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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Ryan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
Re: Tropical Storm path *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* [Re: Frank P]
      #49251 - Wed Aug 24 2005 08:35 PM

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


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OrlandoDan
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 443
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: Tropical Storm path [Re: Ryan]
      #49252 - Wed Aug 24 2005 08:40 PM

I could swear (maybe not) but the last frame of the radar makes it look like she is going WSW.

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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: katrina radar [Re: LI Phil]
      #49253 - Wed Aug 24 2005 08:40 PM

That motion still looks wnw at the center to me. Center is still filled in by the looks of the radar presentation. Close to west though. Boca to West Palm looks to be the spot to me.

--------------------
Jim


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JG
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 55
Re: katrina radar [Re: LI Phil]
      #49254 - Wed Aug 24 2005 08:41 PM

Ok, question for the experts. In my 25 plus years down here in Florida, I don't ever recall hearing of a closed eyewall (Per the recon report) with a 48kt system. Is this an indication of a pulse cycle with strengthening about to occur or?

The other question is about the potential for the storm to parallel the West Coast of Florida which would be horrendous, IMHO. What do the models show as far as the low moving through the Southeast in time to catch Katrina in the GOM and turn it back NE? The models on this storm are all over the place after it makes initial landfall, so as usual, your input is appreciated.

Thanks again in advance for all of the great information and education I get from all of the pros here.


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: katrina radar [Re: LI Phil]
      #49255 - Wed Aug 24 2005 08:42 PM

two things obvious to me from this presentation... center looking better on radar, deeper convection building around it, and its moving just north of due west.... last wobble was west, see what the next couple of wobbles bring...

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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
Re: katrina radar [Re: Frank P]
      #49256 - Wed Aug 24 2005 08:51 PM

No doubt a slight north component but mostly west now. Center is looking better on radar. Looking to see a slow down in forward speed the next 6-12 hrs. This thing could sit off the east coast & pound it like Frances (albeit hopefully weaker).

--------------------
RJB


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: katrina radar [Re: Ron Basso]
      #49257 - Wed Aug 24 2005 08:54 PM

Using the NWS experiemental radar this is what I have plotted
at 7:53 it was at 26.02n and 77.65w
at 8:44 it was at 25.99n and 77.83w

not much north component in the past 51 minutes.... off radar

Edited by Frank P (Wed Aug 24 2005 08:56 PM)


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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc:
Re: katrina radar [Re: Ron Basso]
      #49258 - Wed Aug 24 2005 08:54 PM

The weather patterns are not set up for it to sit off the coast.
It's going to keep moving. There has been a strong Westerly flow
over all of Florida the past several days.


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Jekyhe904
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 22
Loc: Jacksonville, Florida
Re: katrina radar [Re: Ron Basso]
      #49260 - Wed Aug 24 2005 08:56 PM

I see what appears to be a south of west movement on radar but also note that this is probably an illusion due to temporary weakenning of showers/storms near the center. I am sure it is actually moving west or just north of west still

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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
Re: katrina radar [Re: Jekyhe904]
      #49261 - Wed Aug 24 2005 09:03 PM

I noticed the same exact thing. Whether or not this is just a weakening of the showers and I guess, an ERC, it needs to be watched.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/amx_N0Z_lp.shtml

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
Re: katrina radar [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #49262 - Wed Aug 24 2005 09:05 PM

Quote:

The weather patterns are not set up for it to sit off the coast.
It's going to keep moving. There has been a strong Westerly flow
over all of Florida the past several days.




Models slow it down. Its about 160 miles east of Ft Laud. Landfall per NHC is around 5 am Friday. Do the math.

--------------------
RJB


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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Movement [Re: Jekyhe904]
      #49263 - Wed Aug 24 2005 09:09 PM

I agree, seems due west or even a hair south of west. Looks like the official track and most opinions on here have this storm coming right at me(not a wishcast). My weather station will be up and running as long as I have power. Current pressure is 29.90" and steady.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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native
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 148
Loc: SE Florida
Re: katrina radar [Re: Frank P]
      #49264 - Wed Aug 24 2005 09:11 PM

Listening to Jim @ hurricanecity on real player while I'm posting here....real interesting thoughts! Makes good point ...Katrina's roots are from XTD10..passed through? You guessed it....Hebert's Box.

I'm not going to engage in the "the storm's moving this way & that" I prefer to not stay glued to radar and watch the wobbles. They're too much...they drive me looney.

NHC is doing a great job (as per usual) and there is no good reason at this time to doubt the forecast track....intensity is another matter.


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: katrina radar [Re: Ron Basso]
      #49265 - Wed Aug 24 2005 09:12 PM

well the models might slow it down but Katrina certainly doesn't look to be slowing down very much attm... maybe she's not listening to them just yet... looks to be moving at a decent clip.... I think if it doesn start slowing down soon its going to get to the coast sooner rather than later... its convection is really looking impressive off the latest IR loops...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html


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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
Re: Katrina Forms... Hurricane Watches up for East Coast of Florida Vero South [Re: MikeC]
      #49266 - Wed Aug 24 2005 09:14 PM

Our local meteorolist said there is a high sitting over Texas and Lousiana which will keep Katrina away from us. He thinks the Florida panhandle is in for a landfall (the second one). He also said the gulf waters were at 91 degrees, the hottest he has ever seen it. After Katrina crosses Florida and heads for her second landfall how intense do you all think the storm will become in the Gulf before she hits?

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: katrina radar [Re: Frank P]
      #49267 - Wed Aug 24 2005 09:15 PM

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM Katrina INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2005 edited~danielw

..KATRINA BEGINS TO TURN MORE WESTWARD...RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
INDICATES LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...

RADAR AND RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE THAT Katrina HAS BEGUN TO
TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND IS NOW MOVING BETWEEN THE WEST-NORTHWEST
AND WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. THIS MOTION WILL BRING THE CENTER
THROUGH THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND INTO THE
FLORIDA STRAITS THURSDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. Katrina HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRENGTHENING DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES ...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.


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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc:
Re: katrina radar [Re: Frank P]
      #49268 - Wed Aug 24 2005 09:16 PM

It may move a bit faster or a bit slower, my point was simply that it wasn't going to sit ans spin off the coast w/o moving.
Didn't mean to step on any toes. I'll get my calculator out....


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Daytonaman
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 28
Loc: Port Orange, FL
Re: katrina radar [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #49269 - Wed Aug 24 2005 09:16 PM

Most of today there has been a lot of discussion regarding the appearance of the eye...being the area with no precip on the radar....after looking at the LRRidge radar and taking off the topo...the center actually appear to be to the "EAST" of the above mentioned eyelike feature....have I been looking at the wrong thing this evening?
Thanks to all who work so hard to teach those of us without the knowledge but the thrist to know.... Long Range Ridge Radar in Miami
Meant to the east not the west...

Edited by Daytonaman (Wed Aug 24 2005 09:20 PM)


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twizted sizter
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 184
bulletin [Re: danielw]
      #49271 - Wed Aug 24 2005 09:23 PM

The Straits? Is that a typo like earlier?

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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: katrina radar [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #49272 - Wed Aug 24 2005 09:25 PM

wxwatcher2 I agree with you ... I don't think it's going to sit off the east coast of FL, my point is that I think it has been moving faster than the models or the NHC forecasted during the evening hours.... and I think there will ulitmately be a direct corrolation between forward speed and when it makes its second landfall... slow speed = eastern panhandle and points east, faster speed = AL/western panhandle.... remains to be seen what she has in mind for later on tonight relative to speed....

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