Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
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SFWMD web site doesn't show much but if you looking for all there model runs check web site below.........
SFWMD MODEL RUNS FOR ALL ACTIVE AND INVEST
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NONAME
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 136
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95L look organized pertty good. I Say we will have a TD by the days over or tommorow morning?
04/0530 UTC 12.4N 31.5W T1.0/1.0 95 -- Atlantic Ocean
T1 25 KTS 29 MPH
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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 330
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida
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Does look like its getting its act together this morning......Weatherchef ..... web page
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NONAME
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 136
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Ya look like it should be a TD soon But is could head south or be a fish spinner but we will have to wait till it forms to know anymore.
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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
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5:30 a.m. says a tropical depression could form later today...95L. What do you guys think?
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NONAME
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 136
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I think that is really possible. It looks like it strarting to spin on IR but i'm not sure wouldn't surprise me if we see it today or tonight I would be really suprised if 95L didn't devlop. Also can someone give me a Satellite view of africa.
Edited by NONAME (Thu Aug 04 2005 09:43 AM)
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Fletch
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 121
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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Here is the Africa SAT
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/metsat7ir.html
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Irwin M. Fletcher
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NONAME
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 136
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Thank for the sat it a good one. Doesn't look like to much over africa?
Also I just watched the tropical update on the weather channel and they said that it look like it was Intensifying and it very close to TD.
Edited by NONAME (Thu Aug 04 2005 09:54 AM)
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Fletch
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 121
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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Quote:
5:30 a.m. says a tropical depression could form later today...95L. What do you guys think?
Looking at the Vis Loop on Floater 2, I would say we should have TD by the 5:00 PM.
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Irwin M. Fletcher
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NONAME
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 136
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I have this wrote above but though i would write it with some other stuff
I think that is really possible. It looks like it strarting to spin on IR but i'm not sure wouldn't surprise me if we see it today or tonight I would be really suprised if 95L didn't devlop. Also the weather channel said it was intensifying and said it was very close to a TD it could form very soon also it has t-number of 1.0 the last time i look and that is 25 knot wind which is 30mph. It could form I say from the next couple of hours to 36 hours but I am sure it going to devlop.
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Steve H1
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 309
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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Yes, I think this will be classified by tonight. No real rush though, as it is way out in no mans land with the exception of ships. Think this will miss the trough tail of Harvey and will have to be watched down the road; at least this one or the one behind it (further to the SE). Dr. Gray's numbers (updated) are amazing. Never seen him go this high before, as stated in his update. Love this sentence "This is valid methodology provided the atmosphere continues to behave in the future as it has in the past." That is the crux of it. "We have no reason for thinking that it will not," is added, but it is by hindcast skill that makes predictions possible. What lies ahead 
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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The models on 95L are telling us that a weakness will develop between the two Atlantic Ridge Axes and the system which will develop, will be pulled north in the next 72 hours...the only way it does not do that is if it remains weak and disorganized for the next two days and then develops which will bring it west further and under the western ridge and then it will have a more western solution...
As for the increase in numbers: it is essentially the earlier number plus what has occured adjusted for what normal activity in the early season should have allowed...Tropical Storm Risk will update on the 7th and I am interested in their update as much of the final evaluations will be based on the July patterns as they actually developed.
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doug
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
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Really spinning up out there. Starting to get some good ventilation on the west side. And there is a definite cyclonic turning.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-vis-loop.html
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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NONAME
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 136
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I would say it is a TD by now I'm suprised they haven't called it yet on or anything else.
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NONAME
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 136
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
000
ABNT20 KNHC 041505
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT THU AUG 4 2005
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE National Hurricane Center IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM HARVEY...LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA.
A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED
ABOUT 575 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SATELLITE
IMAGES AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY BE
FORMING AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE
WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.
FORECASTER AVILA
$$
Yep so i Guess that they will have advisorys tonight
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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The latest picture posted on a visual suggests to me it is not classifiable yet...the banding features especially on the west and south are not all that clear yet...looks like banding is trying to begin on the north...maybe by 5 p.m.
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doug
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AgentB
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 188
Loc: Winter Park, FL
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Quote:
Also the weather channel said it was intensifying and said it was very close to a TD it could form very soon also it has t-number of 1.0 the last time i look and that is 25 knot wind which is 30mph.
The last reading I found was 11:00UTC(8AM EDT?), and it was T1.0/1.0(25kts/29mph). Looks like it's trying to get its act together more and more though. Like others have said, seeing some decent circulation, and once it gets to about 40W the water starts to warm up just a bit more.
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Check the Surf
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SC Bill
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 24
Loc: South Carolina
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Sorry, I must have missed this somewhere. Where are Dr. Gray's updated numbers??
Thanks.
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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on the main page you will find the link
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doug
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CDMOrlando
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 57
Loc: seminole cnty florida
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Quote:
Sorry, I must have missed this somewhere. Where are Dr. Gray's updated numbers??
Thanks.
Published dates for update of Dr. Gray's forecast.
"We will be issuing seasonal updates of our 2005 Atlantic basin hurricane activity forecast on Friday 5 August, Friday 2 September and Monday 3 October 2005."
When published it can be found at
web page
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