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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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ralphfl
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Re: Bye Bye TD 10 [Re: Old Sailor]
      #48003 - Mon Aug 15 2005 03:32 PM

old sailor what are you looking at that shows a GOM as even with wave the models show going north west down the road so what model are you useing for that call???? or is it a gut feeling which we all have.

Edited by ralphfl (Mon Aug 15 2005 03:32 PM)


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Old Sailor
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Re: Bye Bye TD 10 [Re: ralphfl]
      #48004 - Mon Aug 15 2005 03:49 PM

What I was saying old TD10 is traveling west at about 285 to maybe 290 if this LLC does not delevop it will most likely keep tracking w, w-nw Lets say in 48 hours TD10 start to come back to life, by then it be in the east Carrib, right now the models just being toild a low is there. LLC I hope it just stays a low ,it could gain TD back in a few days if that was to happen just MAY be a problem in the GOM.

Dave


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Steve
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Re: Bye Bye TD 10 [Re: Old Sailor]
      #48005 - Mon Aug 15 2005 04:27 PM

>>Steve - I guess i never looked at JB's forecast like you put it...i always paid more attention to his landfall predictions. I like his analysis on the tropics, patterns, etc...that part was ok with me it was his landfall points that got me. You did put it into perspective......i guess i should get the info i need about the atmosphere conditions and then turn it off when he starts talking about landfall. Thanks for your insight!!!

No problem. It's a case of not wanting to throw the baby out with the bathwater for me. I don't want to completely knock his landfalls, because I have seen him outperform other forecasters and the NHC a time or two (Isidore, Lili, Cindy). But his value is more in the realm of "heads-up, look at this possibility" than in the "Dennis will be landfalling near the mouth of the MS River").

Anyway, the Western Caribbean is fairly active today. I'm wondering what, if anything, might come out of that. Some of the globals have shown some bulging in their isobars either near/on the Yucatan Peninsula or in the Bay of Campeche. That was a little less pronounced, but there is some persistence.

daniel,

Why would you want to delete any future posts about the remnants of TD #10? While it's fairly evident we don't have anything to even think about now, there is still a low-level swirl, and some of the models are taking an inverted trof toward the SE FL coast near the ends of their runs (weekend time frame). It's just my opinion, but I wouldn't want to stiffle any reasonable discussion about any potential this season.

Steve

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craigm
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Re: Bye Bye TD 10 [Re: Old Sailor]
      #48006 - Mon Aug 15 2005 06:23 PM

Here I go again with my 85GHZ that I refer to so much. I realize this is bordering on being sheared apart but, how much energy are we actually observing here. Keep in mind this is more than water vapor radiance -liquid water, clouds and Ice at the top of the convection. Right now it it is a fairly organized feature compared to infrared and visible imagery. This image is about 4 hours old. (darn polar orbits)
Maybe we could call this'The depression formerly known as 10'.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/SS85/20.jpg

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damejune2
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Re: Bye Bye TD 10 [Re: Steve]
      #48009 - Mon Aug 15 2005 07:12 PM

Maybe Danny's thinking was the fact that the NHC wasn't holding anymore discussions on it and de-classified it - thus the reason he wanted everyone to drop the TD10 talk. I don't doubt anyone's ability on here, but until the NHC says that this thing will come back, i am going to say it's a goner. The 5pm tropical discussion says that upper level winds are not favorable at this time and that formation is not expected through Tuesday. So, once again it's a waiting game. I was on earlier today and people were talking about TD10 and the posts were not removed.....perhaps the mods changed their minds.

--------------------
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Steve H1
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Re: Bye Bye TD 10 [Re: damejune2]
      #48011 - Mon Aug 15 2005 07:43 PM

There is no need to NOT DISCUSS the remnants of TD # 10 because it is a vigorous low pressure area that we may have to deal with down the line. I don't see this dissipating, and it is not just a swirl of low clouds.

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tpratch
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Re: Bye Bye TD 10 [Re: Steve H1]
      #48012 - Mon Aug 15 2005 07:58 PM

I'm pretty sure they would have been deleted for other reasons. Afterall, this thread is entitled "TD 10 is now upon us".

This place is run very well - this year there is a little bit of a schism, however, due to the new "forecast" forum. What was fair game previously in the main news threads, can now sometimes be off topic, or rather, be better-suited for the forecast threads.


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Storm Cooper
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Re: Bye Bye TD 10 [Re: tpratch]
      #48013 - Mon Aug 15 2005 08:17 PM

tpratch, Thank You for that post! Along with other things that may have been going on at the time, I am not sure what went on with the TD 10 posting in question.... BUT... lets use the PM feature to inquire about things like this and not flood the main board with it, please.

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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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fatmike
Unregistered




Re: Bye Bye TD 10 [Re: Steve H1]
      #48015 - Mon Aug 15 2005 08:41 PM

Interesting thing Steve Gregory from wunderground stated in his latest post is that saharian dust layer could cause a lot of problems for storms to form the rest of the year. Note the word could. Just something interesting for thought

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Steve
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Re: Bye Bye TD 10 [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #48016 - Mon Aug 15 2005 09:09 PM

Nobody's flooding the main board, and I'm certainly not bagging on daniel - especially since I like him - but the the quote was:

To eliminate any and all confusion to some of the readers here. This is the Final Advisory on what was TD 10. Issued 12 hours ago. There is No TD 10. Only the remnants remain. End of discussion. Until NHC makes a determination that it has regenerated. Any further posts will be removed from the board.

Unless someone was calling for an immediate intensification into a Cat 5 that was going to hit the Bahamas or something, that would be like banning talk of future African waves or upper lows with a shot to work their way down to the surface in the Central Atlantic. Maybe it was the content of the posts themselves (which I didn't see) but it didn't make a lot of sense to me that we'd want to cut off discussion of an entity that many Globals still maintain as a trackable one through the weekend.

Steve

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MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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Ron Basso
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Re: Bye Bye TD 10 [Re: damejune2]
      #48018 - Mon Aug 15 2005 09:18 PM

My question is..if we didn't have the remnants of TD10 to discuss, would there be any posts today? But, its not like there isn't some potential here. Look at the latest IR SAT, convection is starting to refire around the north semi-circle of the LLC. Did anyone see Accuweathers video "point/counterpoint" today (http://weather.yahoo.com/vidindex/index.html). JB discusses features with another MET & he is still talkin about Jose forming from old TD10 and cruising to the Bahamas on the southern periphery of the Atlantic Ridge. I have to admit ole JB looked rather beaten down today. He just couldn't understand why Irene went northward through this tiny crack in the Ridge. He said, quite correctly, that there were no obvious upper level features to steer her north. I was in JBs camp on this one. I too thought the Ridge would be too strong also. He was also lamenting the fact that the GFS model for some reason this year is out to lunch. Anyway, too early to write off the remnants of TD10 - Western Carribean looks like one big convective blob tonite - might be something developing over the long-term with high pressure building over top and some of the models hinting at development.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html

--------------------
RJB


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Ron Basso
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Re: Bye Bye TD 10 [Re: Steve H1]
      #48019 - Mon Aug 15 2005 09:40 PM

Everyone has been discussing the demise of TD10 - Well, I just looked at the GFDL 18Z run, and it has it up to a 113 knot hurricane in 5 days. Who knows what will happen, but it certainly doesn't leave it an open wave.

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-...;hour=Animation

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RJB


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HanKFranK
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the more things change, the more they stay the same [Re: Ron Basso]
      #48020 - Mon Aug 15 2005 09:46 PM

situation hasn't changed a whole lot since when i left saturday morning. irene is the only system out there, and it isn't going to affect land.. and there's another system which needs to be watched in case it gets through the trough and starts deepening.
a'ite.. irene.. well, irene is hurricane #3. we've had nine systems so far this year and only three hurricanes... that's low. when you factor that three four were gulf tropical storms (two almost hurricanes) and that the two open-atlantic systems (franklin/harvey) were solid tropical storms at times.. it's a little more sensible. the ridge is pretty flat and sharp... so irene didn't work towards nantucket.. the westerlies north of the ridge were too strong. it's gotten about as strong as it can given the synoptic environment and will be gone in a couple of days in the north atlantic.
td 10.. has come and gone while i was out.. and should come again if it's anything like irene was. the declassification has been noted by several to be inconsistent with sheared t.d. 9/irene hanging around for days on end. this evening it's throwing a decent amount of convection in what are probably going to be <6hr bursts. the general progression of the system has been wnw since it's stayed shallow.. it should end up near 22/60 around thursday as the upper trough slowly weakens, and come under the influence of the ridge from there. i'd expect there to be a discernable low pressure area though it may or may not be a rated tropical cyclone at that point. i'd say 3 to 1 odds the storm will regenerate. some track models are poking it nw into the ridge in the western atlantic (as irene/harvey/franklin have done into progressively stronger ridges.. something to keep in mind).. others taking it more to the west near the bahamas around the weekend. there are too many variables to talk about a threat to the u.s. other than to say that it could be assuming it survives and that the ridge doesn't let it poke through. how vague is that?
mjo is working in slowly. the active convection in the western caribbean makes this evident.. as do the systems which have been developing further east in the pacific as time goes by. late last week bastardi was mentioning the lowering pressures in the gulf some of the globals were showing.. quite a few still are. in a couple of days there should be some disturbed weather in the western gulf.. is as far as i'm willing to interpret that right now.
fairly robust wave coming off africa... they've been evaporating with the sal and lackluster convergence. northeasterly flow east of the strong ridge near the east coast has a trough strung from east of bermuda to the ne caribbean. it's a sheared environment near an upper trough, but anything that works west from this area (or the TD 10 feature if it breaks through) would be worthy of notice.
with the MJO anomalies trudging west, SOI has been dipping negative every time it goes near neutral. the index should shift this week and the MJO wave finally become more influential in the atlantic. by the end of the month the 'wave train' should be going.. although right now we're only seeing waves activate further west.
so to recap.. TD 10 regeneration looks quite possible, western gulf may trigger an invest in the next couple of days, and the eastern atlantic is quiet but should begin to perk up over the next week or two.
HF 0146z16august


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Clark
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Re: Bye Bye TD 10 [Re: Ron Basso]
      #48021 - Mon Aug 15 2005 09:47 PM

The upper-level features that propelled Irene to the north may not have been present a week ago, but they were 4 or so days ago. As model guidance changes and as the pattern changes, you've got to go with what the storm is doing, not what you originally predicted. The North Carolina landfall never happened because as the upper-low in the central Gulf moved northward, it shifted the bulk of the westerlies further northward, allowing a ridge to build in near and over Irene, keeping it moving slowly for some time. The ridge, however, was (and is) progressive, which isn't too big of a surprise given the westerly flow that did persist in the region and that the Rex block along 40W was far enough east to allow for the ridge to progress eastward (and now the block has completely broken down).

Three days ago, it became even more apparent that the channel for Irene to move through was coming, and lo and behold it did. Remember -- given weakened steering currents, the natural tendency of a storm is to drift towards the north and west. As a storm moves further north, the natural tendency is for it to recurve out to sea as it meets the westerly flow once and for all. Given this factor alone, once the steering currents collapsed with the storm so far away from the coast, the storm was basically destined to move out to sea.

It was a little surprising to see the steering flow evolve like it did early last week, when things looked more hairy for the SE United States. But, as I mentioned in my blog post from Saturday night, minor evolutions in the steering pattern can make a huge difference, as they did with Irene. To say that the way for it to head north wasn't present/visible isn't really correct; to say that it wasn't there about a week ago is more correct. That's why JB draws a lot of heat, fairly or unfairly -- he's stubborn. I'm stubborn at times too -- I haven't given up on TD 10 quite yet -- but you've gotta know when you swallow your pride and your forecast and revise things. That's why the NHC is usually conservative with their forecasts, in case things change, and why they generally do an excellent job (as borne out by the statistics).

That said, let's see what the next 5 days bring. TD 10's remnants are still around (just as a heads-up, I think Daniel's comments were designed to try to quelch the speculation that TD 10 still existed, when in fact it did not), the flareup in the western Caribbean bears watching (though is largely forced by an upper-low at this time), and the model guidance is in pretty good agreement on something substantial coming off of the coast of Africa in 4-5 days. While Irene may thankfully be heading out to sea, there's still plenty worth watching.

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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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La Nimo
Weather Watcher


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Re: Bye Bye TD 10 [Re: Ron Basso]
      #48025 - Mon Aug 15 2005 11:14 PM

It's funny we only post what we want pin point, last night the GFDL 18Z run, same time same results, however the next 3 runs a 00Z,06Z, and 12Z showed no TD in there runs, you should give all the information out not just cherry pick to have things your way.

Edit -- to clarify, I don't think Ron is "cherry picking" just to have things his way. Sure, it's just one run of the GFDL, but there have been others that also showed similar intensification yesterday. It's about a 60/40 split favoring nothing happening out of that model, making the wishy-washy nature of the solutions dubious at best, but I really doubt Rob's just cherry picking, given his previous contributions to the forum. --Clark

Edited by Clark (Tue Aug 16 2005 12:12 AM)


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Ryan
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Re: Bye Bye TD 10 [Re: Clark]
      #48026 - Mon Aug 15 2005 11:20 PM

Quote:

That said, let's see what the next 5 days bring. TD 10's remnants are still around (just as a heads-up, I think Daniel's comments were designed to try to quelch the speculation that TD 10 still existed, when in fact it did not), the flareup in the western Caribbean bears watching (though is largely forced by an upper-low at this time), and the model guidance is in pretty good agreement on something substantial coming off of the coast of Africa in 4-5 days. While Irene may thankfully be heading out to sea, there's still plenty worth watching.




yea i saw that storm coming of the african coast, it looks to be pretty impresive but it may reach up to the point where TD#10 died and were Irene sustantially weakened before re-gaining strenght, it seems like there's always somehting to watch, hey clark are the expecting that caribbean flare up to become an Invest or a TD or TD10 to re strengthen?

curious,ryan

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2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


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Brad in Miami
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Re: Bye Bye TD 10 [Re: Ron Basso]
      #48027 - Mon Aug 15 2005 11:49 PM

Just to clarify, even setting aside other issues regarding that GFDL run (i.e., it's only one run off an unclassified low, the model has been changing run to run, it's 5+ days out, etc.), that GFDL run doesn't bring the remnants of TD 10 to a 113 kt storm. The 113 kt forecast winds are at a height of 950 mb, so, according to the GFDL's translation, surface winds would typically be 15-25% less, ie about 85-96 kt.

To see that caveat, look at the lower left hand corner of the model run.

The former TD 10 still has a pretty vigorous circulation. My money is still against regeneration - looks like it has a decent amount of shear left to fight through - but not by too much. I'm surprised it's held on this well through the last 36 or more hours, but I suppose I shouldn't be in light of the shear-survivors that came before it this season.


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La Nimo
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Re: Bye Bye TD 10 [Re: Brad in Miami]
      #48028 - Mon Aug 15 2005 11:54 PM

Good point Brad, I miss that caveat, last night GFDL had the same output but today the other runs had showed really nothing there out 120 hours. most long range models not showing very much.

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HanKFranK
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Re: Bye Bye TD 10 [Re: La Nimo]
      #48031 - Tue Aug 16 2005 01:04 AM

we went through all this with irene. even in some of today's runs various globals aren't initializing it as anything, though it's a hurricane.
we've seen the NHC maintain classification systems like TD 10 before. forecasters vary in how to classify such systems, i guess.
if you watch the cimss estimated shear, you'll notice that the shear zone is weakening and becoming less proximal to former 10. it's still too strong to allow the system to do more than minimal strengthening, but not what i'd consider strong enough to kill it. there is dry air infringement on the envelope of the low, but it isn't becoming more pronounced either. i'd put my money on its survival as of right now. all it has to do is keep bursting convection to do that.
HF 0504z16august


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


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Re: Bye Bye TD 10 [Re: HanKFranK]
      #48032 - Tue Aug 16 2005 02:50 AM

i think the low east of the islands might make a come back.....there is shear but the thing is still holding on...

why keep running models, when its just an open wave, or weak low?

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
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2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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