Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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To clarify a little bit on Random Chaos' good post about the models...
The is the Canadian global forecast model. It does well with the systems that tend to affect Canada most often -- the midlatitude systems and the transitioners. It's not as good -- in general -- as some of the other global models when it comes to tropical systems, however.
The WRF is a new, developmental model designed for both midlatitude and tropical forecasting. There are numerous "versions" of the WRF in development for various tasks, making it the future "end-all" model for quite a bit of research operations. It'll likely replace the in about 3 years, but as noted before, is still under development. But, it has shown good promise in all aspects of its abilities, so it should be watched for reference.
All of the major models -- , , , UKMET, , , the mesoscale (MM5/WRF) models -- are dynamically-driven models. Simply put, they solve the governing equations of meteorology and produce a forecast from their solutions. Each model employs different data assimilation techniques, leading to different analyses and different forecasts. Any given forecast is only as good as the initial data you give it, of course, and in general the Navy's model (NOGAPS) and the European model (ECMWF) are the best at this task. (It should be noted, however, that the is rarely used as a tropical model, but current statistics show that it is the best global model for midlatitude weather patterns...and has been for some time.) Further, each model has its own method of representing convection, rain, boundary layer effects, and so on within its input systems & equation mechanisms, leading to more of the spread you see between each model.
The Superensemble model is unique in that it is purely statistical. It takes the output from a selection of global dynamical models and uses their past history (e.g. biases) in a complex statistical scheme in an attempt to obtain a better intensity and track forecast. More often than not, that goal is met. It has been the best performing track model in the Atlantic for two straight seasons, though the output wasn't always available in a timely manner for forecast purposes in 2003 and is thus not included in the official statistics.
Other models, such as the BAM-series, CLIPER, LBAR, and so on, fall into the statistical-dynamical or pure statistical series, but none are as complex in their statistical schemes as the Superensemble. Most of these models are over 10 years old and do not perform as well as the dynamical models, though some do have their uses. The BAM series performs reasonably well in the tropics, given a storm of a reasonable intensity, while the CLIPER model does well for storms that follow just what it says -- CLImotology and PERsistence. In general, however, these are older models with limited uses at this point in time.
That said, what should you be looking at in the model output available from the similar PSU & websites? Generally speaking, I like to use about 5 tools: sea level pressure (to track the surface features), 850mb vorticity (better representation of the tropical cyclones and allows you to better identify potential development concerns), 500mb vorticity (can occasionally give you an idea of the mid-level flow regime, but I don't use this that often), 850-200mb shear (also includes the average flow pattern between those levels, making it a good proxy for what you might see for a potential track as well as the ridge/trough pattern), and the 850mb theta-e (low-to-midlevel moisture, particularly when trying to forecast when a dust layer outbreak might end). Feel free to experiment around, however.
Hope this helps clarify some of the model questions...
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Steve H1
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 309
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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Clark, what do you see as her current heading? most of the convection is wrapping from the southeast side of the storm, giving the appearance of a NW movement. Is this a true NW movement, or is the center moving from east to west under the "wrapping convection." I'm interested because of the effect of the ULL she is nearing. If there is a weakness, I believe Irene needs to take advantage of it now (and might be doing so) as she's strengthening. there may only be a smal window for her to go out to sea, as the ridge builds westward during the next few days, and there is a "handover" to a ridge building in from the west. IMO she needs to make it to 28N by Friday night to get out of dodge, and that would mean a fairly hard NW motion. If she stays on a WNW course <290 "til saturday, she ain't going north of 32N. Cheers!!
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Steve, I agree that the upper-low could have an impact upon the storm...and if there is going to be a big turn, it's gotta happen soon in conjunction with that feature. However, given how it is weakening, I suspect only a short-lived jog northward might occur in response to the weakness. To get there, though, I'm largely going off of water vapor trends and northward jogs around this time in the last few mm5 forecasts, so it is a low-confidence forecast. A stronger upper-low than predicted would likely have more of an impact of turning it a bit further north; without anything to compensate for that later on down the line, it would certainly shift the track projections northward.
As for the motion of the storm...if only we have visible imagery at night! The mid-level center is much more evident than the low-level center, particularly given that the low cloud motions don't show up well in the infrared imagery, so I'll preface this by saying that it might be tracking the midlevel feature a bit more than the actual surface circulation. That said, overlaying the initial spot with the recent satellite imagery gives a good match to where I think the surface center is right now -- to the WNW of the deepest convection and on the SW side of the convective area on the NW side of the whole mass. Most of the convection to the SE does give the appearance of a more NW motion, but overall, I think the 290 motion is about right for the past few hours. It's tough, though...the overall circulation expanse is weakest to the SW, as indicated by QuikSCAT, but extends very far to the west and very far to the S & SE -- it'll tighten up with time, but it's not there yet. Needless to say though, 290 looks good on this end right now.
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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Now she is looking more and more like the hurricane of 1938.Not that she will have that foward speed(60mph).If I had to at this time pick a location of impact I would have to say the small state of Rhode Island.Take a look at the 1938 hurricane that hit this area with a blow they have not seen sence. http://flhurricane.com/googlemap.php?1938s4#
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
Edited by ftlaudbob (Thu Aug 11 2005 12:22 AM)
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Ryan
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
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the shows a close call on a landfall on the eastern tip of NUSC then heaing up toward S NE, what do peple think.becuase i know has been fairly reliable this season so far.
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2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.
Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back
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Ryan
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
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i gotta tell you bob, anything is possible right now but i think its safe to say we will have a EC landfall storm/hurricane the questions are whjere and how strong..unless someone thinks they know this stuff already..i mean just the 1938 hurricane hit long island not RI..but LI has not seen and may not see a storm that bad again..ever..lets hope not
-Ryan
ps-good luck east coasters 
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2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.
Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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steve.. i really doubt irene is going to get florida. it has an upper low (the reforming) which is pushing it nw again now that it has some vertical depth. i'm thinking it should arc back to the west, then take temporary bends to the nw as the strength of the ridge varies to its north. i'm sort of scratching my head as to how the heights are being mapped by various models in the extended range.. they show heights in the western u.s. being knocked down... should be strengthening the ridge off the east coast upstream. if we have a hurricane there it will be pumping the ridge up anyway... if that works out... that would favor an oscillating track wnw-nw over the next couple of days as some shortwave energy peels sw off the shortwaves currently piling up near the mid atlantic... then the ridge should poke in near the va coast early next week and bend the storm back to the left on the terminal track.
i dunno... sum of my ideas is.. ne fl/ga have a very low probability of hit.. sc has a low prob... nc moderate probability. really more or less what the cone would suggest, just with the track sort of mirrored over a line from initial to day 5.. possibly day 4.
you nc people.. if anybody has to deal with this thing it's probably going to be you. may be that peninsular florida caught up on its hurricanes last year, and now things are back to nc being the hurricane magnet in the atlantic. sad how many hurricanes have gone between wilmington and cape lookout in the last 10 yrs.. at least none have been more than low-rung cat 3.
HF 0422z11august
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Anton Ross
Weather Watcher
Reged: Fri
Posts: 42
Loc: Downtown Beaufort Marina, SC
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Thanks Clark. Glad to be here!
When I was flying out of San Diego and the WestPac in general, we held our Mets in great esteem. They were sort of minor deities of salvation...if you will. You'd be surprised how often E2Cs get bounced around the sky from bad WX conditions. Frightful stuff...
Any how...we were always grateful for our WP-3D brethren, and long rage forecasts, since some of our missions were not "3-hour tours."
At the time (this was early 90's when I left) there was a general concern over funding of proper equipment (read: super computing power) for the U.S. We had some good modeling going on (GUNS and was what I remember most as an A/C member) but the horsepower put behind the modeling was lacking.
We changed this didn't we?
I have read a little about 's SuperEnsemble, and seem to remember that our FN center hardware was SGI...but I am pretty out of the loop these days.
What have we got going for us, and is the funding for these = the amount of potential damage some of the storms wreak?
Sort of a loaded question, I know...but with insurance rates rising, and populations exploding along the East and Gulf Coasts, I just wonder if we're using the best tools available?
Given that our Gov't just passed a MASSIVE spending bill for transportation, I think this question is relevant.
PS: Not trying to start a political flame war, folks...I just want to make sure we're allocating our resources effectively.
Cheers,
Anton
/32.47N & 79.52W
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"A man's ethical behavior should be based effectually on sympathy, education, and social ties; no religious basis is necessary.
-Albert Einstein
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jaxmike
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 18
Loc: Jacksonville
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Wow. Great post Clark. May I suggest this go into a FAQ of somesort for reference later?
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ralphfl
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
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Bob i really don't see what you see but its your opinion.This storm i see going out to sea.
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Red Sox's America's Team? Call me when they win 2 let alone 23
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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I can only imagine about some of the flights across and around the Pacific...what may look benign on satellite isn't always benign. The job those guys do -- both flying and forecasting -- isn't easy in the least, and I hold a great deal of respect for everyone there.
Modelling has gotten a lot better in the past 10 years. The dynamical models got better, finallysurpassing all of the statistical models, but a lot of those gains have come solely from better data and better computing facilities. We've had some improvements in the physics, though not enough yet, but the dynamics have remained largely unchanged (which is fine). Lots more data, particularly from all of the new satellite observing systems, and much better computers to run higher resolution models have been the biggest benefits.
Funding is nowhere near what it could be, and certainly not near the potential damage these systems cost. Unfortunately, not a lot of people want to go into that area of work -- it is very demanding and requires interest in both meteorology and computer science, excelling specifically in the latter. Not many people fit that bill, and some of the big centers -- mainly on this side of the pond -- haven't been able to recruit people to work on modelling like they might have hoped. It's not as big of a problem outside of the US, however, but that's more a reflection of people in the nations and not any policy decisions. Anyway, most money these days goes into climate modelling, which is fine in its own right but not any help when it comes to the weather. There's some left over for the general weather models, but personally I think we'll see a 5-6 year period here where the models consolidate their gains from the past 10 years before taking another big leap near the end of the decade. It'll likely again be technology that drives a lot of the gains, as there isn't a lot of money going into specifically improving upon the physics within the models...we have ongoing research to better understand all of the physical aspects that may need to be forecst by a model, but not a lot of work on how best to represent it in the model. That's probably 10 years down the line, but it'll be a great leap once we get there. Just my thinking, however.
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Ryan
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
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clark, a lot of the models have recently been showing a path morth toward the north and east..northeast..which is bad news for me so im just wonder if anyone would have a link to a site with the landfall probablilities for the east coast and if not when should i look on the for them, also Hank you said that you see a major hurricane ehre, but if she takes a more northerly track, she should disipate a little being that water up here is a bit cooler then water by say the carolinas or even Delaware. DELMARVA storm, NC storm, northern mid atlantic storm, out to sea storm, sooo manyy options
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2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.
Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back
Edited by Ryan (Thu Aug 11 2005 12:51 AM)
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mikeG
Unregistered
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Noticed all 00Z runs are back to east now
on this wv loop from esl@lsu..... look south of storm, near nothern islands....looks like a mid-to-upper level vortice my be forming....pushing dry air in from the south...
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/AOI/AOI2_wv_loop.gif
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Bloodstar
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 462
Loc: Tucson, AZ
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Quote:
Noticed all 00Z runs are back to east now
Part of the reason I think the storm is going to induce headaches for the next couple of days is the back and forth 'tail wagging' (hey, someone said that phrase, and I thought it was apropos to what we are seeing now). Either you take the models and discount the ones you think are either over emphesizing something or are missing a feature that may impact the track.
Personally I'm sticking with the, 'weaker is west' mantra. and the more disorganized the storm remains, the better the chances it will not turn north at all. Of course, that's not a suprise. I just think it needs to be emphesized. The course of this particular storm is very dependant onthe intensity and organization.
The storm looks like half a storm, with the dry air absolutely killing the convection on the western semicircle. Perhaps it'll get better over night, but I suspect for at least the next day or two, it won't strengthen much (if at all) and that seems to indicate a west motion (as per the general track the last several days).
I'm still not confident. of anything at this point, but if the winds stay about the same for the next 36 hours, I have a fairly confident idea where the storm will hit.
-Mark
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
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Anton Ross
Weather Watcher
Reged: Fri
Posts: 42
Loc: Downtown Beaufort Marina, SC
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The WestPac Pond is a massive one. Most of our flights started out WAY out there, but man, even the "short hops" were pretty brutal. We had some guys flying out of Moffet who had special seat pads, believe it or not. Little custom sheepskins with some crazy foam inserts. Lucky bastards.
As for Satellites...back in the day, they weren't as much help as they are now (at least for WX forecasting...we definitely used them for other good stuff!). We frequently flew through areas of calm, only to be catapulted up-and-down in some crazy CAT which made for adventurous flights. Good thing I don't get air or sea sick...
/grin
Is (and others) using SGI platforms, still? Seems to me I remember some solutions being created by Apple for physical modeling? That is pretty sad about the current funding levels. Better forecasting and advanced warning sure would help keep damage costs low. Unfortunate that Capitol Hill doesn't get this...
I know that the current administration's science advisor (John Marburger) is none too friendly with climatologists who suggest a link between global warming and busier hurricane seasons...and I have read of a few "passionate" dialogs between him and those in the know. I guess this bothers me that Bush's own science advisor is not listening to the "grunts in the trenches" about some pretty daunting issues.
Speaking of which...how is the Pittsburgh Supercomputing Center contributing to any of this? I read some very good press about them recently...somewhere (I forget where).
Any how...I'd love to see this become more mainstream in politics, considering the amount of money/damage these 'canes are causing.
Just my 2 cents...I may be on sort of a rant tonight. Please forgive me.
Cheers,
Anton
/32.47N & 79.52W
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"A man's ethical behavior should be based effectually on sympathy, education, and social ties; no religious basis is necessary.
-Albert Einstein
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Ryan -- I'd wait to see what the models do over the next couple of days before putting a lot of stock into their many oscillations. The threat is there, as the mid-Atlantic and NE will be impacted by this storm in some way or another -- whether high surf as it recurves harmlessly to sea, a direct impact from the south, or a recurvature after landfall much further south as the storm heads back out to sea in the midlatitude pattern -- but how strong those impacts are is yet to be determined. As Bloodstar/Mark said, just stay tuned for now.
Anton -- truth be told, I'm not sure on the specifics of the computing systems down at the . I've been there once myself and know a couple of people down there, but never really got into their computing setup. All of the American models that they use, save the Superensemble, are run off of 's supercomputers up in Maryland. That is a pretty nice setup, though they could use more power. That machine is somewhere on the top 500 list of most powerful supercomputers -- and somewhere in the top 200, I believe -- but not as far up as the European Center's machines and not as far up as they used to be. 4000 TB of disk space is nothing to sneeze at, but the computing power could stand for an upgrade. Not sure on the particulars of that setup, though. Superensemble is run on our supercomputer, which is also on the top 500 list...used to be top 50, but now I believe it is just inside the top 500. Don't know of any specific involvement with the Pittsburgh group, however.
As for weather policy...I recently had the chance to meet with some of the advisors to both sides (Republican & Democratic) on weather & policy making. It is a very fascinating process, how it all occurs, but they do mention the limited funds. You can go to the floor of the house and say that you need more research for climate studies or hurricanes, as those are two topics that directly impact constituents' lives, but it's much tougher to get it for, say, improving a 3 day weather forecast by 15% when there are others wanting money for education, roads, and so on. The biggest problem with the global warming/climate change issue is that the modelling is still in a rudiamentary issue and there is much debate amongst the scientists in the field -- yet alone the policymakers -- about its impacts in the long-term and any potential impacts it is having on, say, hurricanes.
That alone begs for more funding to actually figure these things out, but data availability is always going to be a problem; it's tough to get data from 10,000 and 100,000 years ago to properly initialize these models and understand what is occuring now in comparison to what has occured in the past. Only time will tell as to where the whole fields of climate studies and meteorology head towards -- right now it seems climate modelling and satellite-based remote sensing techniques -- though there is some inertia around to see some progress.
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Domino
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 191
Loc: Makati City, Philippines
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This may be a tad off topic but I am currently in Manila and CNN international keeps reporting a tropical cyclone his Brazil today. I can't find a satellite of the south Atlantic to figure out what the heck they are talking about. Anybody know anything about this?
BTW...I am in Manila for the next 2 months....I arrived today and enjoyed the outter bands of a weak tropical storm already...
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Quote:
This may be a tad off topic but I am currently in Manila and CNN international keeps reporting a tropical cyclone his Brazil today. I can't find a satellite of the south Atlantic to figure out what the heck they are talking about. Anybody know anything about this?
BTW...I am in Manila for the next 2 months....I arrived today and enjoyed the outter bands of a weak tropical storm already...
I'd like to know wehre, it's highly unlikely since it's the heart of winter down there. But, http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/ has several southern hemisphere views for satellite.
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Steve H1
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 309
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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Clark and HF, thanks for the responses last night, I couldn't stay up any longer. Now to check the models again!!
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Takingforever
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sun
Posts: 43
Loc: Philadelphia, PA
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Looks alot like September 1999 all over again, cept Hurricane Floyd was alot closer, but I remember Tropical Storm force winds here in Philly..Believe me that wasn't fun walking in going to school(They clsoe the schools by 11am..idiots)
http://www.atmos.umd.edu/~stevenb/hurr/99/floyd/floyd_v2.gif
This one looks alot like, going by some of the models, a direct hit to Southern New Jersey/Delaware or a swipe out to sea, either way, Philly and New York should expect to feel sometype of tropical winds if it actually follows anything near these tracks, even the North Carolina track.
Funny thing is before the season started, they were talknig of a Jersey shore hit was high...since it has been 102 years since that happen in Atlantic City.
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