The Force 2005
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native
Weather Guru
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DanielW and/or Clark;
What are your thoughts on this:
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2005
...TROPICAL WAVES...
E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W/31W S OF 22N MOVING W 10-15
KT. BROAD ROTATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE WITH LOWER PRESSURES
SUGGESTING THE PRESENCE OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERED
ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 13N. THE WAVE COULD BEGIN MOVING FASTER NOW
THAT IT IS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE ENHANCING W WINDS OFF THE COAST
OF AFRICA. ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS S OF THE .
Note the LAT's given: S of 22N w/ a "suggested" presence of a LLC near 13N ??? That's an awfully big stretch?
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ralphfl
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Start a new thread? what storm would that be for? only thing could be tropical discussion and that is what we are doing now  hopefully a fish will develope so we have a storm going nowhere to talk about.
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The Force 2005
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Ralph,
What I was impying is that #10 is no longer yet we continue to post on soemthing that is not there anymore, and suggested a new thread for future developements in the Atlantic.
Edited by The Force 2005 (Fri Aug 19 2005 02:21 PM)
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Hootowl
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I think this is what Gainesville was trying to show everyone.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html
And, would someone please look at this and let me know what they think?
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2005081900&field=850mb+Vorticity&hour=084hr
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native
Weather Guru
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Force -
Try this: I test sent to myself & it worked.
NOAA
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Johnathan
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Quote:
Quote:
Nobody seems to want to drop XTD 10, Here is my take on XTD 10, This is a MLC enbedded in the wave, more I think about XTD 10 is was never a TD only look to be one this would explain the ups and downs for the last week.
Dave
Dave, I have to respectfully disagree with you about old TD10. There was clearly a LLC intact for 2-3 days until about 24 hours ago. My take was that it was always a TD until yesterday. What possibly led to the demise of the LLC was the easterly surge of dry air that caught up to the system & disrupted the circulation. Overnight & this am another impressive burst of convection with the MLC near 19.5N-64W. Will it develop? Probably less than 50% chance but who knows. The latest 06Z brings the wave into the peninsula early-to-mid next week. We could use the rain on the west coast of FL.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html
Agreed...the rain has been absent this year on the coast near me. Most activity has been inland.
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The Force 2005
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I believe that is what all the models and JB were hinting at a "BIG" low coming off Africa which could be our next storm, perhaps right away.
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native
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Quote:
And, would someone please look at this and let me know what they think?
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2005081900&field=850mb+Vorticity&hour=084hr
Would it be correct to assume that you are refering to the "system" shown just NW of the Cape Verde Islands?
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The Force 2005
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Are you talking about the develpement at 20N/20W?
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native
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Good, I assumed correct...you know what they say about assuming 
Yeah, the weather related entities are noticing it also...see my post earlier (I think it's on the previous page)
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The Force 2005
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So with that being said and agreed upon, the pressure is falling in that area, and could have ourselves a TD if not a Storm. Will have to wait and see what the puts out.
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Hootowl
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Actually I was looking at the little blob approaching south Florida.
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The Force 2005
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Did you know that this plot is for 84HRS, and it hints of a possible low pressure area in that vincinity at the specified time period. Now it could be old #10, but don't think so considering there was no LLC when the RECON was out there yesterday. So, we have to assume that the models are hinting just the opposite.
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native
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Ah! Gottcha...my guess...my you it's not a "educated" one either ,is that says 84hrs. out..which would mean late sunday early monday...maybe it's the "wave" like remnants of XTD 10 that JB thinks will approach the Bahamas in that time frame? Like I said, just a guess.
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The Force 2005
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Hootowl
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Someone posted earlier that they saw something on the model for mid next week. I could't see it - all I found was the model in the link I posted earlier.
Could be I didn't look in the correct time frame. I was just hoping for the rain.
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The Force 2005
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Are you wishing for rain, be careful what you wish for. Take a look at this SAT.
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The Force 2005
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
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Hootowl
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Our local mets said that there would be a front approaching Florida this weekend. I was thinking that could be weather in front of the front.
(there I go thinking again) Good chance I am completely wrong.
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