damejune2
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
|
|
You are right, Andrew was fierce and something i hope this state never has to endure again. However, i am with Clark on this - Although Irene may take a similiar path to Andrew, i do not believe that Irene will have the intensity Andrew did. The conditions now compared to those of 1992 are a lot different. We had four major storms strike last year...three right through the middle of the state, so pretty much everyone felt something. For you to keep talking about Andrew and Florida taking a hit is just ludicrous and i think you were warned earlier by a mod. Please stop talking like Florida will take an "Andrew" type hit from Irene.
--------------------
Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
|
Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
|
|
I notice with the latest model runs that the UKMET is the odd model out - seems to be an outlier in taking the storm to Bermuda (maybe the UKMET is just more at home there  ). Anyway, I've been posting since this am about the BAM models shift to the west so perhaps the global models will swing that way. has shifted to the west so maybe we're seeing a trend. The globals such as , , & are behaving rather poorly since they didn't intialize a closed circulation today. I look at the water vapor, and frankly, I don't see anything like a trough to pull Irene northward. In fact, soon she'll be under an upper ridge and this ridge is forecast to build west and north. Looks like east coast of Florida is becoming increasing under the gun. Irene the evil sister of and Jeanne??
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_09.gif
--------------------
RJB
|
damejune2
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
|
|
Ok, that link you posted has two Bam models bringing Irene towards the wsw......i put more stock in and the others than i do Bam. The other models on there bring it more to the west, but not close enough to Fla East Coast.
--------------------
Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
|
Clark
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 1710
Loc:
|
|
Andrew was also 5-6 degrees further south than Irene was at this point and under quite different environmental conditions. Point being, no two storms are alike. There have been many, many other weak storms that came through this particular region and dissipated or recurved...like Erin 2001.
--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
|
damejune2
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
|
|
Clark - Lets say these two guys are right and Irene takes the Bam med model run....looks as though it would go wsw......would it be likely for it to hook back around go northwest through the state or w through the keys? Seems to me if the storm takes that kind of path then i don't see how it could go wsw and then turn back around near H/DR, Cuba and head NW through Fla.......??? 
--------------------
Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
|
Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru
Reged:
Posts: 161
|
|
I am NOT predicting an Andrew hit...only the possiblity of one...if it is alarming to think about it...I'll also put something in there about the odds are infinitesimal for it to occur, which they are...however, I feel global warming and the fact we are in an increased period of activity all warrant looking carefully at these things...I would hate to make people fearful for no reason. I never said an Andrew storm was imminent..only that it is going through the same things Andrew did...but I am a complete novice....
Joe Bastardi was alarmed about it...and that's what I got it from. He noted the
possibilities...and if it makes you fearful, I am sorry...I didn't mean to throw unnecessary anxiety on anyone. I like exploring all the possibilities...but realize inside it could do a lot of things...ya know?
|
Lysis
User
Reged:
Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
|
|
well dude, you just put up the histroy of Andrew, with NO forcasting info about irene. All it was was Andrew... if you don't mean to be an alarmist, don't post stuff like that. I thought we allready went over this.
EDIT: do note that JB also talked about many storms in tandem with Andrew in a similar bust a trof situation. These storms hit all up the eastern sea board… so it was more of a general parallel he was making.
--------------------
cheers
Edited by Lysis (Tue Aug 09 2005 10:37 PM)
|
Big Kahuna
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 52
Loc: DeLand, Florida
|
|
Finished reading the 5PM Discussion from and found it to be very interesting. Alot of words were thrown out like... METAMORPHOSIS, OCCASIONAL, DIFFERENCES... and my favorite which nobody can forget "ASSUME" !  In my opinion or should I say MY GUESSTIMATION im gonna wait couple of days because its still unpredictable, but it is interresting and entertaining. 
|
damejune2
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
|
|
I understand what you are saying and thanks for clarifying. As the disclaimer says on this site - always go with the word of the and i do and they haven't really mentioned anything about Fla being under the gun. They keep mentioning Bermuda, in fact, Bermuda is on the strike possibility list. I do understand that things can change rather quickly overnight, so you are correct, there is a slight possibility that the storm could hit the east coast of fla.
--------------------
Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
|
Ryan
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
|
|
i do not think Irene will be like Andrew at all, i dont think she wil have the strength nor the pressure or time to develope. Im seeing a Carolina's TS-Cat 2
--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.
Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back
|
Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru
Reged:
Posts: 161
|
|
Andrew went from tropical storm to hurricane category 4 in 24 hours
|
damejune2
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
|
|
Ryan - Thanks for the extra assurance, but you cant really say where it's going to go without some hard proof - you dont want to excite/tick off the folks from Carolina. I see what you are saying and even JB said that the Carolinas could be where Irene goes, but at this point we have to wait and see.
--------------------
Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
Edited by damejune2 (Tue Aug 09 2005 10:43 PM)
|
damejune2
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
|
|
Thats correct Rick - Andrew intensified rather quickly and any storm, given the right ingredients, can do that. Warmer water, less shear, etc...could make a TS into a major storm in 24 hrs. Lets hope that does not happen here.
--------------------
Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
|
CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
|
|
Anyone remember Hurricane Lenny? That went from Tropical Depression to a hurricane in like a day. You can't ever tell with storms and their mechanics. They may just rapidly intensify like the dickens out of nowhere. You can never say never with a storm till its long gone.
lenny came up fast.. but the dragged their feet on classifying it. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Wed Aug 10 2005 04:18 AM)
|
Ryan
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
|
|
true damian..i mean this is a "guess-timate" but i mean i see what people are saying now with Andrew becuase Irene, like Andrew is now escaping the shear winds and enteringg even warmer water so i mean we could see rapid intensification..but as JB said, the Carolina's could be where Irene landfalls, but then again i think it was UKMET that has Irene turning out to sea and making a ladfall in Bermuda, i could be mistaken but i think she will most likely take a track relative to or FSU.
--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.
Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back
|
Spoken
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 64
|
|
Quote:
I'm sorry, but the majority of the models for this storm have been useless.
Then how about the 'tawdry romance novel' model? Does it seem as if Irene feels in some way attracted to that little 'social climber' on the south shore of Hispaniola – apparently moving west and growing larger it seems?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html
I noticed however that with Franklin and Harvey their 'errant behavior' seemed primarily due to getting hammered by moist air coming from North America. But such hammering didn't appear to have altered their projected paths – beyond a few squiggles and delays.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/210042.shtml?5day
|
Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
|
|
Quote:
I understand what you are saying and thanks for clarifying. As the disclaimer says on this site - always go with the word of the and i do and they haven't really mentioned anything about Fla being under the gun. They keep mentioning Bermuda, in fact, Bermuda is on the strike possibility list. I do understand that things can change rather quickly overnight, so you are correct, there is a slight possibility that the storm could hit the east coast of fla.
Actually, Bermuda is out of the gunsights according to the latest 5 PM track. It appears the now thinks it may go west of the island. The fun of this site is perhaps beating the to the punch, looking at trends, and using some knowledge of weather to justify your position. Yes, the BAM models have notoriously been bad, but for this system they've actually been the best. Noboby is saying it will hit the EC of FL, but the possibility is alot more than it was just 24 hrs ago. The analogy of Andrew was brought up earlier today by another poster - but it was in respect to the track. I think most METs would agree that this storm is no Andrew but then again, could it become a hurricane and threaten the EC of FL or the US - sure. Heck, we Floridians need to accept the fact that hurricanes will become a part of our lives. Dr Gray has been warning about the increase in storms now for over 10 years. Forget global warming, we are in a warm phase of the AMO that will likely lead to an above average storm seasons for another 10-20 years. Just look to the 1930-40s in FL (another AMO warm phase), u can barely see the outline of the peninsula when the storm tracks are overlaid.
--------------------
RJB
|
oil trader
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 27
|
|
Maybe I am missing something. There is a track on a system called 89. Is it anything to worry about?
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_89.gif
|
Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged:
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
|
|
From TWD (8:05 PM EDT):
"EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING
WEST 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 70W-74W. "
If they are doing model runs on it now, that means it must have enough signature to warrent tracking. Looking at the latest IR loop of the Atlantic it seems that the area around Hispanola has increased convection over the last day, and tightened up over the last couple hours. I wonder if there will be a watch on it in the by midnight.
|
WeatherNut
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
|
|
Earlier today I could almost pick out 3 swirls within the convection. Looking at the satelitte page linked from the it looks like those 3 have started to consoladate to 1, but is the low level center lined up with that swirl? Its hard to tell on the infrared pictures. I'm guessing no real strengthening can happen till they line up. Is that correct?
--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
