Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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I thought a m/s was equal to 1 mph, no?
meter per second -HF
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
Edited by HanKFranK (Fri Aug 05 2005 01:42 AM)
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damejune2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
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It's best to wait and see what the next few days brings with TD#9.
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Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
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Clark
Meteorologist
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1 m/s is about 2.237mph. Straight-up conversion...3600 seconds in an hour, ~1600 meters in a mile; multiply by the 3600 and divide by the 1600. Thanks to Mark/Bloodstar for correcting me on the meters vs. yards in a mile issue.
The is showing why we don't use 16 day model runs to forecast tropical cyclones. You'd be much better off going with climatology at that rate...truthfully, beyond 7 days you would be. Just watch it for now and don't worry about what the long-range says: there will be plenty of time to prepare should it become necessary.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
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Edited by Clark (Fri Aug 05 2005 03:53 AM)
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
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Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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The storms keep on coming. Seems like there is never a break of more than a day or two. Climatology says normally by August 4th we have had only 1 storm and no hurricanes until August 14th. WOW!!!!
(off topic material removed)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Fri Aug 05 2005 04:46 PM)
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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She looks good so far.I quess our little break is over.And it looks like more are behind it.Here we go again.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 318
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I got a bad vibe too when I walked out to my car and read the first three numbers/letters of my license plate...95L.
Seriously, if Depression 9 was to reach the U.S. coast how many days before that would happen?
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ralphfl
Weather Master
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Maryland
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Yep Ralph.
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Just a note, Gray's updated seasonal forcast is out:
http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2005/aug2005/
It's dated Aug 5th, but given that's not for another 15 minutes, I guess he released it early 
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Edit: the post I replied to has been sent to the Graveyard. But, the points I make towards the storm maintaining itself stand and, unless another moderator feels the need to move this post as well (which if so, by all means go ahead!), I'll keep these comments here. --Clark
Ralph, you could be right. This storm could dissipate, or it could move north (or reform north). They can find the center -- they just don't know if it is elongated or not right now. That's partially because you can't see through clouds, we don't have visible satellite imagery overnight, and the microwave imagery can't necessarily see the surface reflection.
However, there is a lot of evidence against that.
1) Model guidance to this point has been consistent in tracking an entity across the Atlantic. Just because some models in one run do not does not mean that you or anyone should jump on that bandwagon. As someone said earlier, it is consistency we are looking for with the models.
2) Models for systems well out in the Atlantic (and for tropical cyclones in general) often do not capture storms very well during their formative stages, due in large part to their formative nature plus the lack of data out over the oceans. Despite all of the satellite & remotely sensed data we have available to us nowadays, a lot of it does not get input into the computer models due to computing power restrictions & the uneven spacing of the data causing havoc with the models. Further, there has been many a storm in the record books that was not accurately captured by the model guidance at some point(s) in its lifetime. These include many of the strongest storms out there. An overwhelming majority of the models called for this storm to develop and they have been right. Time will tell as to what happens from here.
3) The guidance is for a hurricane in three days. They are the ones getting paid the big dollars to make forecasts, the ones who make key decisions to help protect life and property, and the ones who have been doing what they do for many years. They will get one wrong every-so-often, but it is rare to see these storms behave in such a fashion towards dissipation.
4) All trends for this disturbance have been to keep taking it to the west-northwest and to have it become better organized. Given favorable SSTs, a developing outflow pattern, and organization about the center of the convection, what is going to keep it from developing? The cautions that it may occur slower than forecast initially, but that -- in their eyes and in mine -- only delays the inevitable.
5) Climatology says that storms in this region develop and that they don't dissipate. Given above normal climatological parameters and the aforementioned favorable conditions, there is currently no reason to go against climatology.
6) As they develop, weak systems often undergo many bouts of reformation and hiccups in the development process. Emily was a case of this occurring, all the way through the Lesser Antilles. Interestingly enough, a weaker storm at this point is going to travel more towards the west, making it an even greater threat to land down the line than if it develops sooner.
7) News often does go by the motto "if it bleeds, it leads." Despite that, something bad happening is going to draw more attention than something good happening. People want to know what is going on and then how to protect themselves from it occurring to them. They want to know the news of the day, and unfortunately we live in a world where crimes are prevalent. I don't know where you are, but where I am and in all of the locations I have ever been, there is always time in the media -- TV, print, Internet, radio, and otherwise -- for good stories. They just don't carry the same weight as the others because they don't affect as many people. Take that as you may.
8) No one is hyping this storm to be the next big storm. In fact, the reactions of many here today have been subdued. It is one to watch for future development. It has the chance to impact land down the line -- it also has a chance to go out to sea. We don't know yet. The models can't tell us yet. Simply put, it is one to watch over the next week.
The tropics have impacted many, many people over the past year, past five years, past fifty years, and as such, people are always going to be interested in everything out there. We will watch it to see if it develops, if it dissipates, whatever...but people are always going to be talking about it. That's what this forum is for and why we are all here. I apologize if you happen to disagree with that mantra.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
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Jeffmidtown
Weather Guru
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Posts: 132
Loc: Atlanta, Ga
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Hey everyone from here in Megalanta...lol
Looks like after the brief but albeit needed respite from landfalling tropical storms and flooding, looks like we are in for an interesting 2nd week of August.
Off topic a bit but of note is a story in today's Atlanta Journal Constitution about last year and how there was a 91 foot wave recorded.
http://www.ajc.com/news/content/news/science/0805/07waves.html
It'll probably be in other papers today or over the weekend but an interesting read. Take care everyone as I'm dodging lightning bolts here in Atl right now.....
Jeff
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You know it's a bad day.....when you wake up and see Jim Cantore and Geraldo Rivera broadcasting from your backyard....literally!
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ralphfl
Weather Master
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Posts: 435
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The thing is there are post ALREADY talking about a poss hit on the east coast of Florida 6 days out.
I have no doubts this is going to turn into some type of storm and i dont think its going to disapate but people talking aready about where it is going to hit is insane.
You cannot say Florida is more in line for this storm or New york but what gets me is many people dont have a clue like some of us about storms and they hear some idiot say 6 days out WATCH OUT JACKSONVILLE some people are so in fear they leave 5 days ahead of time.
I know 2 people who left my area cause they READ a storm was coming this way only to run right into the middle of it anbd get killed.
So im kinda sensative when people start A week ahead of time forcasting where they think it might hit.To say the Est coast US is in danger of this storm is stupid casting its worth waching but when you read the posts of i got a bad feeling about a storm that is still a depression is stupid.
Or the watch out Jacksonville area cause a model has it there 6 days out is stupid.
Heck last year i liked it when they had it coming right over me 5 days out as it almost never goes where they have it going.
So that only shows anything more then saying lets watch it is wishcasting since you cannot give any data that shows a high probability of it hitting any area.
Sure we can say "i think" but as we say around here that was your first mistake you started thinking.
You know when we will know where this storm is going to go? when it gets there or close to there and they issue a warning then we will know.
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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Great post Clark,I will be looking forward to listening to you in the furture,as we go through a time that is very scary to us who live along the coast.I think it is safe to say,that we are all going through something that we have never had in our life times.Keep up the good work,we need you and others in here at times like this.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Ralph, I understand your concerns. However, I have yet to see a post here today that says it is going to hit Jacksonville in anything other than a very sarcastic manner. Posts that got out of hand were dealt with by the moderators. Obviously it is irresponsible to say that a storm is going to hit anywhere 16 days out. Yes, people are going to look at the guidance; I'll admit it took a look at it myself. But, no one is suggesting that it is going to hit there...just that it is an "interesting" solution and should be watched. If it looks like the storm has a greater chance of recurving out to sea, you'll see that reflected in the nature of the blogs & posts here and elsewhere. Post quantity may go down, but that's only because the storm will not pose a threat to the area that many people are from -- the SE US -- and thus the need for information and desire to learn more about the storm is not as great.
We cannot account for people who choose to react in a certain manner to something poster here, no matter how credible or not it may be. I certainly hope that no one is using any of my forecasts for anything more than guidance! I try to let everyone know my thinking on a storm, but I am a firm believer in following the authorities, from watching a storm to being prepared for a storm to evacuating if need be at the appropriate time. My thinking -- just like that of anyone here or elsewhere -- should only be used as a tool. I like to try to educate people about the tropics, with a little forecasting thrown in on the side. Since we've had an active season, it's been more of the latter recently. Once the season ends, it'll be almost exclusively the former. I should note in conjunction with all of the above that the disclaimer that comes with the website is that "This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources" and "When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center." It is certainly sage advice.
We will know where the storm is going to go when it gets closer to where it is going to go, that much is obvious. However, we are going to watch it until that point and weigh the possibilities in our heads. There is a possibility it may hit land -- and there is at least an equally likely possibility that it turns out to sea. We don't know yet, but we can see what the weather pattern *might* be like and try to assign some sort of probability to what might happen. That's about all we can do right now, and what I think anyone who is posting their thoughts is really trying to do. Hurricane season is all about being prepared for whatever may come your way. Tracking a storm in the eastern Atlantic is a part of that for many people, and that's why we are here on the boards.
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Bloodstar
Moderator
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Posts: 462
Loc: Tucson, AZ
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To the Mods: I hope you don't mind me attempting to respond to this post and if you want to send this to the graveyard, feel free.
ralphfl:
firstly: if you see people making posts you think are either dangerous or misleading, inform a moderator, They're actually pretty nice people and generally try to keep the fora on topic and focused on what is most important: Our fascination and infactuation with hurricanes. Yes, we're a bunch of hobbiests, and tehre are some posts that spread FUD. But with the Meterologists who take the time out of their day to give us insight and thoughts, and with people with 20+ years of experience tracking storms, it's fairly easy to seperate the wheat from the chaff.
I don't know who posted saying that florida was under the gun, but by all means report him to the mods. We're here to actually discuss ideas and reasoning, not wishcast.
We make it a point to emphesize that the is *THE SOURCE* for hurricane information. We do not feel our ideas are as valid as the most of the time (though every once in a while we can all agree they'll miss something, no one is perfect) We tell people to not depend on us, we can give thoughts, but the is the gospel.
As far as people looking at the models a wek out and trying to spot something. that's part of the fun. to be able to say, "I saw it first" is a nice thought, particularly when you are able to do it more often than not. I know I do it with forming tropical depressions. And I do it for more than simply the thrill of actually predicting something (though it's nice on those rare times when I am vindicated  , but I also do it so I can better understand the storms and maybe in 10 years I'll actually be better than terrible. Other people have their own reasons, but i suspect most of them do it for positive reasons, not to wish death and destruction down upon florida or (pick the city of your choice).
Remember that we're here to have fun as well.
I've said it before, and Ill say it again, if someone posts something you think is out of line, or a wishcast or something designed to spread unfounded fear, let the mods know. Be pro-active and help the mods keep the boards what they're supposed to be. Enjoyable
Take care
-Mark
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
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ralphfl
Weather Master
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Posts: 435
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BTW The 2 00 Runs i just looked at show a north turn.
Now will that happen? dunno that is the latest run from ukmet and the i think it was both 00 runs i looked at show that motion.
But that is not to say if it does not get its act together soon it may as you said stay west but if we are going to use models the latest ones at this moment show the north turn but that is only 2 models.
But people really have no idea what casting does to some people.
3 weeks ago when i forget the storm name was going along, just for heck of it i asked the question about should i go to GA or wait and 3 people said they would cancel the trip.
Owell our church camp went to GA and the whole week we got 1 storm and it was not till friday and lasted 15 mins.
The point is too many people think they know more then the and people wishcast so if by chance they are right they can say "look i told you so"
Heck if i keep saying each storm when its 6 days out is going to hit a certian area im bound to be right sooner or later
Edited by ralphfl (Fri Aug 05 2005 04:45 AM)
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
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The UKMET hasn't performed well this year to my knowledge. Neither has the .
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Ralph, I understand that. Sometimes, it is nice to have some advance warning on these storms, even before the can put that out. You have to take it all with a grain of salt, however. That includes wishcasts, forecasts, and any other kind of 'casts, whether from novice, quasiprofessional, professional, or commercial sources. Some are better than others...some will tell you they are better than others when they are not...and some just try to do their job and realize that there is a greater purpose to it all.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
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ralphfl
Weather Master
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Posts: 435
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Yah canetracker i know if it had it going west then you would say different right?
So i guess the one that has it going west is the one you like right?
So i guess they should just take those 2 models and discontinue them since they have no chance of being right.
or maybe the ones taking it west should be discontinued? no, maybe we should talk about why they're showing what they're showing. you have yet to do something besides imply that other people are inept... but you can't provide any alternative reasoning. you're telling other people that their ideas are crap when you have none of your own. kind of useless on a discussion forum. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Fri Aug 05 2005 07:06 AM)
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orlandocanewatcher
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 16
Loc: E Central Florida
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Can anyone tell me what they expect in Orlando this weekend for weather?? Heard something about a low in the Gulf that may bring lots of rain???
there's a surface trough strung out over the state.. the easterly flow will try to reassert itself in the coming days. should be a slightly more widespread version of the usual florida august shower weather. the low in the gulf is a long way from developing. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Fri Aug 05 2005 07:09 AM)
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FireAng85
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 76
Loc: Mount Dora, FL 32757
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A while back there was a poll asking which name scared you the most and I answered Irene. This storm also gives me a really bad vibe. I'm just a paramedic, what do I know?
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Angie Robertson
OCFRD
"So others may live"
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