Edubrasileiro
Registered User
Reged:
Posts: 2
|
|
What are the potential implications of the shallow system in terms of movement?
|
Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
|
|
LI Phil, you didn't mention the potential development of a TD near the mouth of the Miss River which the mm5 has been persistent with the last several days..There is a convective blow-up this morning in the north-central GOM and I see a hint of a LLC near the mouth of the Miss River from the visible SAT about 100 miles south of Mobile..I see the ULL spinning north of Mobile but I think we may have something interesting here..much closer to home..but we'll just have to wait and see.
--------------------
RJB
|
Steve H1
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 309
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
|
|
Certainly don't bet the house on anything concerning TD # 9. I say this 'cause as soon as I say its done it turns on me! I should know better, but always fall into the trap. If you look at the latest visible loop, TD # 9 is back on a westward track and is looking good. Lets just watch. Damn the models for now!! Cheers!!
|
doug
Weather Analyst
Reged:
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
|
|
Weaker systems are less likely to get pulled north into the weakness in the ridge which has developed due to Harvey...As I understand it, the stronger systems with vigorous circulations tend to slide to the right due to friction and drag factors and that certainly is lessened with a weak system.
TD 9's LLC is clearly on the northern extreme of a pretty deep envelope of moist air to its south and east, and is in a dry pool that may beginning to give way to the moist air...
It is clear if the LLC had stayed near its convection that it began to build yesterday the system would be deepening now.
I am curious though why that last remaing convection shows signs of shear...I can see nothing that would have blown the convection to the SW of the center or caused the LLC to jump NW as it did.
--------------------
doug
|
Rabbit
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
|
|
the upper high is actually collapsing on itself and forcing some northerly shear, probably because of the dry air
|
HanKFranK
User
Reged:
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
|
|
totally different situation than we were looking at last night. we had all sorts of evidence.. appearance and numerous model runs.. backing TD 9 becoming irene and taking one of those interesting tracks that could either recurve or continue west. now we're looking at what the calls a 'disorganized system'. that's their generic phrase for anything that doesn't have a classic healthy appearance... in this case it means there's actually a well defined surface circulation.. not an elongated or multiple-type center... just kinda lost all its convection. it's still over 80-81F SSTs and shouldn't track off of those... its ridging looks weaker but not gone by any means. subsidence in the area is about the only thing i can think of that caused 9L to lose its convection, but whatever the cause it has completely mixed up the forecast path and intensity.
9L ought to blow some more convection before long.. and keep its identity. as a shallower system it should track more westerly... but it should have been doing that already. there is an upper low to its nnw, but that shouldn't be affecting it much yet. nonetheless it has already taken an odd track and that may persist.. if it keeps doing what it's doing, it will move into the open atlantic and only show modest development if at all... as per the official. the other school of thought i'll entertain is that the low level flow kicks in and pushes this sucker more westward, and that the ridge will bridge the weakness to the north. it would have to remain fairly weak for a couple of days for that to happen.
elsewhere harvey has decoupled and won't move much until it redevelops convection. the storm should eventually get carried out... but if it starts to trough out, that wake trough we were thinking about may be in 9L's way. not sold on that just yet.. some models (read ) have shown it trying to back up a little.
interesting activity along the northern gulf/east of florida. there's a weak ( i mean 1017mb weak) low near the miss delta... but some cyclonic curvature and building ridging aloft (max on the upper trough to the north is digging to the west and backing out). there's the mcc core from over florida last night which is drifting near fort pierce, and another trough max just ne of there... then another max east and south of there. with ridging building aloft and convergence at the surface, low pressure development is favored now. the one near the central gulf coast may have land to interfere with it.. but it's further along than anything east of florida. stuff worthy of the s should start to happen in this area over the weekend. not sure what exactly, but any of the listed areas may become a focal point.
there's that other wave east of 9L, but models have largely backed away. it has to get further west to do anything in any case.
HF 1539z05august
|
ralphfl
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 435
|
|
Yah and just yesterday some people were already saying lookout east coast U.S and how it was going to go West and how it was going to be a monster in a few days and on and on and on when in reality when it comes down to the bottom line all you can do is look at the models and make a educated GUESS!!!!
so i guess maybe the ukmet had it right from the beginning but we still will see.
|
damejune2
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
|
|
After reading many of the posts since the 11am update, it almost seems as if some of you are a little upset that this thing may track out to sea....LOL....Never look a gift horse in the mouth!!
--------------------
Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
|
damejune2
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
|
|
Sorry, but i am very superstitious and with everyone questioning why the storm has changed it's track i am thinking we will jinx our selves.
--------------------
Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
|
doug
Weather Analyst
Reged:
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
|
|
HankFank is just doing what he does best. analyze synoptic features pretty darn well to let us know what else may be worh watching.
And Damien, I haven't seen any wishcasting here especially since 11, just some people trying to do what even had trouble doing which is explain as best they can what happened...as Clark said it is something to watch, and have fun trying to explain.
Even the METs (see the Bastardi broadcast today) aren't totally giving up yet on 9L and it being something in the picture for the US in 7-8 days.
edit -- let's not call each other out please. 
Edited by RedingtonBeachGuy (Fri Aug 05 2005 04:23 PM)
|
damejune2
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
|
|
Hey Doug - I know that wishcasting wasn't involved and i am sorry if it sounded that way. I just dont want to be jinxed! BTW - Damian is the correct spelling, with an A instead of E. No problem though, everyone does it, including family!!
Thanks for your post and sorry for the misunderstanding!
--------------------
Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
|
DebbiePSL
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 151
Loc: Saint Marys Georgia
|
|
ralphfl- I have been coming here for a year and although from time to time you might see someone wishcasting it doesn't happen that often. You can go to other sites and you wouldn't believe the wishcasting you see there. I respect the knowledge of the long time storm trackers and mets here and after my experience last year with and Jeanne I will tell you the people here were great. Some of them nailed the storms before even the did.
Edit - try sending PM's to tell folks how you feel.
Edited by RedingtonBeachGuy (Fri Aug 05 2005 05:02 PM)
|
doug
Weather Analyst
Reged:
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
|
|
Damien thanks! We are neighbors I see...Glad you watch this board... it is very up to the minute far ahead of what one can get publically and accurate too.
HankFrank speculated that subsidence may be the culprit in the current 'respirator condition' of TD9, and if you look north to about 26N you may see the cause...it looks like a ULL with associated convective activity around its core and some low level moisture to work with...this looks awfully much like the presentation of Harvey last weekend to me, except the convection is not persisting. It seems to be moving back to the SSW a bit.
From the WV on TD9 however it appears the moisture from the south and east is entraining a bit into where the LLC is and some consolidation of the low level clouds has occurred. It is moving just north of west from about 17.5 north.
It will need about 24 hours of consistent improvement to make it in my opinion, but some signs of life remain...
--------------------
doug
|
DebbiePSL
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 151
Loc: Saint Marys Georgia
|
|
Thanks Redington I will remember that from now on 
|
CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
|
|
Seems to be heading just north of due west at the moment. Its not down and out for the count yet.And the models seem to have been trending southward again except for the wacky .
--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
|
Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged:
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
|
|
Debbie, your post is fine.
Some of you who are new to the site seem to be attempting to Moderate the site with your comments. On we leave that task to the Administrators and Moderators. If you see something that you believe to be inappropriate, just send a PM to one of the site officials and they will take any appropriate action. On this board, we do not slam the poster. Its okay to disagree with a post, but if you do, you must state why you disagree and try to do it in a positive way rather than a negative one.
Wishcasting is not allowed - period. If you comment based on a model output, that is not wishcasting. If you disagree with the model outputs and explain 'why' you disagree with some realistic insight, that also is not wishcasting.
On , the meteorologists and experienced storm trackers base their assessments on their knowledge of atmospheric dynamics. We'll always do our best to let you know if something is heading your way - and most of the time we tend to agree with the guidelines provided by the forecasts. At an age of about 150 years (maybe), Meteorology is a VERY young natural science - and therefore it is a long way from being accurate, so be a little understanding when something doesn't quite pan out as expected. Its still more of an art form rather than a science - but we're working on it and it will require patience on our part - and yours.
Ed Dunham
CFHC Administrator
|
doug
Weather Analyst
Reged:
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
|
|
Here is a theorey on the surprise we all received this morning when we saw what 9L actually looked like:
Perhaps we had the dominant LLC misplaced...I personally thought it was near where some convection fired off yesterday and located at around 12.5 N and just to the east of the larger convective mass. However there did seem to be something just north of that which is why I said it looked elongated, but the convection soon seperated the two areas and it seemed the depression had formed around 12.5 north approx.
What if the exposed center today is what was there to the north all along and has spun out on its own, AND the vortex at 12.5 was not on the surface and was midlevel.
I say that becasue there is still some visual evidence for some vorticity on the east side of the convection at around 12.5, which is getting a little more vigorous again, but as far as I can see no surface reflection..
.If I am right then this was never a depression but only a wave all along.
--------------------
doug
|
VolusiaMike
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 63
Loc: Ormond Beach, FL
|
|
OK, looking at the TPC 72 hour surface forecast for pressures, it looks like they expect TD#9 to sneak through the slight break in the ridge (site link attached). To my untrained eye, that looks like an awful small break in the ridgeline and that the timing would have to be really tight to make all of this fall into place...
What do you folks think?
|
Rabbit
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
|
|
Doug, you seem to be correct, because if you look at the NRL track, you'll notice it has been tracking NW for about 30 hours, and for the last 12, the plots have been north of position, so seems to have been tracking the midlevel circulation; it appears that the sudden northward movement is simply the center becoming visible from underneath the clouds
|
Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged:
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
|
|
Well, you beat me to it - with one wrinkle - I think that what you are seeing now is more of a very well formed and mostly mid-level circulation and that the surface vortex (now rather weak) is located to the SSE. But your analysis seems sound. During the night, northerly shear displaced the convection and perhaps the surface low to the south. Since the system was/is only a TD, its quite likely that the two circulation centers never were fully coupled. Remember that trough off the west coast of Africa that Clark mentioned in his blog? Well that was probably the real culprit for the northerly shear. At any rate the system seems to be heading off to the west northwest again and the shear is less evident, so I'd expect TD9 to regather some convection again. I doubt that the system will fall apart since the circulation envelope is large, but any intensification will take a day or so.
Cheers,
ED
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
