Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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It seems to me that 's people and those at the desk aren't talking too well today 
Wave near Puerto Rico:
TAFB TWD 8am: THIS IS CERTAINLY AN AREA TO WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE GENESIS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
TWO 11am: TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT DAY OR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD.
Yucatan wave:
TAFB TWD 8am: WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER S
MEXICO AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE no mention of development
TWO 11am: SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE WHEN IT EMERGES INTO IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
So which is it? I realize is 3 hours more recent, but generally there aren't major changes between the two sources. Each one talks about the same waves doing nearly the same things usually. This time it seems very divergent in their forcasts!
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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TAFB and the are in the same building, but the forecasters at each can occasionally disagree on various aspects of development for any disturbance -- just like you see some here disagree from time to time.
As for the first disturbance, the primarily focuses on one to two days out, whereas the TWD -- if it ever mentions development -- will usually only mention the conditions that could lead to development. The TWD is generally just a discussion of what is occurring and what the overall features might do, not so much a discussion of whether a tropical cyclone will develop. That's where the comes in. It's got favorable upper-level conditions and warm waters ahead of it, as noted, but it's also the time of year that anything that moves into such a region needs to be watched. The just doesn't think it'll happen within 2 days.
With the second disturbance, you see more of what the TWD is about and how it should complement the . With most features overland with that disturbance and less organization than seen with Bret or Gert at this point, they aren't going to hammer home about it's chances in the TWD. Given those two prior storms, however, and the forcing provided by the tropical wave, the has to watch it closely. Based off of persistence and climatology, they suggest something could get going once it mvoes out over water. It's purposefully vauge, though.
BTW, while we're talking about products here, just a friendly reminder to everyone on the board that if you are going to copy/paste products into a post on the board, just do the parts that you need to accentuate your discussion, as RC did in the post I'm replying to. Please do not copy/paste the entire product; instead, use a link. Thanks!
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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Looks like the news of the day is the wave that just came off Africa.Really does look good.It will be interesting to see what happens with this one next week.On a different note,We may have a record month in Oct.,given the very warm waters.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Well it's an odd pattern where development is inevitable, and competition believe it or not could become a limiting factor. Africa becomes moist, SAL is not a problem, no significant 's, SST's warm, the whole nine yards. The wave coming off Africa is just too south to recurve, I think that the further west it goes the better chance for development. We also have that feature north of Hispanola, which is also a prime candidate for development, and that area of presistent diffluence off the SC is getting fishy given the pattern.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
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For interests in FL and the Gulf perhaps a few disconcerting model runs.
12z Euro: http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/...s!2005082112!!/
00z : http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cg...;hour=Animation (Edit: Just saw the 12Z run and it looks more realistic http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cg...hour=Animation)
06 also thought provoking (though the 12Z run has moved away from that idea)
There is still some thunderstorm activity there, as shown by the bit of a flareup last few frames: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
For now I'll file that under, "things that make me go hmmm." Pending future runs, perhaps the end of this week/this time next week we will see some interesting developments. As has been noted approximately 800,000 times, the water temps are hot , so it is possible. The explosion in the seems a bit too bullish, but we'll see.
Edited by Big Red Machine (Sun Aug 21 2005 02:46 PM)
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NONAME
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 136
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When are they going to start getting t-numbers for 97L it is an invest so they should have started right.
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I am a young Weather enthusiast and really want to get to college in a couple of years for meteorology.
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Convergence
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sat
Posts: 35
Loc: Ellicott City, Maryland
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What the heck is that feature off of the SC coast? It just looks like a blob of convection that has undergone almost no change over the past 6 hours or so.
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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
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Quote:
For interests in FL and the Gulf perhaps a few disconcerting model runs.
12z Euro: http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/...s!2005082112!!/
00z : http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cg...;hour=Animation (Edit: Just saw the 12Z run and it looks more realistic http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cg...hour=Animation)
06 also thought provoking (though the 12Z run has moved away from that idea)
There is still some thunderstorm activity there, as shown by the bit of a flareup last few frames: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
For now I'll file that under, "things that make me go hmmm." Pending future runs, perhaps the end of this week/this time next week we will see some interesting developments. As has been noted approximately 800,000 times, the water temps are hot , so it is possible. The explosion in the seems a bit too bullish, but we'll see.
Interesting Big Red. All the globals are at least developing weak low pressure around S FL by friday with some offering development in the eastern GOM. Convection today has again flared up with the wave. The was ominous but this explaination from HPC this pm:
DAY 3 WAVE OVER SRN FL/WRN CUBA REFLECTS YDAYS COORDINATION WITH
TPC REGARDING WHAT REMAINS OF FORMER T.D. 10. WHETHER FROM THIS
FEATURE AND/OR ANOTHER UPSTREAM... OP/ENS GUIDANCE GENERALLY
AGREES WITH SHOWING WEAK LOW PRES IN THE VICINITY OF SRN FL BY THE
LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. CANADIAN IS THE EXCEPTION WITH A MUCH
STRONGER LOW....BUT CANADIAN HAS IN THE PAST HAD AN AFFINITY FOR
OVER AMPLIFICATION OF GULF OF MEXICO TROPICAL SYSTEMS. FOR NOW
WILL NOT DEPICT A WELL DEFINED FEATURE...BUT WILL KEEP A SPOT LOW
OVER SRN FLORIDA SINCE ALL MODELS CONCUR THIS MORNING
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RJB
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NONAME
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 136
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Where is the low level center or the low preasure center to 97L does it have any curculation yet and what is the chance it could fallow a track. Like and When are they going to start getting estimates on it?
how are you going to be a meteorologist when you can't spell pressure and circulation. follow? dude, i know you can do better. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Sun Aug 21 2005 08:11 PM)
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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The strongest banding is near 13N/24W, though convection is sparse in that area. It's best shot is if the low tries to reform near 12N/25-26W, nearer the deep convection. It's a large system, so it will take some time to get going...think of how long it took Hilary to get going (about 3 days before it developed) and that sounds about right. The 12Z surface analysis analyzed a 1012mb low there; it's been oscillating between 1009-1012mb the past day or so. They'll start estimates on it once they feel they are needed. Chances are that it will be one for the fish, but it's just too early to tell.
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NONAME
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 136
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Clark/and or/ any mod/met "What are the Factor that would cause 97 to go out to sea or go west and if it did become a storm what are the chance it would be larger than the eastern pacifics hilary because she is about the size of the gulf of mexico so if this thing get going it would be a huge system I think."
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I am a young Weather enthusiast and really want to get to college in a couple of years for meteorology.
Edited by NONAME (Sun Aug 21 2005 04:55 PM)
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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As I noted, it seems to be some form of dirunal convection diffluence thing. Much like a mosoonal wind. I'm not sure if anything will come from it, but in such a undramatic pause there is drama in tthe following scene.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
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Good to hear if the Yucatan Pen. thing gets into the Gulf it would head toward NE Mexico. A ridge will keep it away from Texas is your way of thinking?
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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
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Yup Ron, the trends definitely seem to be pointing to a closed low, of some intensity around S. FL this weekend, likely pushing SW across the state and into the Gulf. We can add the 12Z UK to that line of thinking http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.cg...;hour=Animation
Pretty big explosion of storms on IR with the area in question. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
Edited by Big Red Machine (Sun Aug 21 2005 05:33 PM)
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HURRICANELONNY
Weather Guru
Reged: Sat
Posts: 100
Loc: HOLLYWOOD,FL.
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Ya but that has nothing to do with 97L. That model as most takes 97L out to sea. I think the models are developing a low from an old trof/wave. As for 97L who knows where that will go.Till it develops. 
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Hey guys,
as the from indicates, the system over the SW Yucatan is getting better organised. Visible imagery shows a well organised circulation with clear banding features. The actual 'centre' is currentlyinland but should move offshore tonight. It certainly looks as if this will develop once the system is actually over the BOC. However, i dont expect rapid development / intensification due to its proximity to land. However, i do beleive we will see TD11 / TS Jose by Monday with this system.
The disturbed weather north of PR has been around for days now, and at least it has persistence going for it. I dont see much significant development for a day or two, but it might need to be watched if it makes it to the GOM.
The strong wave and low pressure area south of the CV Islands remains a prominent feature, but looks like it is gonna need at least a day or two to actually get organised. Certainly has potential though.
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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NHC has tasked an INVEST Flight for 18Z tomorrow.
The Bay Of Campeche is the target area.
FLIGHT ONE
A. 22/2100Z
B. AFXXX 01GGA INVEST
C. 22/1800Z
D. 20.0N 93.0W
E. 22/2000Z TO 22/0100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
FLIGHT
A. 23/0600Z,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0211A CYCLONE
C. 23/0230Z
D. 20.0N 94.5W
E. 23/0500Z TO 23/1230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6 HOURLY FIXES IF
THE SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
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Lonny, I was not referring to 97L, I was referring to a system north of Hispaniola. Perhaps I should have made this clearer in my posts. With several areas out there it can get a tad confusing.
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Jekyhe904
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 22
Loc: Jacksonville, Florida
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Yeah, lots of models hinting at development somewhere around florida and Accuweather is hanging onto the idea of something happening off the SE coast ... though they still refer to it as TD10 but I think we may see it become 98L instead then TD11.
Now if the system forms off the southeast coast/gulf, and the system forms in the Yucatan, wouldnt these further erode the atlantic high when they decided to lift north later and provide 97L with a fishing trip??
One other question----Anyone seen tropical model run information on 97L?? I find it hard to believe there have been no runs in now 24 hrs but I cant find anything on it.
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HURRICANELONNY
Weather Guru
Reged: Sat
Posts: 100
Loc: HOLLYWOOD,FL.
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