13.0N 34.0W 13.5N 36.7W
A98E 12.3N 29.3W 12.6N 31.4W 13.0N 33.8W 13.6N 36.5W
LBAR 12.3N 29.3W 12.5N 31.7W 13.0N 34.7W 13.8N 37.9W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 40KTS 47KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 40KTS 47KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050806 0000 050807 0000 050808 0000 050809 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.6N 39.0W 16.0N 43.2W 17.5N 46.8W 19.8N 49.9W
BAMM 14.1N 39.3W 15.1N 43.6W 16.7N 46.8W 19.4N 49.4W
A98E 13.8N 39.4W 14.9N 44.3W 15.2N 49.2W 15.1N 53.6W
LBAR 14.4N 41.4W 15.6N 48.1W 15.0N 53.2W 19.1N 51.3W
SHIP 52KTS 61KTS 65KTS 65KTS
DSHP 52KTS 61KTS 65KTS 65KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.3N LONCUR = 29.3W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 12.1N LONM12 = 27.5W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 11.9N LONM24 = 24.8W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....
Dave hope this helps
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Maryland
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I was refering to a list of the plot graphics they had actually. Can't find it on 's site anywhere. (Even did a google search with site: defined!)
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