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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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MikeG
Unregistered




Re: another record possible? [Re: NONAME]
      #47886 - Sat Aug 13 2005 10:48 PM

THE NEXT RECON
FLIGHT AT 06Z SHOULD FIND IRENE AS A HURRICANE.


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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: Caribbean Waves [Re: Old Sailor]
      #47889 - Sat Aug 13 2005 10:52 PM

(post deleted - personal reference)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Aug 14 2005 12:05 AM)


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damejune2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
Re: Just love this sat loop [Re: Old Sailor]
      #47891 - Sat Aug 13 2005 10:55 PM

Quote:

I see that cluster of storms SE of TD10, maybe it's little sister following Him, It should be interesting to see what NHC says at 11:00 PM on TD10 in there forcast track and Tropical Discussion on TD10.
Dave




Ralph - this is the post you replied to....no mention of a westward moving storm.....anyway....i'm done with this discussion with you.

--------------------
Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Caribbean Waves [Re: ralphfl]
      #47894 - Sat Aug 13 2005 11:08 PM

And if fact - when he said it, it was indeed moving west - and if you'll notice the Update on the Main Page, I also said it. I believe that it is still moving generally to the west. It has recently made a slight jog to the northwest, but storms wobble about - particularly in their formative stages. Meteorologists can often interpret things differently, but we gon't get in the habit of nit-picking. A little courtesy goes a long way - especially on this site.

Ed Dunham. Administrator
Chief Meteorologist (ret)
The Boeing Company


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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: Caribbean Waves *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #47897 - Sat Aug 13 2005 11:17 PM

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

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stormchazer
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida
Re: Caribbean Waves [Re: ralphfl]
      #47904 - Sat Aug 13 2005 11:45 PM

Quote:

WHILE WIND REPORTS FROM NOAA
BUOY 41041 AND A 13/2349Z SSMI OVERPASS SUGGEST THAT BROAD
CIRCULATION CENTER MAY BE LOCATED NEAR 14N46W...OR ABOUT 90 NMI
SOUTHWEST OF THE ADVISORY POSITION. HOWEVER...THE SSMI DATA MAY BE
DEPICTING ONE OF SEVERAL SMALL CIRCULATIONS THAT MAY BE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE REMNANTS OF THE ITCZ...SO THE OFFICIAL POSITION WAS
BASED ON CONTUNITY WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY MOTION AND KEPT NEAR
THE SIDE OF THE STRONGEST CONVECTION.




Another words, without a definative fix they are following contunity and following the NW movement.

Quote:

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 315/08.




Notice the term...."ESTIMATE."

Anyways, TD10 is in its formative stages and it is hard, especially at night to guage the exact movements.

Use PM to assist others. Not the Board...portion of post removed.~danielw

--------------------
Jara

*************************************************************


Edited by danielw (Sun Aug 14 2005 12:02 AM)


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Administrative Note [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #47906 - Sun Aug 14 2005 12:15 AM

Just completed some clean-up work on the thread. I was able to recover some posts and they have been placed in the Forecast Lounge.
ED


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damejune2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
Re: Administrative Note [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #47907 - Sun Aug 14 2005 12:35 AM

Ed - I have a question for you concerning TD10. I watched JB's video today and he used a model (can't remember which one) and advanced it to 288 hours which would bring TD10 or Jose, to the Florida coast. He seemed pretty serious about it, but we all know that only time will tell. What was alarming was a professional Met looking 288 hours ahead and predicting a Fla landfall. Kind of scary for novice folks like myself. Whats your take??

--------------------
Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Long Range Model [Re: damejune2]
      #47909 - Sun Aug 14 2005 01:02 AM

For the moment, I'd take it with a grain of salt - not worth worrying about. Performance of long-range models beyond about 5 days is very poor, and the only long range model in the public domain is the GFS - which has not been stellar this season. This year it has failed at 2 or 3 days, let alone 12. Could it happen? Well anything is possible, but will it verify - not likely at all. Remember, the models are just a guide to the forecaster - they are not the gospel. Sometimes an experienced forecaster will see things that the model has missed or didn't put the proper significance on. If the system even survives, in about a week (or less) the GFS will have the storm going someplace else. I'm not a betting man, but I'd bet on that!
Cheers,
ED


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Gainesville, FL
Unregistered




Re: Administrative Note [Re: damejune2]
      #47912 - Sun Aug 14 2005 01:32 AM

Just keep in mind JB and JC and everybody else want viewers to 'stay tuned for further information about this developing situation.' So if it's an off day and there is no immediate threat, they have to get more creative. Saying 'the storm might do this, 12 days from now, according to one model' indicates it was an off day in the TC/Hurricane News business. I wouldn't make anything more of it than that.

(off-topic material removed)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Aug 14 2005 01:41 AM)


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: Long Range Model [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #47914 - Sun Aug 14 2005 01:40 AM

I'll agree wholeheatedly with Ed's statement. There's a classic example of this effect with long-range GFS runs with Frances last year hanging in the halls at FSU. Two consecutive runs, out 13 days, took the storm on over 1000km different tracks -- one into southern Florida, one recurving it near Bermuda. Even though Frances did ultimately affect Florida, it did so several days later than that projection, given the weak steering regime it moved into near the northern Bahamas. Needless to say, it's best just to watch things as they unfold and then begin to make preparations if it looks like it might impact your area 5 days out.

I've added another blog post to the front page about this storm. Highlights this time include...
* Why did Irene turn out to sea and not head into the US? (A retrospective piece with some educational aspects as well.)
* Where is Irene going, and how strong will it get as it heads out?
* What about TD 10? The models don't pick up it very well, so what can we forecast in the interim?
* Analysis of the overall pattern & potential changes in it across the basin, with brief comments about future areas of concern in the long-term.
* Finally, brief comments about Fernanda, Greg, and potential future development in the East Pacific.

It's pretty long, so bear with me through it please, and please do feel free to send me any comments or suggestions (or questions) via PM. I may not always be able to update on a daily basis with these storms, particularly given that this pattern of one or two storms at a time may continue for another month, but as noted in the preface to the posting, I'd like everyone's comments on the structure and timing of the posts.

Thanks everyone -- have a good night & good Sunday!

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Re: Long Range Model [Re: Clark]
      #47916 - Sun Aug 14 2005 02:20 AM

I caught Bastardis' video this morning and no way did he say FL was getting hit. He should have been more clear in what he was saying, but if you went back and viewed it, you'd see what I was talking about. Someone else said the same thing on another forum and was directed back to the video by someone else who corrected them.

He showed a GFS upper chart. The point wasn't so much that he felt like the cyclone would hit Florida as to demonstrate the positive height anomalies that are coming to the Northern Atlantic with corresponding pressure falls and potential for development south of those heights. FWIW, the 7day MRF (GFS) NAO forecast has been very good this season tracking pressures in the Northern Atlantic.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/new.nao_index_ensm.html

I think his bigger point in the video was that the Western Gulf could be the next place to watch for impact mid next week.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Long Range Model [Re: Clark]
      #47917 - Sun Aug 14 2005 02:40 AM

Hi all - a little sleepy & groggy. I woke up with a nightmare and sought out some familiar things to do until I could get in a good frame of mind to go back to bed. So, a day later, now Irene looks like I expected she'd look overnight yesterday, but didn't. Very tidied up. And this after looking very scraggly all day long today. Surprise again, go figure. Glanced over the thread and read discussion 38, and checked the recon which it looks like has just started to come in (I don't see anything of note in the 14/05:06:10Z).

I'm glad NHC is pretty sure about that turn. Looking at the sat image and seeing the possibility of Irene getting up to hurricane status, even just so, and still some westward movement, brings things into sharper focus.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
why people listen to Bastardi [Re: Margie]
      #47918 - Sun Aug 14 2005 08:31 AM

For one because his discussion on his different possible solutions to scenarios is well based and in depth and a feast of facts for people who love weather and being able to watch different scenarios played out. He gives good explanations and even when he is wrong ... I learn a lot about things I wouldn't pay much attention to otherwise and can keep in mind and utilize later.

It's fun to watch his mind work I suppose.

Either way, reading here what you all are saying and still think it is hard to say for sure what a storm will do when climo is so off as it is this year. A lot more variables than in normal years. This year is far from normal.

Read the Tropical Update this morning from NHC and had to look through it several times just to realize discussion on TD10 was a sort of PS with a reference to another site.

Agree with Frank in that the one behind TD10 looks more interesting than TD10.

Everytime I go to look at TD 10 my eyes go elsewhere.

Have a good day everyone, reading your blog Clark.

Enjoying the blogs here.. Bobbi
if you think on it.. Bastardi's column (which I prefer to his video) has been from day one sort of like a blog more than a post.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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MikeG
Unregistered




Re: why people listen to Bastardi [Re: LoisCane]
      #47919 - Sun Aug 14 2005 08:41 AM

Well, Irene looks like a compact Hurricane this morning and TD10.... i don't think it will make it through today. The low level center is way far away from convection (sw of blob) and moving west.... if it makes it to this afternoon....it's hanging on...

Anyway here's a nice loop this morning Irene of NC Coast


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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
Re: Long Range Model [Re: Steve]
      #47920 - Sun Aug 14 2005 08:49 AM

Good morning all, is this a meaningless circulation @24 and 82 just off the florida coast http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Circulation off SW Florida [Re: Tazmanian93]
      #47921 - Sun Aug 14 2005 09:12 AM

...is an upper level low (cold core) that is kicking off some thunderstorms. Read Clark's latest blog - he mentions it. Nothing to be concerned about.
Cheers,
ED


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NONAME
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 136
Re: Circulation off SW Florida [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #47922 - Sun Aug 14 2005 09:31 AM

Is the shear over TD 10 worse than the shear irene had to go through. Also what else is cooking in the basin?

--------------------
I am a young Weather enthusiast and really want to get to college in a couple of years for meteorology.


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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc:
Re: Administrative Note [Re: damejune2]
      #47923 - Sun Aug 14 2005 10:00 AM

Quote:

Ed - I have a question for you concerning TD10. I watched JB's video today and he used a model (can't remember which one) and advanced it to 288 hours which would bring TD10 or Jose, to the Florida coast. He seemed pretty serious about it, but we all know that only time will tell. What was alarming was a professional Met looking 288 hours ahead and predicting a Fla landfall. Kind of scary for novice folks like myself. Whats your take??




This season and even last seson, JB has been off, waaay off on his hurricane forecasts. To the point that I don't consider him a credible source of information anymore. Basicly it comes down to the fact that he seems to see EVERY storm that is moving West coming to Florida or New Orleans and it just isn't happening.
I appreciate and get much more accurate information from Clark and Ed and others on this sited.
I guess it never hurts to read what JB has to say but in my opinion, he is wrong much more than he is right.


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MikeG
Unregistered




Sunday Morning [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #47924 - Sun Aug 14 2005 10:19 AM

TD10 should be an open wave at 11am adv.... center is very exposed ......( take a look here ). Also irene appears to be suckin in some dry air on nw side there looks like two areas of convection now, with the low level center in the northern one. RSO - vis this morning looks cool.....

More interesting right now, to me is the wave north of Panama in the Carribean. Should move NW..... will see what happens in a few days.wv loop


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