Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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The latest RECCO ob at 1725Z (1:25 ET) had the aircraft at 23.0 N, 76.1 W.
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hurrark
Unregistered
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
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Rabbit
Weather Master
Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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NHC moved floater 1 over to 99L and floater 2 over to 97L
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Initial Recco observations seem to support at least a tropical depression, however I'm going to wait a bit to make sure. A circulation hasn't been found yet.
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VolusiaMike
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 63
Loc: Ormond Beach, FL
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If you are referring to the recon flight information, I get it from a subscription program called Hurtrack. It takes all the information from and provides it in graphic format. Also provides recon flight data as received and publishes it on a map so you can see where they are...
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NONAME
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 136
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You can find Recon Messeges at the website and go to the left in the blue You will find Aircraft Recon in the Storm info area.
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I am a young Weather enthusiast and really want to get to college in a couple of years for meteorology.
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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So far, the recon appears to traversing the circulation in a counterclockwise manner, flying from the west side of the storm around to the south side now. I'd place the center around 22N/74W -- still somewhat disorganized, maybe not entirely closed off but getting there -- generally drifting WNW. A microwave imager pass from earlier today suggested low-level banding features beginning to develop; the infrared & visible satellite images are beginning to catch up to that. Still broad and overall relatively weak, but it's got warm waters and low shear ahead of it. Scottsvb's post a little while ago pretty much sums up my track thinking for this one -- maybe a bit further south than Erin 1995 and in line with the UKMET & runs earlier today -- with intensity still up in the air. Interests in both Florida and the northern Gulf east of New Orleans need to watch this one.
The first two reports I have from near the storm suggest flight level winds on the west side of the storm of about 25kt and sea level pressures near 1010mb. It'll depend upon what they find on the east side of the system -- and whether there is definitively a closed low or not -- as to whether or not we have a TD at 5pm.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
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Here's a nice high resolution VIS SAT of the bahamas system.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATATL_FLOAT2/anim8vis.html
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RJB
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Floridacane
Weather Guru
Reged: Sat
Posts: 110
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
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I happened to stumble across this collection of models from Penn State. They call it the electronic wall. Looks to have almost every model on there so you won't have to jump around from different websites looking for something. They even have satellites, visible and IR.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/%7Egadomski/ewall.html
Sorry if this is in the wrong area mods!
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What's brewin' everyone?
Lori
Edited by Floridacane (Tue Aug 23 2005 02:26 PM)
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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
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Sounds like if former TD 10 gets into the Gulf it would eventually landfall on the east gulf coast, and not head more west towards Louisiana or Texas, correct? When will they have a better handle on where the storm will track if it does become a depression/storm?
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Rabbit
Weather Master
Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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99L keeps disappearing from the list anytime you click something on the site--i have a feeling they are in the process of changing it and we may have TD12
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Recon is reporting that the area of low pressure with the depression is not where satellite estimates had it pegged and is instead further north, at 23.5N or so. This places the center underneath a new band of curved convection forming SE of San Salvador and east of Rum Cay.
I expect this storm to be upgraded to a tropical depression at 5pm based upon the findings of a definitive closed center of low pressure. As recon has traversed the storm in a counterclockwise pattern, winds have come from the west-southwest on the southern side of the storm to the east on the north side of the circulation. Winds on the eastern side of the storm have been measured as high as 37kt at flight level (which here is about 240m ~ 750-800ft above the surface), with a pressure of about 1010mb. Given these reports, I estimate this will be a 30kt depression -- or, if it continues to organize -- Tropical Storm -- at 5pm. Still waiting on the first vortex report from the recon, but that isn't due until closer to 3pm as I recall.
Oh yeah -- 97L -- indications are that the low-level center may be reforming near a mid-level center embedded underneath the deep convection near 17.5N/35.5W. Despite lacking convection for quite some time, this storm has maintained excellent low-level banding features and now appears to be taking that next step towards development. It probably won't beat the Bahamas disturbance as I thought last night, but I do expect this to become a tropical storm before it gets to 45W...perhaps even 40W if the center is indeed reforming underneath the deep convection. Probably won't be upgraded at 5pm, but might at 11p if trends continue.
Got a feeling this place is going to get active again in quite a hurry...
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
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Now officially a TD
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
235 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2005
...TWELFTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMING OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIADSAAT+shtml/231837.shtml?
Edited by Big Red Machine (Tue Aug 23 2005 02:44 PM)
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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I put up a new main page article on this because it'll be getting a lot of attention soon. I don't expect much out of it, but it will be interesting to track.
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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
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HPC confirms Clark's thinking on the system.
From this afternoons NWS HPC Extended Weather discussion:
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
218 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2005
VALID 12Z FRI AUG 26 2005 - 12Z TUE AUG 30 2005
FINAL MEDIUM RANGE DISCUSSION...
TO THE SOUTH OF THESE HIGHER LAT ANOMALIES...MID LEVEL HTS ARE
FCST TO BE NEAR NORMAL IN A FLAT RIDGE ACRS THE SRN TIER OF THE
NATION. THE STRENGTH OF THIS RIDGE AND THE DEGREE OF WEAKENESS IN
IT WL BE CRUCIAL FOR THE TRACK OF THE AREA OF TROPICAL WEATHER
INVOF THE BAHAMAS THAT MAY AFFECT FL AND THE NERN AND NCNTRL GULF
THIS PERIOD. THE MAJORITY OF THE MED RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATE THIS
LOW MOVG ACRS THE SRN PORTION OF THE FL PENINSULA AND INTO THE ERN
GULF BY LATE IN THE WEEK AS IT CONTS ON THE S SIDE OF THE WEAK UPR
RIDGE. THE CONTS TO BE ON THE RT HAND SIDE OF THE MODEL SOLNS
IN SHOWING A TRACK ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FL FRI-SUN AND THEN
ALONG THE SERN COAST MON-TUE. THE ONE THING ALL THE MODELS DO
AGREE ON IS THAT THERE WL BE EVENTUAL WEAKENESS IN THIS UPR RIDGE
FROM THE STREAM OF STRONG SYSTEMS PUSHING IN THE NRN STREAM ALONG
THE U.S./CAN BORDER. THIS WOULD THEN SUPPORT A MORE NWD COMPONENT
TO THE TRACK AND POSSIBLE EFFECTS FOR THE ERN GULF COAST. THE
LATEST MED RANGE PROGS ARE FOLLOWING THE TPC PREFERRED AND MODEL
CONSENSUS SOLN...ALBEIT SLOWER...IN PUSHING ACRS SCNTRL FL
FRI-SAT (DAYS 3-4)..INTO THE ERN GULF BY SUN (DAY 5). AT THIS
POINT THE ADVERTISED WEAKNESS IN THE E-W RIDGE ALONG THE GULF
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MORE NWD COMPONENT TO THE TRACK...WITH A
THREAT FOR THE CNTRL TO ERN GULF COASTAL AREA BY THE BEGINNNING OF
NEXT WEEK. SEE LATEST TPC DISCUSSIONS FOR LATEST UPDATES ON THIS
STORMS POTENTIAL.
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RJB
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troy2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
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Wave out east is lookin better. TD12 on the horizon (literally and figuratively),...yep gonna get busy around here...
Havent been on yet this season. Shuttle's been keepin me busy...
hello everyone
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Rabbit
Weather Master
Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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so am i right to assume that if an invest disappears off of that it is about to be changed to a TD then ? (unless of course it is dissipating which this one isnt)
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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good obs clark,, hard to go against recon but I dont see it. LOL. I think they found a vortex in the main flow. I think the center is down more near 22.8N and near 75W.
Reasons comparing are there is nothing on the recon to show a closed low up there ( maybe just a vortex swirl) while the one near 22.8 clearly shows a rotation with a wsw,sse and ene wind. I guess Ill see if recon outdoes me. Just to note people,,recon is the best source of info, so this is just my speculation,,its probably that there are many vortexs in a broad circulation on a developing system. Anyways thanks Clark for the update on the recon.
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Rabbit
Weather Master
Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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this is likely developing in a similar manner to earlier in the year in that when it first formed there was a closed circulation, but no difinitive swirl or center, but instead a broad disorganized rotation
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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new thread is up,,go to that forum
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