NONAME
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 136
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Looks like the covection is flaring up even more
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SWEDE
Unregistered
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SHIPS model 1800Z run takes the system to a 62 knots TS in 120 hours, which means the models have no real handle on this system seems to be going back on track models same as 006Z this morning, also scatt drop some this PM to 1.0/1.0.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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Pressure is around 1009mb so its boarderline TD status, has everything but T-Storms near the center (although a flare up) anyways with pressure at 1009mb its up to to want to make this a TD again.
scottsvb
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swede
Unregistered
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Scottsvb.
How did you get 1009 when the 2:05PM has it at 1012?
1012 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TEN...WAS NEAR 16N55W MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 5 TO
10 KT.
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc:
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Still looks very disorganized...lot of shear...don't think we will see any classifaction at 5.
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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NONAME
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 136
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There is a new invest in the eastern pacific and it look good also 99E invest is shear and it look like it has a LLC?! Here is attachment of the two they are labeled in the top left corner.
Im not sure if this is a relevent post but I couldnt find any threads for the Eastern Pacific
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NONAME
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 136
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Here is the other one sorry for inconvenice.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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1009mb is on the site, new updated sat. I get info from many spots.
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ralphfl
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
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tpratch
Moderator
Reged: Fri
Posts: 339
Loc: Maryland
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There's a small amount of excitement with any hurricane. Even going through and Jeanne last year, I too feel it still.
That being said, this particular argument about the posters here "hoping" for a hurricane has been hashed out and ruled extremely out of bounds. Trying to question motives of people you hardly know is highly inappropriate on most forums, and this board makes no exception to that rule.
Please don't make us "weather lovers" out to be people with appetites for destruction - it's just not the case.
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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 299
Loc: Philadelphia
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For all:
This website has a wealth of information that I find no where else.
www.ih2000.net/ira/bmt-wth.htm
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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scott -- ex-TD 10 has been flaring up convection every day thus far for the past 3-4, partially aided by some upper-level divergent winds, yes, but gradually growing better organized and nearer to the center. With a closed LLC, good low-level organization, and the convection over the center as of the past couple of hours (if slightly disorganized), it meets all of the criteria for being a TD. I guess I should put it this way -- if Irene was a TD for so long despite a worse apperance and worse organization, how is this one not? Granted, it's not the best way to base an argument for this being a TD, but I guess I'm just searchnig for a little consistency. Nevertheless, whether it is a TD now or not, it should get there soon enough.
native -- *if* it gets going, it is the feature some are showing to perhaps be a conduit for TD 10 to recurve. But that isn't a given at this point. As for where the system is in 4 days, that's largely dependent upon how strong it is, whether that low materializes or not, and a whole slew of other facotrs (including the evolution of the subtropical ridge). Can't really say right now.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 299
Loc: Philadelphia
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I would like to respond to this. Every so often, we get a storm of a great magnitude, whether it be a Major Snowstorm or Hurricane. The fact remains, it is all about mother nature and her fury that brings out the best in all MET's and observers. It is obvious that we don't want to alarm or expect that every system will turn out to be a destructive hurricane, to destroy everything in it's wake, it is a simple fact of measuring the power of a specific entity. Having said that, we are just consumed at the production of a storm till the end. If all storms remain off the coast, we would still post on this forum regardless.
Edited by The Force 2005 (Wed Aug 17 2005 03:54 PM)
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abyrd
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 62
Loc: apopka
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Just out on the east central florida forecast:
THE MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME
WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD TD #10. SOME POSSIBILITY FOR
REGENERATION WITH HPC DAY 6/7 POSITIONS EAST OF THE BAHAMAS.
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Rabbit
Weather Master
Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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first off, i dont really look at the local weather service tropical forecasts, because they look at ONLY the models, and exclude what is actually happening. Second, as to the consistancy question, Irene had a worse appearance on satellite than XTD10, but Irene had a better-defined LLC.
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NONAME
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 136
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I think ex10 will be 10 again sometime tonight or they might just wait till recon get out there looks like Irene is going and the persistant convection around 30w s of 10n if it getts away from the ITZC it could become a storm but not for more than a few days.
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none
Unregistered
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But aren't models based on actual data that is put in them?
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc:
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Here is the afternoon HPC forecast the the next 7 days. I guess TD10 is what is showing in the last three days.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 299
Loc: Philadelphia
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The models really rely on a RECON to provide the most accurate data that the models need to provide some logic in forecasting and predictions. Also, the elements at hand also play a role in what the puts out.
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Rabbit
Weather Master
Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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the problem with some of the models is that they have a tendancy to underpredict intensity, especially with small systems.
I just saw the satellite imagery and XTD10 seems to be getting better organized, despite the strong shear over top of it (sound a little familiar?)
I think it is still possible for this to become a minimal tropical storm in time to break the record for 10 (which is August 23)
also, if anyone is interested, today is the anniversary of Camille in 1969.
Edited by Rabbit (Wed Aug 17 2005 04:24 PM)
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