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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
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Loc: Orlando, FL
Uncertainty Again with Irene
      #47116 - Tue Aug 09 2005 06:47 PM

7 AM Update
Irene remains a tropical depression, and may still hold that today. When a storm is this weak, the baroclinic models tend to do better (ala BAMM, BAMD, etc) so the westward trend may continue. The edge of the cone is approaching the North Carolina coast, but travels all the way down to Florida and still can support the recurve to sea. In other words, in perspective, the storm is still a depression, but is now on the watch list for the East coast of the United States.

Original Update
Irene, still a weak depression, has survived it's bout of almost falling apart. Giving time for the situation ahead of it to change. Irene will stay north of the Caribbean islands.

The future track has trended toward the west, and it has persisted a bit. Some of the models have fallen in suit, therefor the call of "Out to Sea" is no longer a good call to make.
Currently, the most likely track is out to sea, or near Bermuda. But if the current trends persist that could change as well. The "cone of error" will be very large a few days out, which means it's worth watching again for the east coast.



Originally I expected Irene to gain a bit of strength, it never did, and now it's finally emerging from the more hostile situation, AKA the bad shear zone, it encountered, slightly further west. It has the chance to become a hurricane in a few days as conditions gradually improve for it.
Now it's poised to become a tropical storm by sometime tomorrow.



So beyond a few days, the current forecast track is really complex right now. That's the best way to put it. I'm still finding plenty of ways to keep Irene off the coast, but not as many as even yesterday, but a fair amount. What worries me most is the ridging forecast by some models toward the north, which could force it more west.

So basically, the "all clear" I mentioned in the last update is brought down (always watch the tropics!), and it's now more of a wait and see. If it were to affect land, it is more likely for the Carolinas and points north, but assuming the ridging changes, even further south is still possible. Recurve still remains even higher, assuming Irene can hold together. For Florida, the chance of Irene affecting us is very low, in fact other than watching for trends, I would almost rule it out. The chances grow higher as you get further north, and highest out to sea.

More will be coming as we learn it, but we'll keep watching it to see how the trends persist over the next few days. It's important to note, that Irene still may not survive. It is only a depression at the moment.

Event Related Links
StormCarib hurricane reports from observers in the Islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports

Color Sat of Gulf
RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Storms

Irene
Animated Model Plot of Irene
Model Plot of Irene (Graphic from the South Florida Water Management District)
Quikscat image of Irene
Weather Underground model plots of Irene
Irene Sphagetti Plot from BoatUS


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damejune2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene [Re: MikeC]
      #47122 - Tue Aug 09 2005 06:54 PM

This is a longshot, but do you feel there is a chance at all for Irene to make it into the GOM? I live on the west coast of Florida and most storms that cut through the middle usually go into the gulf and go towards northern gulf coast like Alabama, Miss, Fla Panhandle.....even New Orleans. What do you think of this scenerio? Is it possible Irene could cut a swath through Fla and re-emerge into the GOM?

--------------------
Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)


Edited by damejune2 (Tue Aug 09 2005 06:55 PM)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene [Re: damejune2]
      #47123 - Tue Aug 09 2005 06:56 PM

No, it's too far north now and too far east to do that, and it would go against the recurve, which is what I think it will do, still.

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damejune2
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Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene [Re: MikeC]
      #47125 - Tue Aug 09 2005 06:58 PM

Ok i was just wondering - some on here have talked about the possibility of Irene hitting South Florida...it's a little disheartening, to say the least.

--------------------
Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene [Re: MikeC]
      #47128 - Tue Aug 09 2005 07:05 PM

We're gonna be moderating the main posts heavily for this one, the complexity of it is going to force it. Check the forecast lounge for things like that, June.

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hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert


Reged: Thu
Posts: 105
Loc: florida
Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene [Re: MikeC]
      #47132 - Tue Aug 09 2005 07:15 PM

What are the chances of florida getting hit by next week?

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richisurfs
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 104
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Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene [Re: hurricane expert]
      #47133 - Tue Aug 09 2005 07:19 PM

I really don't think anyone with any "real" knowledge about these storms could give you an honest answer to that question.

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Ryan
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Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene [Re: richisurfs]
      #47137 - Tue Aug 09 2005 07:26 PM

i agree with Mike C, it appears as time goes on, the Carolina's northward look more favorable..this is one everyone should watch closely on, but a question for you Mike C...does a rapid intensification look possible, and willt his intensification affect the track of the storm?

Ryan

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
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Loc: Polk City, FL
Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene [Re: richisurfs]
      #47138 - Tue Aug 09 2005 07:27 PM

Food for thought...

If it's okay w/ the mods, I'm going to post a link to another forum where a pro met posted his opinion on Irene.

The highlights:
dont see Irene making landfalll North of 33N and may not make north of 30n before she reaches 80 W...the Ridge over the SW states and SW Atlantic Ocean will be in place and LOCKED in....If I had to make the call now I see a 50% chance of Cat 3 and 25% of cat 4

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=44650

Wow. That's something to chew on. As a nonmeteorologist, this has been a fascinating storm to watch. It really seems like the quote from a discussion on Emily earlier this year (forgive me I forget which disco), "Climatology is out the window this year," could very well be prophetic words. Who would have thunk a storm that far north, that far east could threaten the southeast coast? Never happened before...


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hccapecoral
Unregistered




Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene [Re: richisurfs]
      #47139 - Tue Aug 09 2005 07:28 PM

Honestly I can its 50-50 thats the best anyone can do right now

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene [Re: Big Red Machine]
      #47142 - Tue Aug 09 2005 07:31 PM

Yeah, links to other sites are fine if relevant. Anyway, he's going bullish on the Alaskan block. Probably too much so, but it's easy to get caught up in the moment on what appears to be a sudden change of the forecast. What he's talking about isn't out of the question. But the fact that he's talking beyond 120 hours makes it mostly speculation. I disagree with it, but it's possible.

As far as the bahamas, it looks like it is going to stay north of the islands.

I may be wrong, of course, so keep a watch out and check the National Hurricane Center's updates anyway.



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dem05
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Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene [Re: MikeC]
      #47144 - Tue Aug 09 2005 07:43 PM

Whoa! Whoa! I definately love the enthusiasm of everyone, so I hope you can all pardon me for saying this, but there is enough uncertainty on a five day track. I'm growing a little concerned about where things are going in the threads. I feel we're all getting ahead of ourselves here. Seems like the language is staring to rule in or rule out 8-10 day tracks. A meteorologist once told me 6 days and beyond is a crystal ball forecast. Maybe we should just have fun with speculating on the next 5 days. I fear other people with a lesser understanding of the weather may read these posts and take it to heart, whether in Burmuda, New England, The Caarolinas, Florida, or elsewhere. I know its a lot of fun, but I hope you understand my thoughts here.

Edited by dem05 (Tue Aug 09 2005 07:46 PM)


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JG
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 55
Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene [Re: MikeC]
      #47145 - Tue Aug 09 2005 07:47 PM

A question for the mets and MikeC (thanks for your frank discussion):

Will NOAA send their research jet out to measure the ridge to get more concrete readings of the high as it builds in over the next 24 to 48 hours? I would think that would be prudent considering the recent model runs and position of Irene, but your input as to why they would or would not is of interest here.

Thanks in advance. You guys are doing a great job!


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene [Re: JG]
      #47146 - Tue Aug 09 2005 07:52 PM

Quote:

A question for the mets and MikeC (thanks for your frank discussion):

Will NOAA send their research jet out to measure the ridge to get more concrete readings of the high as it builds in over the next 24 to 48 hours? I would think that would be prudent considering the recent model runs and position of Irene, but your input as to why they would or would not is of interest here.





It doesn't look like they will tomorrow at least, I'd say thursday or Friday they'll start sending the planes out there. Daniel might know more about it.


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danielwAdministrator
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RECON [Re: MikeC]
      #47150 - Tue Aug 09 2005 08:12 PM

Thanks for the vote Mike.
Actually the Gulfstream has been conducting SAL-Sahara Dust Research. Collecting data south of Irene's envelope.
I know they flew on onday, but I'll have to check and see if they were flying today.


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StormTrooper
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
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Loc: San Antonio Go! Spurs Go!
Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene [Re: MikeC]
      #47151 - Tue Aug 09 2005 08:15 PM

All the sudden BAMM!! out comes the perdictions for the Carolina's. If this storm has shown us anything its exactly how unperdictable she is. I have one word Andrew ! Andrew was perdicted to hook sharp and be a fish spinner. It busted through (and under) the trough in its way and went SSW for the last 48 hours turning into a monster CAT5. Im not perdicting South Florida at all. No one is out of the woods. A perdiction for the Carolinas is fools gold right now. Best thing for all on the east coast is to stay tuned. Dont wait to be prepared. Be prepared ! This is going to be an unforgiving season (already has). Check in everyday. SAME BAT TIME, SAME BAT CHANNEL.

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damejune2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
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Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene [Re: StormTrooper]
      #47153 - Tue Aug 09 2005 08:24 PM

Why do people keep bringing up Andrew?? Didn't you read Clarks post earlier?? Clark is a Met and he said conditions are NOT the same as was in 1992 when Andrew intensified. Strengthen it may, but no one is saying it will be as rapid or intense as Andrew or other major storms. You are close to wishcasting if you ask me........get your facts straight before you start telling people Irene will intensify or even have a chance to intensify into a major storm. You have no clue, like the rest of us, what this storm will do or where it will go. The NHC says it may head more NW in a couple days.....and until they say different, i go with their "perdictions".

--------------------
Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)


Edited by damejune2 (Tue Aug 09 2005 08:25 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
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Enough! [Re: damejune2]
      #47154 - Tue Aug 09 2005 08:29 PM

It appears we are getting close to a personal attack here.
I'm calling this round over.


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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
Re: Uncertainty Again with Irene [Re: damejune2]
      #47155 - Tue Aug 09 2005 08:29 PM

You are correct. Models will always change their solutions at their interval updates once all equations are factored in with updated variables. I am sure the NHC is up to speed. They have performed superbly so far this season; although there is uncertainty about Irene I agree that it is far too early to draw parallels; each system is unique- and as it has been said many times before- we need to wait for the future updates to see what changes the model solutions bring us.

--------------------
________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


Edited by rmbjoe1954 (Tue Aug 09 2005 08:37 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
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RECON [Re: danielw]
      #47158 - Tue Aug 09 2005 08:37 PM

Now back to business. Someone asked about RECON.
They made several drops yesterday, but I don't see any data from today.
Yesterday's drops, at first glance, don't reflect any more wind at low level than you might find in your back yard.
But that was 30 hours ago, and weather changes.


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